Photo: AFP
The world trade system faces threats from many directions, economists say. Photo: AFP

Using data from the Netherlands CPB on world trade volume I calculated rolling QoQ change (change in the average of each three month period vs the preceding three month period).

There definitely is a sharp slowdown, roughly on the magnitude of 2016.

Rolling QoQ change

The year on year picture looks a bit better:

World imports YoY

To put matters in context: US import volume has doubled since 2000, and emerging Asia has more than tripled.

World import volume

If we set 2011 at 100, though, the picture is a bit different: the US and emerging Asia lead import volume growth. Japan and the eurozone are much lower.

Import volume

I very much doubt that emerging Asia could replace American demand.