While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu marched in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Immortal Regiment in memory of Russian fighters who died in World War II, Israel was getting ready to retaliate for an Iranian rocket attack on Israeli military units in the strategically sensitive Golan. Israel attributed the missile attack to Iran’s al-Quds Force, an elite unit of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) operating in Syria.
The Quds Force reports directly to the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, who certainly authorized the Iranian strike and must take full responsibility for the consequences.
The first ever incident in which Iran directly attacked Israel territory – with the launch of 20 missiles – ended in complete failure.
The Israeli Defense Ministry reported that “four of the 20 projectiles launched by Iranian troops were intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defense system and the rest fell in Syria.” The rockets included both Grad and Fajr-5 models.
The Grad is an old Soviet tube-launched 122mm rocket that is largely a terror weapon because it is inaccurate. The Fajr-5 is a larger Iranian-produced missile (333mm) that is based on a Chinese model. It supposedly has an accuracy of some 220 meters.
Israel responded to the Iranian attack with a much larger strike of 70 missiles that targeted Iranian bases, command centers and weapons depots in Syria and Syrian air defenses around Damascus, and other more forward air defenses on the Syrian part of the Golan.
According to Israel’s Defense Ministry, the Syrian air defenses have been battered to the degree where they are no longer functional and need to be completely rebuilt. Israel says the retaliatory strike was successful against most of the Iranian targets but it will take time before a reliable assessment can be made.
Iran’s attempt to strike Israel and the powerful response suggests a significant change is afoot in geostrategic dynamics in the Middle East.
Here are the key points to consider:
Russia was informed by Israel ahead of the attack on the Iranians, a fact that was officially stated by the Israel Defense Ministry spokesperson and reported by the Russian press. It is noteworthy that there were only two foreign visitors to Russia’s 73rd annual Victory Parade and its March of the Immortals: the President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić, and Netanyahu.
When President Putin offered to pin the Ribbon of St. George to their jackets, Vučić refused. Netanyahu accepted. The Ribbon of St. George is a ribbon of remembrance of the participants in World War II and also is a nationalist symbol. Netanyahu also marched with President Putin and, like the nearly one million Russians who joined the march, carried a placard with a photo and name of a loved one lost in the World War II conflict.
Netanyahu’s presence in Moscow represents in the strongest possible terms that the two leaders have achieved an operational modus vivendi, allowing the Israeli and Russian militaries to work out a deconfliction system for their air forces and air defenses. Russia has consistently demonstrated its willingness to tolerate attacks by Israel against shipments of weapons and weapons depots that are either supporting the Iranians or Hezbollah.
Iran has to be alarmed that Russia and Israel are working in close collaboration in Syria. Iran has been pushing to add to the 10 permanent bases it has in Syria and now wants a naval port, but Assad has refused due to Russian objections. Israel would certainly object to an Iranian naval presence as well.
Iran’s strategic objective is to dominate an arc of countries from Iran, through Iraq, Lebanon and Syria and eventually Jordan as a powerful Shia front that would form the basis not only for Iran’s expansion but would put huge military pressure on Israel. Iran already has disproportionate influence in Iraq and has control of Lebanon through the Hezbollah. But Syria is far more important because of its proximity to Israel and the many installations Iran has built there.
The Russians have been under considerable pressure from Israel to control the Iranians or push them out. While the latter option is not likely, Iran’s threats to Saudi Arabia through its missile and nuclear programs, via interventions in Iraq and support of the Houthis in Yemen (including supplying missiles to the Houthis that are fired at Saudi Arabia) are very troublesome to the Russians.
The Russian economy only has two bright spots: arms sales, which expands Russia’s influence and helps bolster Russia’s underfunded military, and oil and gas exports, with exports to Europe and China significant to Russia’s economic survival. Consequently, the Russians need to maintain good relations with key players in the oil and gas market, especially Saudi Arabia. While Iran also is an oil exporter, it is well below the top 10 exporters.
The last thing Russia wants is an extended war in Syria that will eat up more of its resources and send home more Russian casualties, which would be regarded with considerable negativity on the home front. The restive Russian public is hungry for domestic economic growth and a reduction in military confrontations. Putin has already signaled he is going in that direction and is trying to reduce military expenditures.
Syria is a drain and it will get worse if the Iranians and Hezbollah stir up more trouble, particularly as ISIS and partners such as al-Nusra are all but defeated. As George Aiken the former Vermont Senator said about the costly Vietnam conflict, why don’t we just declare victory and leave? For the Russians in Syria, they would like to declare victory (and Putin tried to once before) but stay. From Russia’s perspective, Iran is an uncontrollable and increasingly irrational ally, especially the IRGC and the al-Quds force operating on Syrian territory.
Iran is dangerously exposed in Syria. Its elite al-Quds fighting force is there and would have long supply lines to maintain if it gets into an extended conflict with Israel. If the Russians cannot control the Iranians, Russia might decide to stand aside and let the Israelis annihilate the al-Quds force and the mercenaries Iran imported to fight in Syria, to reduce Iranian casualties.
