Three is company. But if the trilateral dialogue format in international diplomacy seldom produces concrete results, that is because it cannot be sequestered from external influences. Besides, the three participants are bound to have specific interests and priorities. The long-awaited Turkey-Russia-Iran trilateral summit in Ankara on April 4 has been no exception.
The summit didn’t end as a damp squib but its outcome has been measly. Three reasons can be attributed to this. First and foremost, the US President Donald Trump might have been responsible.
The Ankara summit’s main agenda was Syria, but Trump’s “very-soon” remark in Ohio last Thursday introduced a strategic ambiguity into the Syrian situation. And he deepened the ambiguity further on the eve of the summit by stating on Tuesday at a meeting at the White House that he wanted to immediately withdraw US forces from the war-torn country, arguing that the US had already won the battle against the Islamic State.
Trump said, “I want to get out — I want to bring our troops back home. It’s time. We were very successful against ISIS.” Trump literally barged into the Istanbul tent and hijacked the mind of the three presidents.
What is the Syria that Erdogan, Putin and Rouhani would discuss – a Syria with open-ended US military presence or a Syria denuded of the Americans? That is now the big question.
Pentagon and White House split on what to do?
Even then, it is very unclear whether Trump himself is free to make up his mind. A former British ambassador to Syria Peter Ford framed the paradigm this way: “I have a feeling that there are divided counsels within the Pentagon, definitely in the White House (regarding US troop removal from Syria). Trump sincerely wants to get out since it’s what he campaigned on, but whether he’ll be allowed to by elements of the ‘deep state’ is the question.”
The good thing is that there could be elements within the Pentagon who too who aren’t necessarily happy about an open-ended military presence in Syria without a clear-cut objective. The military mind cannot focus well when there are gnawing doubts.
Second, the disclosure (by the Kremlin first) that Trump has invited Putin to the White House has opened a vista of new possibilities. What if a joint Russian-American peace initiative in Syria gets revived? Trump now becomes a “stakeholder” in a Syrian settlement.
On the contrary, if the trilateral Russian-Turkish-Iranian dialogue on Syria (known as the Astana process) has gravitas today, it is mainly due to the Trump administration’s retrenchment from the Syrian peace process. The dalliance that the Obama administration (secretary of state John Kelly) kept going with the Kremlin (foreign minister Sergey Lavrov) has petered out and what remains today is the military-to-military “deconfliction” mechanism between the US and Russia to ensure that they don’t shoot at each other in Syria.
But, if Trump and Putin breathe new life into a Russian-American joint enterprise to choreograph a Syrian settlement, the Astana process gets relegated to the backburner. Participants at the Ankara summit agreed to hold the next meeting in Astana in mid-May, but much water might flow under the bridge by then.
Decision on Iran deal due by May 12
Third and finally, the fate of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) remains the “known unknown.” Trump is due to make a decision on the Iran nuclear deal by May 12. And the geopolitics of the Middle East could change dramatically, depending on what he decides to do – especially if Trump were to pull the US out of the JCPOA.
The conventional wisdom is that changes at the US State Department and the National Security Council presage a more hawkish US foreign policy toward Iran. But there are weighty arguments too as to why Trump may not sound the death knell of the JCPOA and opt instead to simply give the nuclear deal a fresh lease of life, as he has done twice already.
To be sure, depending on the state of play in US-Iranian relations, the geopolitics of the Middle East could change and Syria is the theatre where this could see visible impacts in the near-term. So it was notable that Iranian President Hassan Rouhani didn’t go for Trump’s jugular at the Ankara summit. Iran also refrained from pushing any fresh initiatives and seemed more or less happy with a passive role – biding its time and brooding, as it were.
Given the above, what did the summit actually achieve? For a start, trilateral dialogue is always primarily a statement. What emerges from yesterday’s summit on the Bosporus is that the western influence in Syria (and the Levant) is inexorably on the wane. The summit underscored that the three countries intend to reinforce their influence in Syria.
Having said that, while the summit flagged the intention of the three countries to deepen cooperation, they also have divergent goals. For instance, the Turkish priority was that Russia and Iran continued to acquiesce with its military operation. Erdogan stated at the joint press conference, “Turkey will not stop until all regions under PYD/PKK (Kurdish militia) control, including Manbij, are secured… Turkey values Russia and Iran’s solidarity with its Afrin operation, we will establish grounds for peace in Afrin.” Rouhani and Russian President Vladimir Putin neither nodded agreement nor dissented.
The single most important outcome of the summit where all three countries have shared interest is in their forceful affirmation of the unity and territorial integrity of Syria and their rejection of “all attempts to create new realities on the ground under the pretext of combatting terrorism.”
The bottom line is that Russia, Turkey and Iran have a strong convergence of interests in the termination of the US military presence in Syria. Paradoxically, here again the Trump factor comes in. Their brittle alliance faces an existential threat if Trump somehow realizes his dream of bringing the US troops in Syria back home “where they belong.”
The US empire is crumbling to a demise. Nobody can help a situation whose time has come.
Nobody leaves until the oil is distributed amongst the players. Thats the end game and why they are there.
It will be interesting to see for how long when US soldiers begin dying. A new group, The Popular Resistance Forces of East Syria, has begun attacking US positions in NE Syria. Most likely aligned with Iran, the arabs on the east side of the Euphrates (who do not like what the Kurds have done), are going to make it very expensive for the US to stay in Syria.
Nonsensical upside down reasoning.
This is not an end of war in Syria yet.
Galen Linder Is there a difference?
James Richardson Phillipines?
I would like to offer an entirely different assessment. And as I do not have a reason for being cautious and reserved — no need to fudge.
