Immediately after his official inauguration on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to announce a new government. And a bombshell is in the making. The new cabinet is bound to be a Stavka: that is, a war cabinet.
In the context of the interminable Russiagate saga, increasingly harsh US sanctions, the Skripal charade (which, incidentally, has totally disappeared from the Western news cycle), and the serious escalation in Syria – in contrast to the Russia-Iran-Turkey attempt at a peace process in Astana – that’s an all but inevitable option chosen by the Kremlin.
As early as four years ago former military officer Yevgeny Krutikov, a columnist for Vzglyad, exposed what constituted Russian red lines for the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization: Ukraine, Georgia, Finland, Sweden, “unfriendly actions of Lithuania and Poland” against the Kaliningrad enclave and navigation in the Baltic, and last but not least, the Arctic, “almost the ideal of all available bases for launching a first strike, both by nuclear weapons and high-precision, strategic non-nuclear arms.”
Yet the new, absolute red line is Syria – as recently delineated by the Russian Defense Ministry: Any attack on Russian assets or personnel will be met with a devastating response.
The new, absolute red line is Syria – as recently delineated by the Russian Defense Ministry: Any attack on Russian assets or personnel will be met with a devastating response
Even more crucially, Russia’s state-of-the-art missile technology, as announced by Putin in his landmark March 1 address, poses serious questions for the US naval empire.
Moscow’s military spending decreased by 20% in 2017 to US$66.3 billion, according to a report released this week by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). This happened to constitute the first annual decline in almost 20 years.
Compare it with the combined 29-nation NATO military spending in 2017: $201 billion.
Not to mention US military spending, relatively stable, for the second year in a row, at a whopping $610 billion. But SIPRI says this is bound to go up, linked to “modernization of conventional and nuclear weapons.”
Yet the heart of the matter from now on is not the enormous discrepancy between the Russian and NATO/American military budgets; it’s the fact that Moscow can churn out serial hypersonic missiles – fast and cheap – compared with the Pentagon’s capacity to build multibillion-dollar aircraft carriers.
Eurasianists vs Atlanticists
Russian analysts have confirmed to Asia Times that a Stavka is in the making – translated as a tight, cohesive collective bent on devising pragmatic solutions in a war-economy setting, on all fronts. That implies extremely close coordination among the Kremlin, the Defense Ministry, the General Staff, all the agencies in the security apparatus and the Russian military-industrial complex.
Sergey Sobyanin, currently the mayor of Moscow, stands a pretty good chance of being the next prime minister. The ideal candidate for the military-industrial complex would have been Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, or even current Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin. But it’s practically sure that Putin, for complex internal-competition reasons, will choose Sobyanin.
US sanctions are a decisive factor. Rogozin was hit by sanctions in 2014. Both Shoigu and Sobyanin are sanctions-free – for now. In consequence, current Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev’s fortunes are waning.
It’s no secret that at the highest circles of power in Russia an epic battle has been raging for more than a decade between the Eurasian sovereignists – backing Putin – and the Atlantic integrationists – backing Medvedev. The Eurasian drive is toward a multipolar world and Eurasian integration (New Silk Roads, Eurasian Economic Union). The Atlanticist drive is for Russia to be accepted by the West as an equal partner – now a virtually impossible prospect.
For all practical purposes the Russian economy is run by the Washington Consensus. From the perspective of Eurasian sovereignists, this is the biggest threat to a stable, nationalist system with an extremely popular Putin on top
Atlanticists totally control Russian banking and finance, including the central bank. For all practical purposes, the Russian economy is run by the Washington Consensus. From the perspective of Eurasian sovereignists, this is the biggest threat to a stable, nationalist system with an extremely popular Putin on top.
Putin, in public, constantly supports the Central Bank of Russia and the Medvedev-related economic team. This should not be taken at face value. Analysts tell Asia Times of a recent barrage of serious criticism against them on all main Russian TV channels.
So the definitive test, after the announcement of the Stavka, is whether there will be a sort of political crackdown on the Central Bank of Russia and Medvedev allies. It’s not far-fetched to say expectations are running as high as for the World Cup in June.
Take it to the (Crimea) bridge
In parallel to Moscow tightening its geopolitical game, the drive for Eurasian integration could not but remain top of the bill, as illustrated by the latest Valdai Club discussion in late April in Shanghai, centered on how Russia and China should coordinate their strategies toward building a “Greater Eurasia.”
