The trade war with the United States could cost China 700,000 jobs in the short-term and nearly three million if the conflict spirals out of control. Economists led by Haibin Zhu at JPMorgan Chase outlined the scenarios in a note.
Job losses would kick-in if US President Donald Trump wheels out 25% tariffs on Chinese imports worth another US$200 billion and Beijing retaliates by devaluing the yuan, or renminbi, by 5%, as well as slapping duties on US goods.
If China fails to take action, up to three million people could lose their jobs, JPMorgan revealed earlier this week, according to Bloomberg news agency.
The study highlighted the impact of tit-for-tat tariffs on China which is grappling with a cooling economy. Growth has slowed across a range of sectors while Beijing is struggling to contain ballooning local government and corporate debt.
Outlining various models, the multinational investment bank said in the worst-case scenario, 5.5 million jobs could be lost and 1.3 percentage points shaved off gross domestic product growth in the world’s second-largest economy.
“If the US further escalates the tariff war, the impact on China will be larger,” they wrote in the note, adding that this would include rising unemployment. “If unemployment increases sharply, it will change the policy reaction function and the risk is biased towards bolstered policy easing.”
5.5 million jobs in a worst case scenario seems like a big number, & no doubt those people will suffer. However, relative to the Zhu Rongji-era SoE reforms + Asian financial crisis (50+ million lost), & the ’08-’09 financial crisis (20-25 million lost), 5.5m is a paltry number & is completely manageable.
LoL, the idiot writer of this junk article don’t even bother to check any data before writing any articles.
for China, we donnot care how many jobs will lose, what we are sure is.that. the USA will lose the war if they continue, do you see that the USA has suggested to resume meetings with Chinese government. We will win.
Good luck with THAT… the US might have been able to get the rest of the West to align on the trade war, IF it wasn’t also in a de facto trade war with the rest of them too. Even then that’s very uncertain at this point.
ulol, gago, mga sira ulo. intindihin mo 2 sabi ko
This article is actually…too long. It shoud have eight worlds only: in a US-China trade war, China loses. Period. The US will certainly feel some pain (rising consumer prices and machine parts, etc.), but any pain induced on the US, it will befall China magnified by 10 times. The math is simple: China has a surplus of some $360 billion and official Chinese media reported in 2015 that one job is created by RMB100,000 worth of export.
Right… "I" don’t know what I’m talking about… lol… what a great come back…
The Americans can’t even get the EU to comply with sanctions on Iran, you expect them to just toe to the line on China?
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/25/eu-russia-and-china-join-forces-to-dodge-iran-sanctions.html
The EU will do what every pragmatist would do in this situation – they’ll play both sides to maximize their own commercial benefits, while filling every void the Americans leave open (an inevitable result of PRC retaliatory tariffs) so as to capture a greater share of the Chinese market. They’ve already started doing this in the auto & chemicals sectors, I doubt they’ll stop there, unless they’re just content to eternally remain subservient vassal states to the US.
China has been cheating and undermining the US for a long time.
Because it doesn’t say what you want it to say?
Because it doesn’t say what you want it to say?