Turkey, Iran and Russia are not a grouping of states linked by transational intrests. It is a strategic, regional power, with the goal of stabilizing the Middle East, eliminating the European and US factor from controlling its political, security and economic future, and in the process of including other countries into the process. At present, Iraq is alreadty fully on board, and so is Egypt. Saudi Arabia is in he process of rebalancing its foreign policy, as its customer base is on the East, and Russia is the guarantor of energy price stability.
Why is there this persisting view out there that, unless one is dealing with an European country or institution, that a perspective by others is less worthy. Thus, US, cannot challenge the goals of the regional allience. We continuously here about presumed conflicts between Turkey and Damascus, Turkey and Iran, etc. In reality, they are working in concert. Kurds do have some decisions to make. They received various proposals from Russia and Damascus on the disarming YPG, and letting Syrian army take over border control, as well as the governance of the province, in line with the pre-war lines of authority, pending discussions on the new constitution. YPG refused, and Turkey, as promised, went into Afrin region to disarm or expell YPG. This is in line with both Russian and Damascus goals. Damascus is however keeping open doors to Kurds, should things change following the ouster of YPG. Turkey will proceed as planned, removing Kurds from power in all the towns, villages and settlements, where Kurds are minority, as the majority will not accept Kurds in control. US has empowered Kurds to lord over majority, but their patience is coming to an end, so Turkey’s job is going to get easier. In Afrin, Kurdish majority may have simpathies for YPG, but moving on to Manbij, Raqqa and all along Euphrates river to the east and Iraqi border — Turkey will find the support of the population. This is what makes US position untennable.
It is hard to undersand why is it so difficult to understand that Shangai Cooperation Organization, both principles, membeship and goals. Is it really so hard to grasp that these three countries are supported in their endeavor not only by Kazkhstan, but by the entire SCO. With US position weakening in Saudi Arabia — there are no committed allies left in the Middle East for US to rely on. Israel alone cannot provide the basis for US to stay on in Iraq or Syria.
The meeting among the three guarantors of Syrian peace was dedicated to Syrian reconstruction. Western talk about Assad is geting more and more feeble every day. The bottom line is, security will be accomplished once Turkey and Russia adress the issue of Kurdish decision , US position in Al-Tanf region resolved, and Idlib pacified. Turkey and Russia already have dozen of checkpoints there. Every other pocket is no longer a concern.
Saudi Arabia, not any more. Certainly, the country is now rebalancing its foreign policy. And with a reason. US is no longer the most important energy customer, China is. US is also not a factor of stability of energy pricing system, one can say just the opposite. Russia is. Both of them are now of very high importance to Saudi Arabia. Additionally, Wahhabism that fueled the extremist Islamic cults that, under whatever name, destroyed the Middle East, is now in the way of the reforms in Saudi Arabia. And Wahhabism is the element of Saudi power structure that is close alligned with Zionism and Israel. This is another equasion.
Trump Trump Trump B.S. propaganda,Trump made no moves to withdraw American troops until the French agreeded to go in and replace them, and after the French it will be another NATO country,and as far as Trump having any effect on the meeting between Iran Russia and Turkey its nothing but a pipe dream, for the simple fact is he’s pis&ed because we were barred from attending, and empires don’t like to be treated in such a manner.!!!
Stalin had a hell of a lot more on his plate than to be disproportionly with the Zionists. What about the Imperialists?
For awhile, perhaps, but it will not be able to create a Kosovo on the Euphrates.
One thing for sure is that Trump will lose no votes by pulling out of Syria. He may even gain. It will be interesting to see the orders of battle on this one.
James Richardson When the country the usa has invaded with military bases is too strong, they leave. The USA will not fight Turkey or Iran. They have 700 military bases around the world. The USA are not crazy, they are very crazy!…
Trump is just joshing us….he doesn’t intend to leave Syria
Oh Really!!! The U.S. lost the base it had in Iran and is now rapidly on the way to losing its base in Turkey too.
The deep state set up the break up of Iraq, Lybia, Northern Africa, Seria, and Iran and control all.
Set up with the 9/11 issue, using the CIA to create Al-cida, ISIL, ISIS, and other Islamic groups as our ( enemy ) and were never asked to enter.
This has created the mess in Europe, Africa, Asia, North, Ceneral and South America, allowing these animals to move freely worldwide.
The Private federal reserve is 10% away from total destruction, now Russia, China and several countries have set gold as the currency as the exchange medium. This will cause the dollar as world currency to end and this nation will not allow this, 3 options, 1, depression, 2, WW3, allow this to cause the nations on the fiat money they are on to collapse as is going on now…
This deep state operation has set in motion the fuse to destroy the world.
We have been asleep to long and looks as we are done…
The USA never leaves country where they have military bases!…
President Trump promised days ago to withdraw the 2000 US soldiers from Syria. We must hope he keep his promise, but he changes his mind more often than he changes his underwear.
The Iran-Turkey-Russia alliance will bring stability as soon as the US goes home. There is no point for the US to risk US soldier’s life in this conflict. The US is the fifth wheel on the wagon. The Iran-Turkey-Russia alliance will reduce the risk for a US war with Iran. The Chinese investment in Iran should also be a deterrent for aggression against Iran.
Syria need to be rebuild as soon as possible so the refugees can go back to their home land. The refugees have suffered a lot. The refugee children have lost many years of schooling. Iran has given Iraq a $2 billion loan facility, so Iraq can start rebuilding.
Confused reasoning. The US leaving Syria soon can never be a problem to Russia-Turkey-Iran. And Russia will never again allow itself to be tied to US interests or strategies. The US is being pushed out of the ME and Russia will not stop until that has been achieved. Only Israel and Saudi may remain in the US sphere of influence. For how long will remain to be seen.