Despite New Delhi’s official foreign policy on Afghanistan, which consists of an exclusive relationship with the Afghan central government regardless of who controls Kabul, it has hustled to diversify its political investment in the context of four decades of conflicts in the country.
In fact India’s economic and military rise as the regional hegemon in South Asia and its strategic partnership with the United States have created a unique opportunity for the Indian government to reassert its historical and traditional influence in Afghanistan, and beyond in Central Asia. However, recent developments in Afghanistan and in the region indicate that India might lose the benefit of its investment in the country.
India, like most of Afghanistan’s neighbors and regional powers, has learned the hard way how to reach out to various warring parties in the country. For instance, despite being a close partner of the former communist regime in Kabul, New Delhi had little choice but to reach out to the various mujahideen factions in order to safeguard its traditional place in Kabul even before the demise of the communist regime in 1992. However, it was unsuccessful in establishing a meaningful contact with the Taliban when they took over in 1996, which undermined its ability to intervene when Indian Airlines Flight 814 was hijacked and grounded in Kandahar in December 1999.
Meanwhile, after the US and NATO military intervention, followed by the collapse of the Taliban regime in 2001, New Delhi has emerged as one of the most valuable regional partners for the United States and an influential ally of the Afghan government, as well as the biggest regional donor for Afghanistan. In addition, it has won a unique place in the hearts and minds of ordinary Afghans through its cultural and soft-power influence and tremendous investments in reconstruction of Afghanistan economic infrastructures.
However, India’s mishandling of local Afghan politics over the past 17 years has significantly reduced its influence among major political parties in Afghanistan. While the Afghan people continue to appreciate its contributions to the reconstruction and development of the country, its traditional allies who fought against the Taliban in the 1990s have distanced themselves from India and are being wooed by Pakistan.
Recently, all major regional powers, except India, have been trying to carve a niche for themselves in the future of Afghanistan in the context of an ultimate political settlement.
For instance, Russia has taken the diplomatic initiative to build a regional consensus through organizing major regional conferences on Afghanistan in Russia and allied countries in Central Asia. A planned peace conference, which was set for September 4 but was postponed on a personal request from Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, is an indication of Russia’s growing cloud in shaping the future of Afghanistan, because even the Taliban approved of Moscow’s initiative and indicated their willingness to attend the conference.
Similarly, China has sped up its engagement in Afghanistan. Aside from its unique role in the Afghan peace process through its strategic partnership with Pakistan and because of its improved ties with the Taliban, it has established for the first time bilateral security cooperation with Kabul.
The Chinese military has been assisting its Afghan counterparts in anti-terrorism operations and capacity building for the Afghan forces. Meanwhile, the latest announcement of Beijing’s decision to build a military base in the strategic Wakhan corridor bordering China, Tajikistan, and Pakistan-administered Kashmir is considered a bold move and an unprecedented decision by the Chinese leadership to intervene militarily in Afghanistan.
Meanwhile, India’s efforts to open a transit corridor to Afghanistan and Central Asia through Iran’s Chabahar port, thus bypassing Pakistan, came to a standstill because of the renewed US sanctions on Iran. This is by far the biggest setback in India’s strategic investment in the context of regional competition for access to tremendous energy resources in Central Asia.
Furthermore, the US decision to seek an acceptable political outcome in Afghanistan and to negotiate directly with the Taliban has caught India off guard. In addition, India’s main regional rival Pakistan will play a key role by accommodating an ultimate political settlement in Afghanistan and in exchange will demand important concessions from the United States and the Afghan government.
Knowing that any political settlement in Afghanistan will require the blessing of all major regional stakeholders, India will rely on the United States to have a say. India will not have any direct influence and will not receive a VIP invitation to the negotiation table, because its political allies in the Afghan government have become irrelevant.
Also, India stands alone in the region and has been isolated within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. As I wrote in an April opinion article for Asia Times, we are increasingly witnessing open competition between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the SCO in Afghanistan, and India will have little influence in shaping the outcome of SCO’s decisions on Afghanistan.
Hence India’s 17 years of tremendous investment in Afghanistan is at great risk, and it might be the only regional power sidelined from the peace negotiations, because it has lost its influence among Afghan political forces and is unable to influence other regional players.
