China’s incremental approach toward its goal of complete control over the South China Sea has so far avoided any serious repercussions. That should change unless the United States and its allies are willing to accept Chinese domination over the strategically and economically important waterway.
To be sure, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines against China’s Nine Dash Line claim in 2016. And, yes, the United States has made intermittent Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) sailing through the contested area, purposefully traversing within 12 nautical miles of Beijing’s artificially-created islets.
However, China is still there and has recently installed Anti-Ship Missiles (ASMs) and Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs) that serve an offensive role as much as their claimed defensive purpose.
Although a recent report notes that the SAMs have been removed or merely hidden, it also cites experts who believe that the change may be only temporary. Aside from diplomatic wagging of tongues and some American warships transiting the area, nothing has been done to reverse the militarized tide – certainly nothing effective.
The present situation came about because, although Beijing’s claim to roughly 90% of the South China Sea has been declared null and void by competent international authorities, there is no enforcement arm to ensure that China relinquishes its sweeping and legally fatuous claim.
Little by little, with each action in and of itself insufficient to provoke an armed clash, Beijing has over the years seized a number of islets, reefs, and shoals in the contested maritime area.
China has since built up those features with dredging so that permanent structures and more recently runways could be constructed. Now, there are fighters and nuclear-capable bombers landing on these islands where Beijing has also installed ASMs and SAMs.
China has step-by-step clearly established itself as the preeminent military force in the South China Sea, despite President Xi Jinping’s vow to former US President Barack Obama that China would not militarize the area.
The conventional thinking to date has been that seizing these specks of artificial land in a vast sea is not cause enough for conflict. That sort of thinking, however, tacitly accepts that, absent any serious effort to remove it, Beijing is there to stay in direct violation of an international court ruling, handed down in July 2016.
With forward military outposts now in place, China is able to intimidate other claimant nations into ceding natural resources in their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs).
This week, for example, Philippine media captured on video a Chinese Coast Guard ship taking part of a Filipino fisherman’s catch near the contested Scarborough Shoal. The rocky outcrip, which China forcibly seized after a months-long naval standoff in 2012, lies within Manila’s legally defined EEZ.
Gas exploration efforts by Vietnam and the Philippines have either been stopped outright or discouraged unless they partner with China, thus giving Beijing access to resources to which it has no valid claim under international law.
Diplomacy – even international opprobrium – has not worked to stall China’s ambitions. To date, FONOPs by the United States, soon to include those by Great Britain and France, have not had any appreciable effect other than for Beijing to increase its armaments on its claimed islets.
A lack of effective reaction in the name of avoiding conflict has merely facilitated China’s doing whatever it wants in the area.
Ramped up FONOPs will likely spark an even greater response from China. While the US and its allies may score diplomatic and political points through more such sailings, they also increase the odds for some sort of military confrontation with Beijing. Every additional allied sortie in the waters China claims – despite the verdict of the tribunal at The Hague – is another opportunity for conflict.
The West ought not pick a fight with Beijing, but it ought not back down from any confrontation with China either.
For example, should a Chinese fighter aircraft act in an aggressive manner, as one did in 2001 against an American reconnaissance aircraft operating over international waters, or if one should target an allied aircraft with its fire-control radar – an act universally considered as hostile – the immediate response ought to be to neutralize the threat by shooting it down.
The same armed response is required regarding the fire-control radars of Beijing’s ASMs or SAMs. If a Chinese weapons system activates its fire-control radar against any allied craft operating in international waters or flying in international airspace, the only proper military response is to destroy it.
Some would claim that it would be reckless to suggest that force be used to resolve such matters. However, now is not the time for appeasement, and Beijing has clearly established itself as an aggressor in the waterway. Moreover, the only thing that China likely understands and respects is a superior force.
China has shown it has no regard for the rules-based order that the modern world has developed, for to Beijing’s mind it does not suit its purpose. Like a child that has yet to learn basic social graces, Beijing will continue its military moves to control the South China Sea until the US and its allies stop it.
Don’t you know that the US do not need international law? The US think it is International Law.
Zac Haga, there is a big difference, Chinese fought against the Japanese despite the overwhelming odds against them, they fought for 13 years, but the Europeans did not fight against the Nazi in spite they have similar technological levels. Besides the American was the one supplying the war materials and technologies to the Japanese before the Pearl Harbor attack. The American made huge amount of money out of it.
