Foreign investors are pulling out of emerging Asian markets, even ones with good prospects for growth and debt financing, at a rate that has not been seen since the 2008 global financial crisis. They have withdrawn $19 billion from India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, South Korea and Taiwan since January, according to Bloomberg data.
Emerging markets performed well in the first quarter, displaying resilience to Federal Reserve tightening, but over the past two months, that picture has changed dramatically. With US money market funds now offering yields of around 2% – where 10-year Treasuries were last fall – and prospects for additional Fed hikes, the bar for getting into riskier assets is now higher.
Pointing to high growth rates and political stability, many analysts and investors are impressed by Asian economic fundamentals, but there is growing concern over shrinking global liquidity
“Its not a great set-up for emerging markets,” said James Sullivan, an executive at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “We’ve still only priced in about two thirds of the US rate increases we expect to see over the next 12 months. So the Fed is continuing to get more hawkish, but the market still hasn’t caught up.”
Pointing to high growth rates and political stability, many analysts and investors are impressed by Asian economic fundamentals, but there is growing concern over shrinking global liquidity.
The Bloomberg JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index fell to a 2018 low on Monday, extending two weeks of declines after the Fed and European Central Bank both moved toward policy normalization.