That includes, of course, bypassing the US dollar in bilateral trading; strengthening the Shanghai Cooperation Organization; and solidifying the symbiosis of China as a consumer and Russia as a producer of goods.
Analysts Sergey Karaganov and Yu Bin, for instance, agree on what Karaganov defined as “the West’s unilateral war against China and Russia.” A consensus is emerging that the crunch time for shaping a multipolar new world order is during the next 10 to 15 years.
Virtually at the same time, and also totally under the radar of Western corporate media, representatives of no fewer than 71 nations met in Crimea at the fourth annual Yalta International Economic Forum.
This is one of Russia’s top business meetings, along with the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, the Sochi Investment Forum and the Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum, to be held in late May.
Back in February 1945, Winston Churchill, Franklin Roosevelt and Josef Stalin met in Yalta to design the post-World War II world – which ended up being framed by the Cold War. Now, in a Cold War 2.0 environment, Russia is repositioning Crimea as a debate hub on global cooperation – complete with a brand-new, billion-dollar international airport and the Crimean Bridge, spanning 19 kilometers across the Kerch Strait, and open for traffic in late May, six months ahead of schedule.
That’s what “Russian aggression” feels like.
Russia has been in a cold war with the west for more than a decade. Russia must prepare for a hot war. Israel is using all the dirty tricks to drag US/NATO into a war against Iran.
The latest Israeli attack on Syria was done with Israeli F-15 Eagles, with fake transponder signals. Israel did not use their normal flight path flying in from the South, but went North over Jordan, Iraq, and did their war crimes. Israel’s air-forced F-15E fighters was pretending to be American.
The Russians and Syrians is reluctant to fire on US air crafts, because it could result in SEVERE retaliations, maybe WW3.
Fake transponder signals can drag US/NATO into a new war! It is only a matter of time before a US fighter get accidently shot down, by the Syrian air defenses.
More please.☺
I believed Russia is in very bad situation. US UK EU against RUSSIA because they norice is getting improve in all aspect and become powerful country again and they cann’t accept it. CRIMEA is a pretext chemical nerve and SYRIA another pretext to implement sanction. VERY UNFAIR SYSTEM. Inspite these unfair biased treatment toward RUSSIA. Russia can manage it. Russia have been patient so many yers now i believed they will succed in the end…Long life RUSSIA KEEP GOIN AND BE PATIENT. US UK FR EU ORGANISER OF" WHITE HELMET" Isis branch funded by them are already exposed of staging the so called chemical attack.WHAT A SHAME…
Putin’s Russia is the enemy of The United States of America!
1945 vs 2020 in the Middle East. Then, the Sunnis were in charge, today, the Shia are.
For 1,300 years the Sunnis allied themselves with the Tribe of Judah in a fun cartel Kaliphate of gore, glory, conquest, and colonialism against the Christian and the Shia. The trade monopolist cartel milked East-West trade with Tariffs (Arabic word) till Christians expelled both Sunnis and Jews from Spain and found new routes to Asia (and new lands too).
Western Corporate Capitalism that followed made alliance with Sunnis – Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and also anti-Shia Shah of Iran, to defeat godless Russia. They did, but then Russia returned to its Christian roots, restoring its historic alliance with the Shia, the free traders.
Add China and its BRI to integrate Europe, Asia, and Africa into one contiguous land based trading union with fast transport. Far distant America’s and its control of slow shipping lanes is irrelevant here. Plus the Christians and the Shia sit on 90% of ME oil and 100% of its water. To prevent and encore, Christian Russia and Shia Iran are busy clearing the Silk Road routes of Sunnis, with China’s blessing.
The writing is on the wall for the Sunnis and their Capitalist Western allies.
And the rest of the world.
Russia has made the same mistake as the US time after time – getting bogged down in the Middle East faction wars. It accomplishes nothing and is nothing but a drain on manpower and money.