Kindly review my article on the same subject:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201806/22/WS5b2ca6a7a3103349141ddf6e.html
Logical analysis.
The reality is that India was supporting Anti Pakistan terrorists based in Afghanistan and was telling the Kabul regime that good terrorists will remain good but unfortunately those good ones turned their back and joined IS-k hahaha
India made a colossal mistake in investing in Afghanistan on peace projects. It seems Afghanistan is lost to Islamic forces one way or the other. Pity.
Its not India that a made a mistake but Congress that neglected everything in India interest coz they were busy stealing. Not sure how much Modi can remedy Congress’ follies!
One of the most ludicrous analyses I have read from a so called “expert”. Seems like it is every Pakistani’s wet dream to see India’s expulsion from Afghanistan and the cessation of india’s important role in humanitarian and nation building efforts there. It is strange to see that come from a country which allegedly wants a “peaceful and prosperous” Afghanistan. The desperation is unmistakable and its amusing to see how self proclaimed experts of Pakistan wishfully harp on foreign powers to exclude India from Afghanistan. However all this desperation and obsession with India is understandable. After all the country of Pakistan is a failed state, globally isolated, on the verge of economic collapse and world renowned for propagating terrorism. Let alone having any meaningful contribution in Afghanistan, they can’t even secure cooking gas, infrastructure and a safe environment for their own people… yet confidently predict about India’s fate. No wonder Pakistan today finds itself in such an unfortunate situation.
Bang on point brother.
Only time will tell, not somebody sitting on a chair and predicting the future.
A terrorist nation always looks everyone with the perspective of terrorism. World might spit on you,Chinese might find your education, but your brain would never grow.
Looks like all old Pakistani retired uncles are fulfilling their wet dreams by writing such dumb articles.
First few lines into the article,then I looked at who wrote it and read the disclaimer at the bottom of the page by Asia Times. I was like it’s useless to read a Pakistani talking about investments, economy and most importantly unbiased reality. Cannot expect much from these guys anyways, matter of fact what good did they do to the world in their entire 71 years of miserable existence. Not mentioning the creation of Taliban and black marketing nukes.
Logic applies for a Pakistani brain only.
MindTree-Hyderabad
Of course. At least in this article all is rationale and logical.
Looks like this Afghan occupation won’t end well for the US and NATO……lol
Evidently both US and NATO are on the verge of a monumental defeat. 17 years of a totally failed policy and occupation.
The US/ NATO thugs have been defeated in Afghanistan. This is all there is to know. $7 trillion and counting dollars lost in this bogus war on terror with nothing to show for results. Nobody is scared of the US anymore. Lets hope IK sends that fat bastard pompeo home, straight from the airport.
Disgusting article
US exits…India exits. Simple equation. US exits – Afghanistan doomed to revert to the 16th century. Another simple equation.
Are u aware for what Pakistan is known for? Get some knowledge and senses before commenting. Blind followers of terrorist nation
????
However much the Muslims may dislike India they cannot prosper without Indian support. We’ve seen this happening for over a 1000 years. Everytime, hordes from Central Asia came to India to loot and plunder without which they would have perished. Today, if the Pakis & Afghans and Iranians don’t trade with India it’ll spell their doom.
It’s great to learn that India is sidelined in the South East and central Asia due to the alliance with US. China is all powerful and is going to be mighter than US. But on yesterday again a blast has happened in Kabul. Afghanistan is playing it’s home match in India and they are practising also. Imran said that he was going to revise the CPEC agreement with China in the line of Malaysia. Iran is a natural friend of India and the most of the Arab countries are with India. Russia never said that she is going to vote against India in any matter. So please clarify all these points in light of your protection of China as a "super power" and mighter than "US".
India is exploiting its neighbour like Nepal badly. So it is suffering because of incorrect diplomacy.
A very rationale and thought-provoking article by a guy who understands the ground realities in Afghanistan and the region. Bravo
MindTree-Hyderabad
You are as stupid as you sound.. It’s dumb for a dumb Indian because you are high on cow urine you dick head!
