Entering his third year in office, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte faces a rising uproar over his increasingly contested foreign policy, with different political factions pulling the country in opposed geopolitical directions.
Duterte has gradually abandoned the country’s policy of equilateral balancing vis-à-vis great powers, namely by refusing to overtly side with America or China, in favor of a strategic leaning towards Beijing.
As the controversial leader faces growing international isolation over his human rights record and scorched-earth drug war, Duterte has found a reliable strategic patron in Beijing, which has offered unconditional diplomatic, political and developmental support.
At the same time, the country’s defense establishment and media-intelligentsia complex clearly prefers to maintain robust security ties with America and remains skeptical of China’s ultimate intentions.
As a result, the nation’s foreign policy has become increasingly unpredictable, erratic and fluid, with no clear direction in the coming year. Duterte will give his third State of Nation Address (SONA) this month, an address his spokesmen say will “come from the heart” and independent analysts will parse for indications of his next policy moves.
Much will depend on Duterte’s ability to arrive at a mutually agreed modus vivendi with Beijing on fast rising tensions in the contested South China Sea, as well as on the scale of China’s promised massive investments in the Philippines.
In his second SONA last July, Duterte presented himself as the champion of a new era of self-confidence and defiance in Philippine foreign policy.
Channeling the mid-20th century Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), the Filipino leader delivered an impassioned Nehruvian speech, underscoring the need for the nation to master its own destiny in a world dominated by Eastern and Western superpowers.
After a century of strategic subservience to the West, Duterte argued, the Philippines has finally become a truly “independent nation” under his watch.
In the same speech, Duterte promised to “pursue good relations with all nations anchored on an independent foreign policy” which follows the “basic tenets of sovereign equality, mutual respect and non-interference.”
Duterte assured his citizens that he “we will uphold and promote our national interests in the international community” by “strengthen[ing] and seek[ing] partnership with those who share our values.”
To Duterte, an “independent” foreign policy means brooking no criticism from outside powers in domestic affairs, particularly his scorched-earth war on drugs, which rights groups claim has taken as many as 12,000 lives in the past two years.
The government denies the figure is that high, though concerns are rising the campaign is entering a dangerous new phase with the unexplained assassinations of two provincial mayors this week.
The government also this week detained then deported an American Christian missionary who was reportedly involved in “political” activities. Duterte earlier ordered the expulsion of an Australian Catholic nun who had spoken out critically of his drug war.
It’s precisely within this context that Duterte has strongly gravitated towards China as his ultimate strategic patron.
During his SONA speech, Duterte happily underscored “cultivat[ing] warmer relations with China through bilateral dialogues”, claiming they had led to an “easing of tensions between the two countries and improved negotiating environment” in the South China Sea.
Soon thereafter, the tough-talking leader proceeded to lambast Western allies, including the United States and the European Union, for “interfering” in Philippine domestic affairs.
Duterte even unleashed a flurry of resentment against America for its cruel treatment of Filipinos at the turn of the 20th century when it colonized the country.
In many ways, the speech provided an accurate portrait of his strategic mindset, namely the centrality of non-interference in his hierarchy of strategic needs.
In contrast to the West, Duterte sees China as a supportive partner, which has offered all-out diplomatic and logistical assistance for his controversial drug war.
Whether in the United Nations or any other multilateral fora, Beijing has repeatedly called on the international community to respect the Philippines’ sovereignty vis-à-vis Duterte’s domestic policies.
In exchange, a visibly grateful Duterte has incessantly expressed his “love” for Chinese leaders, particularly President Xi Jinping, and even once quipped about the Philippines becoming a “province” of China.
He has consistently presented China as his personal ‘protector’ against domestic threats, including alleged coup plots by opposition members, while enjoining smaller nations to be “meek” and “humble” in order to receive China’s “mercy.”
During the Philippines’ chairmanship last year of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), Duterte told the international community that the South China Sea disputes are “better left untouched”, reiterating China’s call for bilateral rather than multilateral negotiations.
He has also repeatedly downplayed China’s accelerated reclamation activities in and militarization of Philippine-claimed land features in the South China Sea, including the deployment of surface-to-air-missiles, anti-cruise ballistic missiles, and electronic jamming equipment to the Spratly chain of islands.
