Nobody expected a rapprochement between the United States and North Korea would be easy. And few likely expected China to take advantage of the diplomatic opening to further advance its geo-strategic interests in region.
But US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s recent setback in Pyongyang, where North Korean state media effectively referred to America’s top diplomat’s overtures as “gangsterism”, showed that’s the case on both fronts.
The US and North Korea, of course, are still technically at war and it was only a few months ago that US President Donald Trump branded North Korean leader Kim Jong-un a madman. Kim retorted by referring to Trump as “incurably mentally deranged.”
Such calumny and slight was set aside when Kim and Trump met for a historic summit in Singapore in June. But Pyongyang’s inimitable anti-US rhetoric was back on the vitriolic airwaves after Pompeo’s third visit to Pyongyang earlier this month.
On July 7, the official Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) lashed out against what it called Pompeo’s “unilateral and gangster-like demand for denuclearization” which it said ran “counter to the spirit of the Singapore summit meeting and talks.”
The statement came after Pompeo, who notably did not meet with Kim during his highly anticipated visit, had said the talks were “productive” and that significant progress had been made “in every element.”
The following day, US Republican Senator Lindsey Graham blamed China for the debacle, saying “I see China’s hand all over this. We’re in a fight with China.” Graham linked North Korea’s statement to the intensifying trade war between US and China.
Trump followed up with tweets critical of China’s role in the debacle, saying in a heated post: “We agreed to the denuclearization of North Korea. China, on the other hand, may be exerting negative pressure on a deal because of our posture on Chinese Trade – Hope Not!”
While both Trump and Graham are likely right that Beijing had a hand in North Korea’s recalcitrant statement on Pompeo, the turn is likely part of a wider strategy to supplant America’s geopolitical dominance in Asia rather than a reaction to the tiff on tariffs.
A breakdown in the still incipient US-North Korea talks could drive a diplomatic wedge between the US and South Korea, where hopes are high for a normalization of relations between the two long-separated Koreas.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in is known to want a formal peace treaty with the North, one that will pave the way for other agreements on trade and bilateral cooperation. After Pompeo’s visit, that prospect in the short-term again looks remote, and many South Korean policymakers are likely to blame the US for the reversal.
In May, Chang Dong Young, who served as unification minister in a previous government and is currently a lawmaker, openly blamed hardline US National Security Adviser John Bolton for problems in talks between the various players with interests on the Korean peninsula.
Such criticism has been muted since the Trump-Kim Singapore summit but could easily flare up again with North Korea’s apparent return to confrontational official rhetoric.
North Korea’s reaction to Pompeo’s visit also underlined the fundamentally different interpretations of the purpose of the talks. The US wants North Korea to comply with a “complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization” before lifting sanctions and normalizing bilateral relations.
The North, on the other hand, wants a formal declaration ending the 1950-53 Korean War, which ended in an armistice, not a peace treaty.
Such an accord, signed by the signatories of the 1953 armistice – with North Korea and China’s so-called “volunteer forces” on one side and US-led United Nations forces on the other – would give Pyongyang the recognition and prestige it desires and in its ideal scenario pave the way for the withdrawal of US forces from the Korean peninsula.
North Korea still sees weapons of mass destruction as its only life insurance. Leaders in Pyongyang are cognizant of the US-orchestrated violent overthrows of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and Muammar Gaddafi in Libya.
After Trump’s backtracking on his predecessor Barack Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran, there is little reason why Pyongyang would trust Washington’s promises of “security guarantees” in exchange for denuclearization.
Indeed, there are no signs yet that North Korea is moving in that direction. 38 North, a website dedicated to Korean Peninsula analysis run by the Washington-based Stimson Center think tank, reported on June 21 that commercial satellite imagery of North Korea’s missile engine-testing Sohae Satellite Launching Station near the Chinese border shows “no apparent activity related to dismantlement.”
The report appeared to contradict Trump’s post-Singapore summit tweets that, in apparent reference to Sohae, said North Korea is “destroying their engine site. They’re blowing it up.”
