President Trump is prepared to offer North Korea full diplomatic relations in return for full denuclearization, Jonathan Swan and Mike Allen reported at the website axios.com. The US president “is willing to consider establishing official relations with North Korea and even eventually putting an embassy in Pyongyang,” the news site quoted US government sources, in return for denuclearization.
The trade-off of North Korea’s nuclear weapons in return for international legitimacy for the Pyongyang regime is an approach that previous US Administrations considered and rejected. But it is the only diplomatic strategy that has a chance of working. Pyongyang might accept Complete, Verifiable and Irreversible Dismantlement, or CVID, of its nuclear weapons stockpile in return for one thing and one thing only, and that is survivability of its regime.
The North Korean regime cannot ask the United States and its allies to guarantee its longevity, but international legitimacy is the next best thing. It would give Pyongyang standing under international law and discourage future efforts to change the regime.
Regime survival is North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s dominant concern. He also wants to leave open the possibility of unification under his family dynasty. Diplomatic recognition would make this possible at least in theory.
Kim did not come to the negotiating table because of tough American talk about regime decapitation. The North Koreans have heard such threats for years and are not impressed. Nor will economic sanctions sway the Pyongyang regime. North Korea’s economy has improved markedly since Kim took power six years ago. As economist Steve Hanke wrote recently in Forbes magazine, Kim has allowed “spontaneous ‘dollarization’ and ‘privatization’” of his country’s currency and economic activity. As a result, Hanke argues, North Korea’s economy is “more resilient and in better health than the press and experts assert.”
The most important thing for the American side to grasp is that Kim Jong-un is not coming to Singapore out of weakness, “begging on its hands and knees” for the summit, as Trump adviser Rudy Giuliuni told the press last week. He is not in Singapore because he fears American attack, or because he wants an American bribe, or because the Chinese sent him there.
On the contrary: Kim believes that he now has something valuable to trade, namely, nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles that can strike American allies and perhaps America itself. He also presides over a stronger economy than his predecessors. Kim isn’t talking to Trump because his people are starving or because his economy is imploding. He wants to emulate Deng Xiaoping’s economic reform initiative of 1978.
Kim Jong-un can’t be bullied by threats of military attacks, and he can’t be bought by the offer to lift sanctions. He wants to be treated as an equal.
Kim wants what he and his predecessors have always wanted and will always want. That is full, internationally recognized sovereignty and security within its borders, certified by a peace treaty with the powers involved in the Korean War. That would require the establishment of diplomatic relations with the major countries not presently recognizing North Korea, notably the US, France, South Korea, and Japan, as well as security guarantees to its borders by the US and underwritten by China and Russia. Recognition of the North Korean regime by all the major powers would legitimize the Kim dynasty and keep alive the option of eventual unification of the Korean peninsula under its rule – although such an outcome is not certain, nor even likely.
President Trump’s instincts have been sounder than those of his advisers. National Security Adviser John Bolton nearly killed the negotiations by mentioning the “Libyan Option” (first give up your nuclear program and then get killed), but Trump publicly disavowed his remark. It is encouraging that Trump reportedly is willing to discuss diplomatic recognition and the opening of a US embassy in Pyongyang. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo averred April 12 that the US is not seeking regime change in North Korea, although regime change has been the foreign policy establishment’s Shibboleth for Pyongyang for decades.
If Trump comes to Singapore to bully and bribe Kim Jong-un, the summit will fail. If the US President instead is willing to trade legitimacy for a regime that has been a thorn in America’s side for the elimination of the nuclear threat, it has a chance to succeed.
This author is plumb full of shit using cheap brain insulting propaganda. What good is "international legitimacy"? Anyway, wen’t Libya and Iraq internationally recognized legitimate nations? How about Palestine before 1967? It means NOTHING.
Wait until NK denuclearization is agreed, not to mention completed, to congratulate Trump… you celebration is a little early.
Keviñ: Before you write these comments, what do you smoke- weed or opioid? Just guessing????!
The answer to that is a firm NO.
U.S. troops are in S.Korea at the DMZ. They are there at the invitation of the S.Korean government and they have no intention of invading the north.
Qian Deng
That’s nuts. N.Korea began its nuclear program when Kim’s grandfater was in power.
It was aided by the generosity of Bill Clinton.
Something that has been missed in this dialogue is the N.Korean nuclear scientists packing their bags and leaving Iran recently.
That was done at the insistence of Trump and Pompeo.
KIM GIVE UP HIS NUKES ??BETTER NOT OR HE WILL GET A ""GEOM""’KOREAN/ CHINESE ""JIAN"" UP HIS REAR."’