Duterte has also been dismissive of Chinese harassment of Filipino fishermen straddling the Philippine-claimed Scarborough Shoal. He controversially described extortion of Filipino fishermen’s precious catch in exchange for expired noodles and cheap cigarettes as “barter” trade.
And yet, as Duterte enters his third year in office, he is yet to exercise full subjective control over the defense establishment, which remains suspicious of China and has gradually revived defense cooperation with America.
The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) has repeatedly reiterated its “constitutional duties” to defend the Philippines’ sovereign claims in the South China Sea, while the Philippine mainstream media, influential statesmen and leading opinion-makers have raised critical questions about Duterte’s true motivations for embracing China.
That intensifying friction means the Philippines is still far from fully aligned with China, as Duterte and other influential actors continue to jostle for direction and soul of Philippine foreign policy. Whether Duterte signals a move back towards the center in his foreign policy in his third SONA speech is yet to be seen.
It will be ok if we submit our selves to china, provided that china will acccomodate every needs of filipino family,foods,education,housing,education,and health, and legalized shabu.forget about sovereignty,we dont have that. we are just a 3rd world country,let the chinese labor force come to philippines,a china province,sovereignty is on paper only. for duterte,a protest is an act war,tha wets why he is repeatedly saying that we cannot win a war against china,
Linda Vitaliano Sir i think the reason why aquino file this cse to the tribunal,beacause of chinas behavuoir, war in literal meaning we cannot win, ww all know that,but thereso many avenues that philippine can work out to peorest,well we won in the tribunal,at least an international body,recognized our plight,but chinas claim of this 9 dash line was declared void,and base less
Linda Vitaliano Sir i think the reason why aquino file this cse to the tribunal,beacause of chinas behavuoir, war in literal meaning we cannot win, ww all know that,but thereso many avenues that philippine can work out to peorest,well we won in the tribunal,at least an international body,recognized our plight,but chinas claim of this 9 dash line was declared void,and base less
Heydrian the writer is intelectually dishonest in most of his discourse. Case in point, he fails to mention that Duterte blindly enforced the law in deporting the Aussie nun arrested by Duterte’s Yellow liberal predecessors.
Further, the writer of this article miserably ommitted Duterte’s rumblings and threats against China based on overt verbal warnings by PLA on Philippine air patrols in West Ph Seas contested areas.
Ph and China have both reached the trust level never before seen. The sooner China realize that warm relations with Ph is in its best interests, the best for both parties.
Heydrian the writer is intelectually dishonest in most of his discourse. Case in point, he fails to mention that Duterte blindly enforced the law in deporting the Aussie nun arrested by Duterte’s Yellow liberal predecessors.
Further, the writer of this article miserably ommitted Duterte’s rumblings and threats against China based on overt verbal warnings by PLA on Philippine air patrols in West Ph Seas contested areas.
Ph and China have both reached the trust level never before seen. The sooner China realize that warm relations with Ph is in its best interests, the best for both parties.
Jay Reardon
Go get back to your man cave. Liar!
Jay Reardon
Go get back to your man cave. Liar!
You are so damn stupid to made such an assumption about China. Or, you must not know much about the history of the United States, or too blind to see it.
You are so damn stupid to made such an assumption about China. Or, you must not know much about the history of the United States, or too blind to see it.
Ron Manahan Right on, bro!
Ron Manahan Right on, bro!
This is response to Steven Foster: You wrote, "China don’t play nice." Then tell me, who play nice? America? A young country of 200 yrs of history already fought, waged or battled 30 or more countries. Where as China’s 5 thousand yrs of history has not warred with anyone or country. Now, who play nice, Mr. Foster?
This is response to Steven Foster: You wrote, "China don’t play nice." Then tell me, who play nice? America? A young country of 200 yrs of history already fought, waged or battled 30 or more countries. Where as China’s 5 thousand yrs of history has not warred with anyone or country. Now, who play nice, Mr. Foster?
ㅎㅓㅜ호ㄹㅇㅅㅅㄱㄷㅎ규ㅠㅍㅊ
ㅎㅓㅜ호ㄹㅇㅅㅅㄱㄷㅎ규ㅠㅍㅊ
But there are killings right?
But there are killings right?
No corruption you mean in the admin now, how about the 17B in the BoC?
No corruption you mean in the admin now, how about the 17B in the BoC?