Other satellite imagery indicates that North Korea has finished work on a secondary cooling system for its five megawatt reactor at the nuclear research center situated at Yongbyon north of Pyongyang.
According to 38 North, “the North’s nuclear cadre can be expected to proceed with business as usual until specific orders are issued from Pyongyang.”
China’s leading role in the US-North Korean diplomatic dance became obvious when in March Kim made his first foreign trip since taking power after the death of his father Kim Jong-il in December 2011. Until then, many observers felt that the younger Kim had deliberately avoided visiting China.
In May, Kim made a second surprise trip to China ahead of his Singapore summit with Trump. Few missed the symbolism of Kim arriving and departed from Singapore aboard an Air China jet plane.
While Beijing says it’s committed to peace on the Korean peninsula, any deal will need to meet its terms. The Global Times, a daily tabloid under the auspicious of the Chinese Communist Party’s People’s Daily, said in a June 4 op-ed that China’s involvement in any deal to formally end the Korean conflict was essential, otherwise it would be invalid and could be overturned.
KCNA’s reference to Pompeo’s demands as “gangsterism” made clear that Pyongyang wants much more than just the suspension of joint US-South Korean military exercises, which Trump announced after the Singapore summit before substantive talks can advance, to start dismantling its nuclear deterrent.
KCNA referred to Trump’s suspension of the joint exercises as “highly reversible” and that the drills could be “resumed anytime at any moment” without “scraping even a rifle.” So why should North Korea unilaterally give up its arsenal of nuclear weapons in exchange for nothing more than vague US promises of security guarantees?
According to an April statement by South Korean leader Moon, North Korea had dropped its demand for the withdrawal of the 28,000 US troops now stationed in South Korea as a precondition for its denuclearization.
In light of recent events and rhetoric – and in the absence of any official statement directly from Pyongyang – that pledge can no longer be taken at face value. Indeed, the KCNA statement cryptically said that “it seems that the US misunderstood our goodwill and patience.”
China has also long desired for US troops to leave South Korea. The US, on the other hand, has maintained that the withdrawal of its troops is a non-starter, though North Korea and China will argue that the troops would need to leave as part of any final peace agreement.
If no such agreement materializes and Washington is blamed by Seoul for the failure, it could possibly lead to more interaction between China and South Korea in pursuit of alternative avenues out of the decades-long stand-off between the two Korean states.
That divide-and-rule agenda could explain why North Korea’s mouthpiece media undiplomatically referred to Pompeo’s overtures as “gangsterism”, while the American diplomat maintained after his Pyongyang visit that the denuclearization talks were still on track.
What is the reason for ‘Trump and Graham are likely right that Beijing had a hand North Korea’s recalcitrant state on Pompeo’? What is the reason for thinking that the [NK’s or China’s] turn is likely part of a wider strategy to supplant America’s geopolitical dominance in Asia? Doesn’t the US flex its economic muscles by imposing tariffs on everyone and sanctioning anyone it doesn’t like? Isn’t it clear from its military budget that the US hegemony is to be reckoned with for a long time?
How credible is the claim made by 38 North, an institution that has lost funding from the South Korean government? What is the source of the claimed commercial and other satellite imagery? Quite apart from the KCNA’s assertion, isn’t it obvious that the joint exercises can be reversed anytime? In fact, the US needs no such exercises. It had succeeded in bombing North Korea until it ran out of targets to bomb during the Korean War (read Bruce Cumings). It had no exercises back then, why does it need them now?
These dumb propagandaists have no shame:
The situation is US has been involved in god knows how many illegal wars since WWII and especially nasty for the past 20 years. US has NO credibility. Compared to that NK only started 1 war but that is by all standards a civil war out of a messy era. These propagandaists instead just harp on North Korea’s promise to denuclearize and take the freedom to interpret it as however they wish to try blame NK and even onto China instead. But clear heads knows the US certainly didn’t offer up enough to reach the level of credibility for NK feel safe enough to completely denuclerize right away – there will have to be a prolonged process where mechanisms are built, tested and operational before that can happen – ground work is not done.
