The outcome of the current fighting season in Afghanistan, which started early in the spring and will end before the first snows cover the mountain passes, is decisive for the Trump administration because the premise of the new US strategy in Afghanistan centers on pressuring the Taliban and compelling them to the negotiation table. However, the Taliban have adopted a counter-strategy to resist the US mini-surge and prove that they will not relinquish their military pressure and will thus force the US to negotiate on their terms.
President Donald Trump has given the US military the necessary authority and support to break the current stalemate in favor of the Afghan security forces by relying extensively on air power and special-forces operations. The US military operations started last autumn, and even greater military campaign is expected against the Taliban’s field commanders and special units during the next several months.
While the US firepower in Afghanistan could seriously damage the insurgents’ fighting capacity and relieve pressure on the Afghan National Army, it will not be enough to defeat them, because they have gained resiliency and learned how to avoid direct confrontation with a superior force.
In addition, the main objective of counterinsurgency is to gain popular support, and therefore the fate of the war will not be decided on the battlefields but in winning hearts and minds of local populations. This is where the US has been struggling despite spending billions of dollars on humanitarian, stabilization and development projects.
In fact the new US strategy adequately addresses major challenges and obstacles to victory in Afghanistan such as insurgents’ safe havens in Pakistan and low capability of the Afghan security forces due to nepotism and endemic corruption, but it fails to stress the responsibilities of the Afghan government.
A real game changer in this seemingly endless conflict would be an inclusive, effective and accountable government capable of addressing people’s legitimate grievances
A real game changer in this seemingly endless conflict would be an inclusive, effective and accountable government capable of addressing people’s legitimate grievances. The US military could push the Taliban out of any area but it relies on the Afghan government to provide governance and deliver basic services to the local population.
According to the latest report by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), the Afghan government controls 56% of 398 districts, the insurgents 14%, while 29% of districts remain contested and outside the direct control of either side.
Before Trump’s decision to send additional US troops to Afghanistan, the Taliban concentrated their military assaults on a number of major cities such as Kunduz in the north and Lashkar Gah in the south. They were able to capture Kunduz twice in 2015 and 2016 and encircle Lashkar Gha in Helmand province for an extended period from 2014 to 2017 until US and British special forces intervened and prevented its collapse.
However, since the start of the US military surge last autumn, the Taliban have developed their counter-strategy, and instead of facing heavy US firepower in the battle for control of major population centers, they have opted to strike the weak and demoralized Afghan forces in remote and rural districts where a military assault is least expected. Therefore, they have been able to make significant strides in central and northern Afghanistan where the US military has few or no military assets to block their advances.
Meanwhile, the Afghan political elite has been engaged in infighting for greater control of political power and have become oblivious to the danger of losing control of the population in the contested areas in favor of the Taliban.
In addition, a lack of effective governance, political decadence among the elite in Kabul, and an increased level of poverty have become major sources of public frustration, which has helped the Taliban sell their narrative to an increasingly disfranchised population, particularly in the rural areas. Also, people’s distrust of the current political process, which has been disguised as democracy but functioned as a kleptocracy, is a serious challenge for survival of the regime in Kabul.
In fact the benchmark for the Taliban victory is to resist the growing US firepower, expand their control of territory in rural areas, and preserve their assets. They know well that the US commitment is not open-ended, and soon Afghanistan will become a hot political debate in Washington before the next US presidential election. Also, risk of a serious political crisis in Kabul, in the context of the upcoming elections and growing ethnic polarization, is higher than ever before.
Therefore, the Taliban’s counter-strategy is to ride out the current US military surge, wait, and prepare for political meltdown in Kabul.
The foolish statements by US forces in Afghanistan that they will create pressure on Taliban by hitting them hard where it hurts to bring it on the negotiating table is the only reason why Taliban have announced the fighting season.
I really can’t understand why China needs India’s help in Afghanistan, and why would India stop anti China policies by investing jointly in Afghanistan. I think there’s more to this story than what they said after their meeting. Soon big boss will find it out by twisting Modi’s ears.
Rohit Pandeya hahahaha,now hindu mullah mody will served to America ,once banned to enter in Amrica..wish u good luck
Maybe some people didn’t hear about some Indian agents arrested by Pakistani SF because of their activities and active collaboration with taliban
As the taliban mulla Omer once said " they have the watches, we have the time" America will leave sooner rather then later. they have lost this war, they just have to acknowledge it and leave.
This piece of writting is mis placed on time. This might have been intdrrsting to read 10 years ago. What new it has added to our information. Includes a.bizzare statement of safe heavens in Pakistan. Do they need pakistan where they hav over 40 percent of Afghanistan to roam around. And they xan celebrate eid in open with useless afghan security personel
Very true. Why do they need to have safe heavens in Pakistan when they can have these in Afghanistan. On the other hand TTP is having their safe heaven in Afghanistan. Hina Rabbani Khar in an interview on CNN pointed out that there are serious doubts that USA want to end chaous from this area.
Your analysis is amazing. I suppose, Taliban were engaged in charitable works earlier.
If they leave, the Americans lose nothing except a heavy financial burden. The Afghans would have lost any chance of becoming a modern democratic country for next two or three generations.
Just because you close your eyes, the rest of the world doesn’t become blind. You fooled most of the world for sometime but now you guys are only fooling yourselves. And as long as you live in denial, you will not be able to address the problem. When you breed snakes to bite your neighbours, you are bound to get bitten yourself.
If the U.S. did not support the Talibans back in the 80s against Russia then these fundamentalists would have been wiped out and Afghanistan would have been a country where education is favored and women are empowered. What the U.S. did back in the 80s pushed back progressive social and cultural programs under a secular government. But no. The U.S. was so obsessed in eradicating Socialist advances that it created a monster in fundamentalist terror.
This war will not end. The Afghan people are tired of war but their politicians love to keep the war going. Why? They can enrich themselves easily. Special Forces instead of hunting down the Taliban commanders they should hunt the corrupt, useless politicians and expose them or let them die of accidents or put a contract in their head.
This war is a repetition of the Vietnam War. Corrupt Vietnamese self serving politicians were not serving the people. In a way they were helping the VietCongs win the war by alienating the Vietnamese from the Saigon Government inability to serve them.
AND that’s what happened. It didn’t take long after the last American left Saigon it became Ho CHI MIN City in honor of the man who unified Vietnam
Right they should focus more on Grievances. The grass roots of the problem and by addressing this. people that are supporting and joining the taliban will see the the diff. And join in to the Central Govt’s effort/s.