Then where is the peace treaty?
"Can Trump persuade Kim Jong-un to give up nuclear weapons?"
Equally (or more) important: Can Kim Jong-in persuade Trump to give up American nuclear weapons?
Sorry to burst your bubble but Kim has gotten his nukes under Trump’s watch and aint no giving it up for shitz promises spewing out of US’s rotten mouth.
The real leg work will be done by SK’s Moon, NK’s own willingness to go along, and China + Russia as ultimate REPUTABLE guaranteeor for stable security environment in their OWN neighborhood. US is just waiting to get their useless meedling ass kicked out after all its done, which should be good for US too, one less military base to fund and worry about.
Go back to Pyongyang.
Michael Chan So what? Your point is what? Trudeau, Macron and Merkel are all weak, traitorous globalist shills.
Trudeau——a Obama lacky and the three loser M’s May, Macron and the Communist shrill Merkel——–know one cares what these three cowards and zeros think!!———-RIGHT!!
Excellent article, Mr. Parpart.
Yes Tuesday’s summit may fail, because of the Military Industrial deep state, and Mr. Trump missing a few marbles.
But my bet is Kim will win in the end, and not too far in the future. If Trump is smart (he can be) he will make it a win-win, Kim gets (with Moon) a negociated re-unification free of foreign garrison, Trump gets a Nobel Prize.
If Trump has a senior moment within his term, Kim will get a one-sided win. There is just no winning move for USA.
"Can Trump persuade Kim Jong-un to give up nuclear weapons?" what a misleading headline, Kim said NK would give up nuclear weapons, but the denuclearization has to be in according to a negotiated agreement.
It seems the western media is already start laying the groundwork to blame Kim for everything that a failure of the meeting is due to the American’s unreasonable and ridiculous demands on Kim like the list put out by the American trade delegation in their first visit to China on May 3, 2018.
“give Pyongyang standing under international law and discourage future efforts to change the regime.” Aren’t Saddam Hussein, Iraq; Gaddafi, Libya all have standing under international law? But they are murdered and destroyed by the International law enforcer, The USA and it thug allies in Europe.
Great there is a summit, many believed this was not possible due to President Trump indecisiveness and war-hawk advisors like Mr. John Bolton. Everyone want a de-nuclearized Korea, so a deal is possible, if the US want it. Does anyone want war? Sadly, there is people in Washington that prefer permanent gridlock and tension. I guess it is good for business.
President Trump will benefit a lot of a peace deal, both domestically and internationally his approval rating will be boosted. President Trump have the mid-term US election coming up and pictures of Trump and the Rocketman smiling and shaking hands will be beneficial for the Republican candidates in the mid-term US elections.
A gradual lifting of sanctions is important for the de-nuclearization, recent changes in the North-Korean leadership indicates there might not be everyone who believe unconditional de-nuclearization is a bad idea. The US can sanction North Korea, but the rest of the world should not be bullied to do the same. North Korea has a lot of poverty, but the country has HUGE natural resources. All that is needed is foreign investments and access to markets.
South Korea must wake up and regain their sovereignty. The grave insult South Korea is not allowed by the US to participate in the talks, should not go un-noticed. The day after the meeting, President Moon will be informed on US decision on the destiny of South Korea. How arrogant is that?
Anyway, we should wish Chairman Kim and President Trump all the best!
I do not think that Trudeau, Macron and Merkel share the same opinion that you express.
Peace in the Korean Peninsula is possible only if one of the two conditions is met: a strong nuclear DPRK or if USA ends its invasion of Korea by removing all its soldiers and its military equipment out of Korea.
If USA does not put an end to its invasion of Korea by removing all its soldiers and its military equipment out of Korea and DPRK gives up its nukes, USA will attack and bomb DPRK, whatever assurances USA may offer.
Even when USA will have removed all its soldiers and its military equipment out of Korea, DPRK must wait for at least ten years before it starts giving up its nukes.
What is international legitimacy? It is USA and its vassals constantly demonising, provoking and sanctioning North Korea since 1953 and manipulating the UN.
Be sincere, honest and realistic and offer something concrete instead of smoke, mirrors and empty rhetoric.
Close all US bases in Korea and go home to live peacefully instead of supporting the warmongering, neocon profiteers instead of risking a nuclear war.
Finally after the last 16 years of America with two weak, stupid, Presidents, America has a President with "Vision,Smarts, Balls, and Good Instincts"——–the Presideny of a LEADER———Donald John Trump!!!