The Iranians have to be aware that while there is a modus vivendi between Israel and Russia, it may also be the forthcoming key to a rapprochement between Washington and Russia. President Donald Trump has changed the dynamics of the great game by terminating the JCPOA Iran nuclear “arrangement.”
While Trump has been constrained in Washington by allegations of his administration’s alleged collusion with the Russians in somehow backing Russian election interference, Trump is playing a strong international role symbolized by the upcoming meeting between himself and Kim Jong-un. If even partially successful this will shift the balance of political support in Trump’s favor and give him a chance, with Israel’s possible assistance to approach the Russians on a number of major issues including nuclear arms control, Ukraine and Crimea and challenges to NATO. Iran could well pay the price if this develops.
Iran has been largely left without any challenge in its geopolitical march forward. No one knows what Iran would be like if directly challenged. Probably even the Iranians don’t know. Recent developments suggest now could be the time to find out.
BRYEN HAS UNVEILED THE ZIONIST PLAN FOR IRAN. IT APPAERS THAT PUTIN IS GOING TO TURN ATALANTIST AND GLOBALIST. NETANYAHU WITH THE HELP OF THE US. MILITARY AT HIS BACK CAN AND WILL DO AS HE PLEASES. IRAN IS GOING TO BE ATTACK AND IT LOOKS SOONER THAN LATER. THE BRAZENESS OF NETAHYAHUS MOVES PROVES THIS. AND THE ""IMMORTAL"" PARADE WITH NETANYAHU WAS THE PUBLIC ANNOUNCEMENT OF ITS ALLEGENCE WITH THE ZIONIST .BAD DAY FOR SYRIA AND ASSAD AND IRAN.HEZZBULLAH IS STANDING ALONE YET AGAIN. SIC SEMPRE TYRANNUS
1. stop posting in CAPITALS – implies you are SHOUTING 2. RUN, to your nearest competent mental health professional, you’ll feel better
The article is a bit deluded.
Another rosy scenario. Slam dunk. etc. What could possibly go wrong-
Putin is sending signals that he is crying "uncle" to the west. He just re-appointed Medvedev. Supposedly Lavrov is O.U.T. so the so-called Axis of Resistance is about to lose a member. Nutonyahoo must be jumping up n down like a chimp in his cage.
cvbcvbcvb
Why don’t you tell us.
Pretty smart chimp…
I’ve got his banana, Right HERE!!!
Shame on you Bryen, shame on all the corporate media tools. Not one of you bothers to do anything but parrot the military industrial complex, oil industry and banking industry and of course the perpetual victim isreal.
Syria no more attacked isreal than it attacked it’s own people with chemical weapons, while winning back it’s own country, from a us, isreal, British and saudi attack. You and your fellow media parrots will be responsible when Isreal starts ww3. The MIC media. That has lied us into every war, that as watched the few reporters who tell the truth be killed.
People are starting to know what absolute liars the corporate media are, because you have become so blatantly stupid, and arrogant and lazy.
Plesr explain more,,
Please let us to know what do you think about Russian relation to Israel,
Please tell us what do you think about Russian relation with Israel,
Can this be interpreted as Russia’s betrayal of its allies when it is convenient for Russia? Our memories of what happened to Cuba are still fresh in our minds. The US on the other hand has the history of standing by its allies to the bitter end. This is a shame to Russia.
Daniel Berg
Disappointment, but it drives me bananas with the first word spewed are 1 dead wrong and 2 nothing more then propaganda
The us stands by it’s allies as long as they can have bases surrounding Russia
This is a very Israeli biased article, which says a lot about its author.
Israel is probably the greatest danger to the world at this point in
time, and if permited to get stronger, will be a true hazard to peace.
I think this is the best for everyone. For now. Iran is an erratic ally for anyone.
While I appreciate the authors military equipment knowledge, this piece has a number of errors both major and minor (like the statements on Russia’s economy). Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat and a major exporter of agriculture products),
Yes, Putin has decided that Russia is more interested in improvements to domestic Russian issues like income and life expectancy, than allowing Iran to pick a fight with Israel.
Make no mistake, Iran is an important ally and Russia will never "…stand aside and let the Israelis annihilate the al-Quds force and the mercenaries Iran imported to fight in Syria, to reduce Iranian casualties."
Further, I don’t see how the author can make the statement that Israel will be "..the forthcoming key to a rapprochement between Washington and Russia." No rapproachment is going to happen regardless of what President Trump does in North Korea, and how is Israel a key? I didn’t realize Israel was the deciding factor on US foreign policy?
Finally, the last paragraph of essentially stating that Iran should be attacked and bombed because it launched some old missiles at Israeli military positions in the Golan Heights (where they shouldn’t legally be) should make this article an "opinion" piece.