Zac Haga, without the American supplying the Japanese war materials and technologies, Chinese would bankrupted the Japanese, and defeated the Japanese a lot sooner.
I do agree with Mc Coy as he used the imge of a growing child to talk about China, for it has behaved inappropriately in relation to its smaller neighbours. China has to learn basic social skills or to be taught to grow up. Henry Duc, Sydney
1) China is intruding into the 12 nautical miles limit of other countries in South China sea
2) China is harping on the court arbitration , before harping on the court jurisdiction, will china allow intrude into it’s 12 nautical miles
limit other country’s ships?
3)It is plain resource grab. Will china allow artificial island building near it’s 12 nautical boundary and allow other countries claim inside 12 nautical mile limit?
4) First China occupied islands , and now it is blaming US for provocation. It is like devil quoting scriptures.
If China hell bent on occupying the south china sea, then India, Japan, US,NATO and other littoral countries devise guerrilla type naval warfare to harass China or think about other effective strategies
Yemen , Syria are different issues. It is not jungle raj.
We are discussing about south china sea illegal occupation of islands by China. If you have knowledge about south china sea then comment. If you talk about syria, yemen then talk about illegal annexation of tibet if you have knowledge? Or talk about illegal occupation Aksai Chin by China?
Calm down everyone, Trump can’t even get firm on Syria and NK, or even ZTE. And Iran? Already yesterday news. And don’t forget Russia too. And Mexico too, and Canada too!
I will start worrying when Fox and Friends start making war plans on SCS. LOL
Chitturi Chowdary also talk about annexation of sikkim illegal occupation from Kashmir to north east and also the Nepalese territories siezed by british during Anglo Gurkha war
"neer peer power"? lol. Chinese have their heads shoves up their own ass
The Chinese military build up in the area is due to fear of American Imperialistic over-reach, meddling, and aggressive behavior against Vietnam, North Korea and the bombing of Cambodia. The U.S. and its allies need tio be put in their place. America is the nation that does not abide by international law McCoy
Qian Deng Was also thinking if you change "China" for "USA" and "south china sea" for world, and maybe a few minor changes here and there, this could have been a decent article.
Seeing the comments from paid troll, I am sure Asian wars are near fought between two camps. Situation is like 1934 of Europe.
It’s UNCLOS, with a "C". Stands for United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Not UNLOS, moron.
Theres no more talk and talk to that matter..china wants to be a superpower on its own way..nobody… and no countries can stop that.
The UN Security Council must take cognizant of the security problem emerging in SCS and WPS which if not attended to beforehand, will revolve to a full blown war. The best solution foreseen is to demilitarize and for the UN to take over the administration of all existing developments in the area to forestall peace among Nations which uses the Sea.
idiots! Paid propagandists by the communist party! Robots!
Yes and if China will not bow to the Philippines you will be the next Iraq!
China is a red gowned Wolf!It is the axil of Devils Axis nations !It Should be broken unless worldis at Peril !!!
Issue is not the status of the court. If a country follows international laws the issue of court doesn’t arise.
China is always an aggressor.
They have captured Tibet by force. They wish to capture entire south China sea and it’s resources.
They could be compelled to bow down if you apply very strong united military force or hit them economically.
Their ultimate aim is to have larger share on the resources of South China Sea. If they are compelled to pull back then they will come to the negotiation table for sharing it with other countries.
China will not back down in the SCS. It is only wishful thinking by the author. The CPC cannot afford to lose face among the Chinese and put its legitimacy in jeopardy. It is only through a bloody and devastating war with a clear win or defeat similar to what happened to the US and Japan in WW2 that they can be dislodged.
This article in nothing but the falsehoods and rubbish. So happy fewer and fewer people are now being fooled by hogwash like this.
And China is sounding like the Japanese prior to WW2. Japan had the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere, China now has the One Belt One Road Initiative. Look at the nine-dash line and how it far those areas are from China vis-a-vis the other claimant countries. As to the historical aspect, there is a 1734 map showing that those areas are part of Philippine territory. Where are the Chinese maps?
What are you whining about the West Philippine Sea is Free all that Xi and China Has to do is Make the Philippines a province of China and the President Duterte will not lift an inch to defend the whole archipelago because Duterte is willing and able to be a Chinese Citizen.