Wishfull thinking. It is your country that is — very unfortunately — likely to pay a high price for your faith in the Western club. To this club, you do not belong, nor ever did. It is amazing how easy it is to make people believe that West is actually sincere, and means best. As a result, your country is on the frontline of any conflict. Placing missile shields on your territory was a foolish decision, based on misguided trust. West has forever exploited Romania, using the fake history of Roman ic language, to tie the country to its goals. In fact, the language is the key to understanding the origins of Indoeuropean, as it in conjuction with other languages of southeast Balkans provides the needed links in it origin and dispersion. So, for the sake of beign "Western", the country has deprived itself of study of its antiquity. The Roman influence naturally came with the region being the easternmost border of Roman empire, with a heavy population influx of poor and destitute of the city of Rome, that Romans exported to Romanian shores. This silly abuse of history, as the expense of Romania, serves its purpose. The purpose being isolating Romania from its "slavic" neighbors, as if 3/5 of Romanian language is not identical to the indoeurpean roots of Bulgaria, Serbia or Macedonia.
Just one more example of Western abilities to divide, conquer, flatter, and abuse. Nothing new. I hope the realities of the poverty in Romania brings people to their senses. What exactly has Romania received from the association with EU and NATO. Poor economic advice, destruction of it own capabilities, and mass emigration. And to top it all off, Europe has invited with open arms all the migrants from Middle East and Africa, neglecting entirely the plight of the entire Easten Europe, plight that saught solution in mass emigration to the West. Now, those migrants will compete with the newcomers. So much for European solidarity! There are already million Poles living in UK, and about 25% of population of Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia has left their countries. The numbers of others are equally disturbing. Yet, the trust continues, until complete destruction. Perhaps this is inevitable. Sometimes natives just cannot cope, and new people will come to inhabit the lands of foolish and easily bamboozeled. .
There are some misconceptions — or just misstatements — in the article. In Russia, for the longest time now, there are no true Atlanticists. The only ones are the foreign funded NGOs or individuals. Kasparov comes to mind. As for Medvedev, or Nabulina’s Central Bank, this is an entirely different issue.
With Medvedev presidency, Russia did its utmost to find the common language with the West. His government, and his own personal predisposition for conciliatory approach, for finding ways to cooperate, in both business and military spheres. Yet, it was rebuffed. Apart from some rather symbolic and highly visible joint projects, such as science hub, nothing — apsolutely nothing — has changed. This was not due to Medvedev or Nabulina’s blind faith in West, but rather a concerted effort to find common language. To leave no stones unturned. But it became clear that Medvedev’s presidency was to be shunned and excused found to continue demonization of Russia. Prime example was 8.8.2008, the day Beijing Olympics opened, and Georgia attacked South Ossetia. Russia reacted wisely, not reveling any more of its military capacity then necessary for the task. This example is the key to understanding many other issues in Russia-West relationships.
One, West believed that South Ossetia was to be a good, tiny message to Russia, that we do not see you as friends and partners. A clear message to hopefull era of Medvedev. Second, Russia also demonstrated that it has not lowered its guard. Thus, West made a point of not accepting Russia to the club, but at the same time suffered a defeat in not being able to help Georgia keep its provinces.
The other issue, is the relationship with China. Russia and China have long time ago announced their plan to avoid duplication, be that in commercial, or military capacity building. Only, as is always the case in the West, none of it has been taken seriously. They work on the basis of comparative advantages, that is, Russia will not attempt to waste money and develop production of consumer goods. China is unmatched here. But Russia is a powerhouse in grain production, not just any grain, but GMO free grain. With it, it will grow livestock production, as the healty grain feed capacities grow over time. Russia and China collaborate in military, but this is clearly covered by a thick veil of secrecy.
Thus, what sounds crazy to me is this naive belief that Russia annonced on March 1, its advances in the new classes of weapons, just for the sake of announcement. And it is even crazier to assume that many of them are not already in production, or being deployed, not just the "Dagger" the Mach 10 supersonic cruise missile.
