Adopting similar stances on free trade, counterterrorism and global issues such as climate change, recently Sino-Indian relations have become more multi-dimensional in nature. Working together on platforms such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has produced a new synergy between the two nations that could prove auspicious for South Asia.
On the world stage also, China and India account for more than a third of the global population and 20% of its gross domestic product. Not only that, they are the biggest, fastest-growing and most populous developing countries, so this is not a minor development.
India has been in the process of a rapprochement with China for the past few months. Bilateral ties have been on an upward trajectory since several high-level visits this year, the most significant of which was Indian Prime Minister Modi’s Wuhan summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Having met as many as 15 times in the last four years, the two leaders have developed a good understanding, and attending the SCO Summit in Qingdao, Modi affirmed in his speech, “We have reached a stage where physical and digital connectivity is changing the definition of geography. Therefore, connectivity with our neighborhood and in the SCO region is our priority.”
Several factors may have contributed to the new synchronicity in Sino-Indian relations, such as the prevalent US tendency toward protectionism that has affected even its allies such as South Korea and India, forcing the latter to rebalance itself closer to home. Notwithstanding the fact that it is described as a “leading global power and major defense partner of the United States” in the 2017 US National Security Strategy, India is still being hit by trade tariffs, and it is being criticized by Washington for its trade policies.
Another factor is the upcoming election in India, ahead of which Modi has to present a better economic outlook for the next five years. Negotiating a new bilateral Sino-Indian economic agreement, India could also do with some help to boost Modi’s Make in India policy.
When he launched the policy in September 2014, the Indian PM pledged to create 100 million new jobs by 2022 and make manufacturing account for around 25% of GDP by 2025. However, according to the World Bank, only 650,000 new jobs had been provided while manufacturing accounted for just 16% of the economy by financial year 2017-18, and economic growth slowed from 7.1% to 5.7% in 2018. Demonetization, inadequate infrastructure and tough labor laws are said to be the reasons behind this failure of “Make in India.”
Thus an economically cooperative relationship with China has become a necessity for India. It requires Chinese infrastructure investment to bring back vibrant economic growth and fulfill its dream of becoming an economic and geopolitical powerhouse by 2025.
Having the resources and authority to help build India’s industrial foundation, China could enhance its prospects with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Recently, India put together a list of goods that are becoming costlier because of the trade war and which could be exported to China instead of the United States. Increasing exports would also help reduce the US$63 billion trade deficit it has with China, its top trading partner.
Trade value between the two nations reached a high of $84.4 billion recently, and generally there is 20% growth every year. By lowering barriers on some Indian goods, in turn China has also made efforts to address Indian reservations over the trade deficit.
From the foreign-affairs aspect, organizations like the SCO and trade and infrastructure projects like the BRI are binding the region closer in a mutually beneficial equation. Unfortunately, both the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) have failed to deliver, and this region needs to find common ground to achieve a better understanding.
At present, South Asia lacks unity and integration, and good relations between the two major powers, China and India, is a good omen. Even as bilateral relations between China and India become more tightly knit, it may be just a matter of time before Pakistan and India also sort out their issues. Playing a supportive role, China could help build bridges, and even if just a modicum of success is achieved, an India-Pakistan-China triangle could ensure the long-term peace and prosperity of South Asia.
Finally, in recent times, India has become the world’s largest weapons importer by purchasing 13% of the arms in the world, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). In the future, those finances could be re-channeled to poverty reduction and economic development if vibrant geo-economic relations are established.
Focusing on preserving global free trade and increasing economic bilateral interaction, Sino-Indian diplomatic and economic ties have immense potential to transform the whole region if they can achieve sustainable, coordinated priorities.
India-China relation is very much influenced by how India views its relationship with the West and especially with the US. If the US has a very accommodating and India friendly President they take on a more confrontational attitude towards China. It’s just that President Trump is erratic and doesn’t care too much about US-India relationship that New Delhi turns to Beijing. The whole of the Indian establishment has always view China with suspicion. This has hindered both sides from developing a full mutually beneficial relationship with India attitude changing depending on how US plays it.
Thank you Sabrina, I wrote an article recently, how Pakistan can support China in sourcing some of its Agricultuaral products from Pakistan after imposition of heavy tariffs by US. Let’s focus on boosting Pakistan’s economy.
Please go through my article; http://www.atimes.com/how-pakistan-could-gain-from-us-china-trade-war/
A very biase and misleading attempt.
However, Pakistan and US has enjoyed close alliance since Cold War era. Pakistan was always frontline state with US, weather it is Communism Threat or War on Terror. We have enjoyed close friendship for 7 decades. US military knows the potential of Pakistan. India can not replace Pakistan in any way its role in Afghanistan. We believe in peace and has been playing vital role for the stability of this region. India may not succeed in damaging peace and security of our region. US think tanks, intellectuals, civil and military bureaucracy understands Pakistan. Indian propaganda may not serve any purpose.
China may want peace, but Modi wants war.
It is not in the interest of neither Hindu neocons nor Western neocons to have peace in Asia.
Remember, Divide and Rule English continue their hegemony with Divide and Leave and Still Rule in Ireland, ME, and South Asia, selling arms to both parties and laugh all the way to the bank.
Is it a paid article? For full harmony:
a) China should not support Pakistani terrorists on UN list in Security council.
b) Must Promise in writing to make no military bases in Indian ocean.
c) Allow India in NSG and UN Security Council as permanent member
d) Reduce Trade deficity by atleast 50 billion.
e) Stop arming Pakistan to teeth.
China will do nothing of the above, but expect everything from India. It is not going to work. I personally want harmony, but it can’t be one sided.
Please respect leaders of other country. You are no part of India, but at least dont forget humble culture of India. Your ancestors were Indians, atleast respect them.