Rightly said. Pussyfooting on relentless incremental territorial transgressions by China won’t work. As our Army Chief Bipin Rawat said ‘Salami Slicing ‘ strategy is adopted by China to nibble at neighbours territory and India has experienced it all along, losing Assai Chin and now having these imperialists bulldoze through their BRI in POK. We had stared them in the eye during Doklam crisis and ensured the Dragon didn’t step forward. That’s the way to tackle these Worst Imperialists who hide behind Cmmunist ideological cloak. But such standing of ground isn’t easy and can’t be done by smaller nationa. EUROPE is only scared of Russian threat , thus only NATO has survived. The dismantled SEATO if revived would be effective against the wily Dragon. But US has to take strong measures and inspire confidence among SCS community as well as India. Then CHINA can’t be contained purely by MILITARY STRATEGY. Ascent of its economic power needs to be checked. US had checked Japanese exports in 1980s , which had partly slowed down Japanese economy. If same is done to China , there will be not only economic slow down but also cataclysmic Social unrest. But the question is does the US possess economic means and political will to assume leadership and that too immediately ?
Frederick C. Dela Cruz don’t be stupid! If the allied/US cannot deter the China’s claim, do you think China will bow down to Ph with no notable Navy..
International court! Are you joking! China has the right to protect its land n sea , if America doesn’t like a country do they have the right to military invent the country and change the people elected government and kill anyone who they don’t like, why did America went to Haiti! The US colition or do any country has the right to send its military to another counties backyard! China has there rights to defend in every mean, if America and Europe send its military and put missals and bombs and kill the citizens of otheee nation it’s for terror or human rights but if another country do such a thing it’s something they have to be punished n ban .. etc , how long can America do these and also protect Israel , Israel is the only nation that act against UN and how can America talk anymore in the name of international rules !! China n Rassia needs to do more n save small nation from America n Europe dictatorial democracy!
You are correct 100%
The writer does not know what he is talking about. The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague DID NOT rule in favor of the Philippines . The PCA is not a court and it only provided a registry and secretarial services for the ad hoc arbitral tribunal which made the ruling on July 12, 2016.
But President, an ex prosecutor knew that the arbitration was null and void and he set the ruling aside and agreed to negotiate with China peacefully.
The nine-dash line is not a maritime boundary as it has no coordinates. It is only a temporary line to show that China has sovereignty over the Paracel and Spratly Islands, etc. China has not claimed 90% of the South China Sea as it has ratified UNCLOS. The US has not yet ratified UNCLOS and is therefore not following a rules-based system it wants others to follow.
After WW2, Japan returned the Paracel and Spratly Islands to China in accordance with the Potsdam (1945) and Cairo (19430 Declarations signed by the US, UK, China and Russia.
There were no disputes until Vietnam grabbed 29 features in the Spratlys when oil was found by ECAFE in lated 1960s. Malaysia grabbed 7, Brunei one and President Marcos grabbed 8 features in 1978 using a presiential decree 1596, which was illegal.
The westerners have forgotten the cruelty of World War 2 , so let another war come to remind them the Eastern Dragon has awakened & any intruders will be treated properly.
It is very clear that USA is the intruder in SEAsia. The international agencies are so corrupt as to be US mouthpieces. The nations of the SEAsia in. India shd unite and drive USA out.
Your organisation is just another propaganda tool of the west,no intelligent people would swallow the crap you are putting out there..Perhaps your people in the west would..And do you think the US and their allies can defeat China and Russia..start getting real.
We have enough of these Western bullshits masquerading as the wishes of the "International Communities".
Heard enough of these Western war criminals like Tony Blair, Sarkozy, George Budh, Obama etc spewing these nonsense day in and day out as if the world’s people are so stupid!
We shall stick our middle fingers to them!
Chinese are fantasising to avenge our humiliations since the Opium War to decimate these descendants of the pirates who came to burn, rape and loot our Imperial Palace in the past century.
Vince Cheok, you are very informative sir, thank you!
What did Aquino Government do when this started, Did they ask USA assistance in this matter? What did the USA DO?
That is what Trump is doing increasing up to $500 billion in sanctions. Unfortunately that policy is self-defeating when violating the JCPOA which all other nations remain in, effectively is giving the oil resources of Iran to China which badly needs oil and is part of the reason for increasing militarization of the South China Sea.
Do not buy made in china this supports its aggression
This is a very tragic mistake China is making and falls into. For it to believe that by bullying other nations thru its military might it can have all that it wants even it means grabbing it from the rightful owners. Time comes when the enemies China creates will unite into one single formidable force and blast the whole of China into smithereens. And I think this is inevitably coming.