The most dangerous of all weapons are not necessarity the long distance nuclear powered cruise missile that can cruise around globe indefinitely, but are drone submarines. Most of the danger to Rqussia and China comes from the forward placed US assets, such as submarines and missile "defence" platforms. The reason? All current cruise missiles are short range, thus requiring closer location. Among them, the most dangerous are submarines, as they can come close to shores, and are not easy targets. Cruise missiles are the key to agressive US posture, as they are the hardest to block by defence systems. So US focus was on planning first strike on Russian nuclear assets, insuring that any retaliation will be a weak one, and mosty directed against defensive shields, in countries of no consequence to US or its Western allies. Intercontinental may not even be necessary, if Russian capacities can be so degraded making it impossible to go furher, and hope to prevail. What Russia is doing by its submarine drone, a nuclear powered vehicle that is faster then any underwater or surface military ship — is insuring that it can eliminate all submarines and all naval vehicles from which nuclear cruise missiles could be launched. The identical need exists for China, to keep all naval assets with short range cruise missiles far away from its shores. So, the key is to disable first strike by targeting naval assets. Later, if necessary, use hypersonic platforms, specially those with unlimited range alredy possitioned in the air. The advantage of drone submarines is that it can hide in extreme depths, something regular submarines cannot. Being nuclear powered, they can stay positioned for unlimited time, unseeen and unheard. It is crazy to think that Chinese factories are not already mass producing these vehicles, as their components fit regular cargo container sizes. It is very hard for me to imagine that Russia and China are sitting on their duffs, not being fully aware of the menacing nature of Western threat. Neither one of them envisions fighting on their soil any more. Oceans may already be crawling with these silent weapons, especially as they are capable to attack coastal assets as well.
Also, there will be no "purges". There will be changes, yes. But Russia shuns political theater, and deals with all changes in difnified manner, saving faces and careers. Because changes are sometimes necessary. What was objective in Medvedev era, has changed now.
Also, makes no sense to place either Rogozin or Shoigu in the prime minister’s seat. Rogozin has been the architect of changes to the military technology, and has been for the longest time outspoken — since his days as Russia’a NATO rep. Shoigu has served as Minister of Emergencies for a long time before taking on being the boss of Armed Forces. His achievements are remarkable, and to give him an administrative position, makes no sense. Sobyanin is an excellent choice, as he is a capable administrator, and that is what Prime Minister is. Russia, contrary to the liberal democratic advocates point of view, is not autocratic. It is run as an enterprise, in the interest of the entiere nation, not only its special interests, what is typical in all Western libeal democracies. They are liberal with our money, our children, our future, for as long as it makes some rich people happier and richer. More and more, Russia is running as a corporation, with different managers having different duties, but while Prime Minister is on one hand tied to Legislature, the way corporation is ties to its shareholder, he is on the other hand an executive of operations. The President is in a true sense a Chief Executive Officer. His key managers report to him, as does the Prime Ministrer that heads all administration, that is day to day operations of the government.
That does not free up Chief Executive Officer from having to know details. Otherwise, it can easily happen that different parts of the enterprise start pulling in different directions, not being aware of the need to maximize the benefit to the nation as a whole.
Chinese system is really in many ways same, with many notable exceptions. Politicians in Russia can still come to Parliament on the strenght of money, not their personal merit. And Chinese system provides for the smooth change at the top, as the competent rise up to the more responsible positions in the governance. Russia still can be undermined from the outside, as West continuously works on the modal of divide, and conquer, flatter and abuse, threaten, extort or bribe. This will only intensify as West loses its control over many nations that once took for granted.
I hope and pray Pres Putin will success his goal and Make RUSSIA great nation inspite unfair treatement by US UK FRAN. I salute Russia for being patient, have strong determination to establish peace in the world..Let us support RUSSIA to establish peace in SYRIA and other part of the world.I strongly believe Putin will be successful GOD WILLS….
I urge the Israeli and their supporters in destructions in human dignity to remind the Israelis leaders of the reason behind the Roman Empire and Nazis treatment are still available.give peace chance and leave peacefully with your neighbours
Syrian air defence would have done exactly what they were bought for. Is that called a fear factor ?
"Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed that the State Duma, the lower house of Russia’s parliament, consider the candidacy of Dmitry Medvedev for the post of the country’s prime minister, the Kremlin said in a statement Monday."
Last artical I read said that the U.S. was light years away from a ram jet, and of course Lockheed and the rest will continue to pump out the failed projects like the F-22 F-35 and their super duper dogs called destroyers,none of them work but they still keep on funding them,well until they are bankrupt of course.!!
US $ 610 billion defense budget for US military does not go to production of better weaponry than Russian. It goes to PROFITS for those who run the US military industrial complex. Don’t be duped
Russia lost USSR in the Cold War. In the “Trump” era, Putin will “thump” Trump & win the “Holy Grail” with USA her prized vassal state. Dominance of air & sea will count for little!