Judging from the posts on this site by this Bertil Lintnr person It would not be outlandish to say he’s a sinophobe, and to the extent he disgustingly ignored the glaringly lacking of ground work and trust for North Korea to denuclearize at this stage (no excuse, he’s know to have covered Asia news through the whole NK nuclear ordeal) to write this article one has to suspect he’s a cia propagandist mole, as these speculations to try pin blame on NK and China while ignore lack of work from US side will only serve US interests to keep their foot in Asia at Asia’s expense. To that extent he’s serving one nasty purpose.
CVIW with US troops leaving Korea and its bases in the region including Japan demolished need to proceed before CWID!
The American must be over confident that they have had the North Koreans by the balls and did not take into consideration that China has the North Korea back. Easy meat? They now face a though Koreans who are nothing prepared to simply give the American a walk over. Hack just blame the Chinese. They have been warmed that the journey towards denuclearisation is long and though. They just were caught up in the initial euphoria.
The US doesn’t want peace, it wants to be seen crushing and humiliating anyone who dares to defy it. Unless the whole world forms an alliance to defeat American imperialism, we will soon be at war.
The basis for the article’s contention is speculation.????
Without the support of the Middle Kingdom there would be no North Korea——–the Chinese have pulled the strings from the JUMP——-no different NOW———this road is long and windy——— the Chinese leadership wants the Americans off the Peninsula——-so sit back, eat some popcorn with kimchi——-and enjoy the SHOW!!
this latest confrontation/meeting with pompeo on the eve of a summit with presdent putin in hesinki was a diplomatic blunder.the american diplomates are not!! diplomats. and consequently put at risk the meeting with putin.the russia are professional diplomats and will see any deal they make with the neocon u.s is worthless.china and russia do not want a united korea on great terms withe u.s. on their borders. russia already has this on their western borders.
The "fundamentally different interpretations of the purpose of the talks" is the the fault of the US. President Trump, in Singapore, agreed with Chairman Kim that "Reaffirming the April 27, 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, the DPRK commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula." The Panmunjom Declaration is a more thorough document in which North and South Korea agreed to set out denuclearization as an aspiration goal that will be worked on only after the normalization of economic and military relations and after a peace treaty has been agreed on or signed.
And also from the "reaffirmed" Declaration –"South and North Korea affirmed the principle of determining the destiny of the Korean nation on their own accord and agreed to bring forth the watershed moment for the improvement of inter-Korean relations by fully implementing all existing agreements and declarations adopted between the two sides thus far." There was no mention of US involvement in the process of ending the war and then denuclearization.
And we also have the situation of the West dealing with the East, where the West tends to go directly from start to finish whereas to the East speed is less of a factor then process. The Panmunjon Declaration thus ended with "In this context, president Moon Jae-in agreed to visit Pyongyang this Fall."
Qian Deng Yes our efforts in E Turkmenistan, Tibet, Vietnam and Tianamen Sq were only pacification.
During the recent meeting between the DPRK official and the US delegation in Pyongyang, the North Korean officials made a most sensible proposition, namely, that USA and DPRK formally declare the end of the war between them so that DPRK may denuclearize. The US delegation, headed by Pompeo, refused and, instead, made a most outrageous demand that DPRK must denuclearize immediately. But, how can DPRK give up its most powerful weapon, that is, its nuclear arsenal and its ICBMs, if it is still at war? Of course, the DPRK officials refused and declared that USA was adopting a gangster-like behaviour. I do not blame the DPRK in this matter and, like the DPRK, I think that the USA is acting like a gangster. And now, Trump and Graham have the guts to accuse China of derailing the talks between DPRK and USA. I guess that only the Americans, who are ignorant and more or less stupid, believe in the accusations of Trump and Graham. But the rest of the World know better.
Xinnie Bear, admitting the American is the big bad wolf in the world is dangerous to your health, NSA and CIA will soon pay you a visit in the middle of the night, and send to you to Guantanamo Bay to be interviewed by interrogation contractors.