Daniel Berg It is making Iran sound like some imperialist superpower. The fact is that the Syrian government was on the verge of being toppled by Saudi sponsored Wahhabi headchoppers and Iran intervened first and then Russia, both were invited by the legitimate government. Israeli aim is to keep the pot boiling, but may not work out that way. Setting fire to the neighbor’s house is never smart, especially when illegally squatting on their front yard i,e Golan Heights.
The latest fire exchange was carefully calibrated
1-Bibi met Putin, then Israel and "Iran" exchanged limited fire
2-"Iranian" missiles opportunistically missed for most Golan-let alone Israel
3-IDF declared it had "finished" its mission the day after.
Except some pro-israeli commentators, can anyone cite a line showing Russia is getting closer to Israel?
Rather, Netanyahu has noticed the US has sanctioned itself out of the Middle East, so he went to the only hard power that could broker a deal with Iran…
If I read well what IDF spokesman, Defense minister said, the hositilities are finished for now: It could be Israel needed to show some support of Trump after the repudiation of the Iran deal.
Bibi’s popularity is highest for now, without any real war. And Olmert was sacked after he went to a war he partly won. The likelihood of Israel doing more is fairly limited. For now.
STEPHEN BRYEN who is paying you? You are a Anglo Zionist propagandist….Get outta here with this BULL-SHYT…
What if the purpose of the attacks was to measure the laser and other mechanisms of the attacking missiles, so in one sweeping move, disable all the missiles at once with electronic warfare means?
It has been hypothesized that Russia had set up things for Israel and the US to attack so they could measure their pulse frequencies.
IF that is the case, the US/Israel have already lost. Remember, Putin is a Judo Champion and really good chess player.
Think, think, think Pooh.
Can some one talk about peace instead of war. Ask those who have lost their sons, daughters, siblings and parents for these unjust wars???
Daniel Berg Hi … Netha was there to beg the Russians not to supply S-300 to Syria. That was the case only. Netha was in the parade but it means nothing. Saddam was also with Ramsfield smiling etc. Saddam did launch a war by the request of USA-Israel-Saud axis but was hanged by the CIA-MOSSAD-WAHABBI axis. Please be rational. Russia is doing its job. Syria is maintaing the interest of Russia in the ME as well as in Europe by disallowing the famous Nabucco gas pipe Line passing through its territory from the Gulf Arabs to Turkey and then to Europe . If so then Russia will turn into zero. So it is the Russian interest , not the interest of Assad and co. Iran is becoming stronger day by day . The US sanction theory around the world will turn it into a economic shut down. Time will say all. Result: Total collaspe of the Khazari -Zionic empire on earth.
Ilya Ilyayev Russia and Iran dont have same objectives in Syria, 1. Iran ,Iraq and Syria want pipeline for oil+gas ,from Persian gulf whole the way to the sea in Syria, Russia dont like this, why? you should know better, 2. Syria,Iraq and Iran want Golan H. ,, Russia dont want this,, 3. Iran,Iraq and Syria are subject to Israel+US expansion policy,, Russia only want keep its bases in Syria,
Great article!
Ilya Ilyayev I like your analysis, but he s right, Iran try to have land access to Israel, it s a mather of survival , it knows to be the next target hence the reasons why she needs foot hold in the region, at the end Israel will just push it’s way out to Iran no mather what or who
Sohel Saheen the S 300 and 400 can be taken out.Israel doesnt want to be forced to do so since they will surely be manned by the Russians and that would make Putin go nuts.theyre trying to avoid this problem.Iran aside from the terrorist card and a few missiles.there isnt much they can do against Israel.Hezbollah surely will stir the pot.but up to what extend? theyve been bloodied in Syria.will they risk Israel getting fed up and take out their hard to replace key personnel and take out their leaders?
Ilya Ilyayev true
Iran’s military might as boasted by the regime is simply a fuzz. Iran’s missile capabilities as show case in Syria simply went puff. If there will be a confrontation now between these 2 countries, Iran will turn out to be more of a casualty; meaning to say a loser.
ایک محبت اور سہ
You must be a fking idiot to even think anybody believe your bullshit
ایک محبت اور سہی if you click on that fuming link, sorry you have been hacked…..hahahaha
Rubbish ! These are fake news !
Siol Iran, serang Israel macam melepaskan batuk di tangga je…..bodoh ke takut ?
Roy Blades… The terrorist organization called ISIS is formed by Israel-USA-Wahabbi saud thugs . So the terrorist is Israel-USA-Wahabbi evil axis. Non sense to say against S-300 where as Soviet made of 1970’s ,S-200 was enough to shoot down all those toys launched by Israel-USA -NATO evil axis. Shame! That Netayahoo went to Putin and BEG not to provide Syria with S-300. We saw all those pathetic begging of Netayahoo. Stop saying stupid things. Be rational.
Good one. Irianians have unreliable Allies. And so their leadership must give a second thought in its Power games against the Children of God.