Jay Reardon Hi Jay ,will you ask Trillanes why and what is his purpose to go to China 16 times that He can not answer Sen. Enrile.?Maybe if He will tell you, You can find the answer of your questions in him! And Please tell it to Filipinos who is more concerned about what was he making secret deals with China and what happened to our Claims over Scarborough Shoal and the the Rest of our EEZ !
Jay Reardon Hi Jay ,will you ask Trillanes why and what is his purpose to go to China 16 times that He can not answer Sen. Enrile.?Maybe if He will tell you, You can find the answer of your questions in him! And Please tell it to Filipinos who is more concerned about what was he making secret deals with China and what happened to our Claims over Scarborough Shoal and the the Rest of our EEZ !
There are more killings in Chicago than here. This is fake news from media ran by Western garbage . China never colonized the Philippines. The West did. Why resist China? Friendship is the name of the game. Haters only hate.
There are more killings in Chicago than here. This is fake news from media ran by Western garbage . China never colonized the Philippines. The West did. Why resist China? Friendship is the name of the game. Haters only hate.
What’s the problem of being a good neighbor? Have we not learn from our history that if our fully dependent of the western countries, there always pre conditions before even an aid or a loan are given. They want us to remain agricultural country so that our produce are exclusively supplied to them and let haciendero sand oligarch run our country. Marcos started the industrialisation but look what CIA did when we establish diplomatic relations with China and Russia. From Dovie Beam to Aquino assassination a silent hand is in control? Do we maintain the status quo? Do we remain as observers rather than the principal actor as we make our own destiny as a nation?
What’s the problem of being a good neighbor? Have we not learn from our history that if our fully dependent of the western countries, there always pre conditions before even an aid or a loan are given. They want us to remain agricultural country so that our produce are exclusively supplied to them and let haciendero sand oligarch run our country. Marcos started the industrialisation but look what CIA did when we establish diplomatic relations with China and Russia. From Dovie Beam to Aquino assassination a silent hand is in control? Do we maintain the status quo? Do we remain as observers rather than the principal actor as we make our own destiny as a nation?
That’s how big powers before played the game, nothing new
That’s how big powers before played the game, nothing new
Jay Reardon , still UNCLOS, the tribunal formed and paid for by the US to decide against China ?
Jay Reardon , still UNCLOS, the tribunal formed and paid for by the US to decide against China ?
Yes meek and humble for a few years.. Let us judge later what maybe the result of his strategy. Compare to 50 years close ally under that said great country now twelft in asia. He is love and supported by majority.. Just give him a try..
Yes meek and humble for a few years.. Let us judge later what maybe the result of his strategy. Compare to 50 years close ally under that said great country now twelft in asia. He is love and supported by majority.. Just give him a try..
Jay Reardon I strongly support your pronouncement
Jay Reardon I strongly support your pronouncement
Two things, it’s either the one who wrote this no nothing about the Philippines, or is simply funded by Duterte’s political foes.
Two things, it’s either the one who wrote this knows nothing about the Philippines or is funded by Duterte’s political foes and their puppeteers. Most probably, both.
Two things, it’s either the one who wrote this knows nothing about the Philippines or is funded by Duterte’s political foes and their puppeteers. Most probably, both.
Jay Reardon are a you a drug lord or a drug addict? Please review you r comments if you are in a right mind.
Jay Reardon are a you a drug lord or a drug addict? Please review you r comments if you are in a right mind.
Linda Vitaliano …..Pres. Aquino’s purpose of becoming president is mainly & clearly to acquire illegal wealth, not for the benefit of its country & people! DengVaxia, Senior Citizens’ Retirement funds, MRT/LRT Maintenance Contract, Brgy Health Stns, Road Right of Way, SAF 44, Yoland funds & numerous anomalies involving billions of peoples’ money are proofs that his administration did more harm than what was expected of him!
Linda Vitaliano …..Pres. Aquino’s purpose of becoming president is mainly & clearly to acquire illegal wealth, not for the benefit of its country & people! DengVaxia, Senior Citizens’ Retirement funds, MRT/LRT Maintenance Contract, Brgy Health Stns, Road Right of Way, SAF 44, Yoland funds & numerous anomalies involving billions of peoples’ money are proofs that his administration did more harm than what was expected of him!