Qian Deng
*** US involved in god knows how many illegal wars***
Well… I’m a staunch believer in the grand old saying that these chickens will one day come home to roost… Simple as that.
I thought popcorn was considered a choking hazzard in your nursing home. As for ‘windy’, becareful there is no ‘follow-through’, with all the cut backs it’s only 1 diaper per day.
Funny thing is the Japs, Ph and all your neighbors dont want them to go….. dont trust CCP or perfer larger US weapons ?
Comrade wumao, your controller needs to check your grammar and spelling
Has the CCP told you the Koreans like Chinese ? Oh, yes I suppose their soldiers really did in Nanking… you know when Mao ran away.
Russia has been pushed back and back, and all the liberated countries from the Cz, Poles, Ukrainians hate them.
So much for ‘diplomats’
Who are you calling ‘imperial’… China ? You seem to enjoy living in the USA, why not move to the glorious China and enjoy the social credit system and guanxi ?
China is only proving it does not want peace on the Korean penisular. A unfied Korea with previous expertise on making bombs would be a much begger threat to them. RFemember Nanking when Mao ran away from the Japs and Koreans
Stan, Stan the (half) man. China is surrounded by countries that hate and fear them. Didnt the CCP tell you this ?
China has geopolitical strategic interest to keep North Korea out of the control of the US. NATO has surrounded Russia; and China does not want this to happen to China. The average Chinese might be feed up to see the North Korean’s starving and suffering due to US sanctions and bullying. A US attack on North Korea could result in China becoming contaminated.
The US is looking for an excuse to freeze China’s $1 TRILLION in US bonds and Chinese support of North Korea will fit in perfect in that strategy. China should take urgent measures to get out of the financial claws of the American Eagle. The US is destroying countries where China has key economic interests; Syria, Iran, Venezuela, and Pakistan are just a few examples. Why fund the US war machine?
As I am teaching my blog readers the deductive inference of someone’s strategy based on the causal relations and Mr.Lintner seems to be a strategic consultant according to Wikipedia, I would like to point out four important factors which should not be overlooked on this issue.
1) China warned the US three times last year, April, July and November that China would take it as aggression to China if the US and Korean troops crossed the truce line or tried to topple the Kim regime. The last warning was an unpredecentedly strong one.
2)The last missile launch by North was November 28, if my memory is correct. Taking the necessary preparation period for athletes and cultural performance teams, the joint participation plan for Winter Olympic in February was supposed to start before the launch. And in the midst of international condemnation, it was not an easy decision for IOC to make only with Mr. Moon’s recommendation. (This is the key to understand the whole picture. Please find when the plan was made by whom because that information is now available somewhere.)
3) Time has changed from Iraq and Libya. Russia and China have exceeded the US military strength in strategic weapons such as hypersonic missile vehicle, which is a game changer. The US has to restrain because if they do something stupid it is going to be a war against China and Russia. Mr. Kim knows the shift of this power balance.
4) North Korea is in the core position for Russian Eurasia economic zone and Chinese Belt and Road which are the unforgivable competitor for Indo-Pacific initiative of US, Japan and Australia.
If you connect these dots, you could have predicted the outcome of Mr. Pompeo’s visit.
Ivor Large,
I, too, welcome a nuclear unified Korea. The only country that is scared of a nuclear unified Korea is USA, which is why dotard Trump and torturer Pompeo insist that North Korea denuclearizes.
USA is the only country that is demanding the denuclearization of North Korea because USA is the only country that is scared to death of a nuclear North Korea. The other countries, including China, Russia, etc. would prefer a non-nuclear North Korea, but they can live alongside a nuclear North Korea also.
Flora de la Sinensis Well the chinese will eat those chickens, after all they’ll eat anything….
Michael Chan Just remember what the Japs and Koreans did in Nanking, or ask your Granny. When Mao ran away.
Well said comrade, 0.5 RMB for you
Ivor Large 0.5 RMB? That’s it?
You pay me more, and I will teach you how to process multidimensional and multilayer information in parallel,
which is the only way to learn the truth.