MindTree-Hyderabad
You shut your stupid stinky mouth and keep drinking your favorite cow urine
MindTree-Hyderabad
Freedom for kashmir and freedom for Khalistan.. That is the only future you indian cowards can have
Vipul Gurav
Yes Pakistan is well known for kicking Indian buttocks time to time.. And you Indians are well known for 3 things.. 1) killing of unarmed women and children in kashmir and elsewhere 2) cow urine is your favorite booze 3) you Indians are the ugliest in the world . Now shut your ugly Indian mouth and go n terrorize some unarmed women and children until brave Pakistan army will show up and kick some coward Indian ass
Uncle wake up.. You drink cow urine way too much
Pakistani propaganda. Pakistan should worry about going to the dogs.
India should take back Pakistan and export the freaks to Saudi Arabia.
Anil Tiwari, first of all I congratulate you for behaving like human beings, though you are an Indian. For, most of them are uncivilized sheep. Yes , I agree with you, today’s world is mutually inter dependant, So, it’s better to have trade to mitigate the political hatred created by our dirty politicians along the both sides of the border, but that can happen only when you stop being boastful and hegemonic to obviously smaller looking neighbours. When you will give us respect we will respond you with the same, when you will try to thteaten us, we will retaliate the same manner. Tit for tat.
Joe fernandes, and what would you like to say about 3 million beggars, begging in Saudi Arabia? If Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Muslim coutries kick them out, India will be the biggest beggar in the world.
India should take back the Pakistan? Or Pakistan should take back the whole India where our ancestors ruled for 800 years. Don’t you think that it’s the right time now and we desrve to take the empire of our ancestors back ?
Being an sacrifice goat ,India must be self focussed and achieve great objective for self development .
Muhammad Fayyaz the world couldn’t live without India. Whether it was Rome, Muslims, Columbus and other European they all made a beeline towards India. There are so many like Md Ali above who claim to be followers of the religion of peace but act otherwise.
Mohammad Ali hahahah hey camepisscola drinker converted mulla India not lost kashmir to Ur surrender army he was Raja Hari Singh who lost
????… Brave Pakistani
Mohammad Ali woaawwww wat a realome answer to the foursome gang banged children of flith
Imran S Nazir
The pleasure is mine brother????
Modi is a bigger chuti than congress people. They atleast had the country united, now Gao bhagats are roaming around and India is raising its own brand of terrorists.
Paramjeet Singh Exactly. Pakistani’s assume they are powerful and amazing even when their country is in deep shit with Terrorists and Islamic Extremists ruining their country. They have almost no exports or business and depend solely on donations from US or China. Now that China is entering into a recession and US has changed policy, they think cursing Indians and trying to influence International PR will work. However India doesnt get as affected since we are self sustaining economy and 4th largest military force in the world and currently helps other countries like UK launch their Satellites while Pakistak still depends on its Cricket Heros for everything. Iran’s sanctions will not affect India-Iran relations since India may negotiate hard with the US. Also Afghan people have much better relations with Indians then Pakistanis who have always supported those who hurt Afghanistan and caused its destruction.
Mohammad Ali Well what the world thinks about India and Pakistan is well documented. India – Developing Nation, Pakistan – Terrorist Nation. 10% of Kashmiris do not represent Kashmir. If they want independence, they can fight for it by winning elections, which they cant since they dont have majority support. Because the majority know that their sustainance depends on India. Once independent, who will give them money? Pakistan who itself has sold its infrastructure projects to China by taking loans it wont repay ever or China which is already seeing the Belt and Road become overexpensive due to bad planning and is seeing its economy crumble under 30 trillion dollar debt.
Since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 Pakistan has played a major role in its liberation and taking care of millions of Afghans who took shelter in Pakistan. As Muslim countries both Pakistan and Afghanistan enjoy a special brotherly relationship.
India’s involvement in Afghanistan was unnatural and was done exclusively to create a wedge between the two brotherly, neighbouring, nations.
I am glad India is finally seeing the writing on the wall that as an unnatural intruder she has no role in Afghanistan.
Any Indian here who thinks this is logical should go and get a CT scan of their brains….are you kidding me?? The largest democracy in the world who is helping Afghanistan develop and grow would get sidelined ? India has always maintained neutrality in world affairs while Pakistan acted like the street dog licking every country throwing bones at it….keep faith in India aur dharm ke column mein Hindu Muslim nhi Indian likhna seekho YEH DESH KI BAAT HO RHI HAI BJP CONGRESS KI NHI