All bets are off on the outcome of India Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s potentially ground-breaking meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping this Friday and Saturday in Wuhan.
Things have not exactly started in auspicious mode.
After a meeting in Beijing of foreign ministers represented at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), India, once again refused to support the New Silk Roads, known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the final communiqué.
Every other SCO member – represented by the foreign ministers of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Pakistan – did.
So here we go again – back to the interminable, intractable India-Pakistan soap opera.
Both India and Pakistan were admitted as full members of the SCO in 2017. The SCO, led by China and Russia, is the premier Eurasian mechanism dealing not only with security matters but also expanding, in these past few years, towards economic cooperation.
New Delhi though argues that one of BRI’s key connectivity projects – the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – runs through sections of Kashmir that it considers occupied territory.
Still, the Chinese Foreign Ministry is putting out the best PR possible on the informal Modi-Xi meeting. They’re bound to discuss CPEC in detail. Formally, any breakthrough may be announced at the next SCO summit in June, in Qingdao, China.
Don’t touch the Iran nuclear deal
This key China-India rift inside the SCO actually mirrors the much bigger clash between BRI and the so-called “Indo-Pacific” strategy pushed by Washington in conjunction with India, Japan and Australia. New Delhi seems to consider BRI and Indo-Pacific mutually exclusive.
BRI though is a vast pan-Eurasian economic integration project while Indo-Pacific is essentially a vehicle for military containment of China.
Economically, New Delhi is concentrating on the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) – which aims to link Russia with India via Iran. Additionally, India’s investment in Chabahar port in Iran aims to configure its own New Silk Road to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan.
And that brings us to a crucial SCO subplot. Every member-nation – with special relevance in the case of BRICS members China, Russia and India – supports the JCPOA, or the Iran nuclear deal. Iran, currently an observer, is bound to be admitted as a full SCO member by 2019.
When it comes to the classic SCO staple of fighting terrorism, Iran also fits (heavily supported by the three BRICS). Tehran is actively fighting Daesh in both Iraq and Syria, as well as all forms of jihadism in Afghanistan. All these key players – the three BRICS plus Iran – favor a SCO-led solution for Afghanistan.
On top of it, earlier this week Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signed an agreement to set up a free trade zone between Iran and the Russian-led Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU).
So Iran is a key hub of BRI; a partner of India in the INSTC; an imminent member of the SCO; and it’s now linked to the EAEU. This acronym-fest spells out Eurasia integration – and fits, economically, into the “extensive contingency plans” evoked by Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in case the Trump administration abandons the JCPOA.
China, Russia and India have clearly identified how Iran relinquished practically 90% of its nuclear program and in the end was “rewarded” by increased US sanctions. As for Iran’s ballistic missile program – which was never part of the JCPOA – that’s much less advanced compared to Russia, India or Pakistan for that matter. The message by the three BRICS/SCO member nations is clear; the JCPOA is untouchable.
And the winner in the South China sea is…
As for India relying on the non-SCO “Indo-Pacific” club as a counterpunch to BRI, seems like New Delhi has not read the fine print.
So it’s quite enlightening to examine the extensive questions posed by the US Senate to Admiral Philip Davidson, the expected nominee to lead the US Pacific Command (PACOM).
To sum it all up, here’s Davidson’s Top Three:
- “China is pursuing advanced capabilities (e.g., hypersonic missiles) which the United States has no current defense against. As China pursues these advanced weapons systems, US forces across the Indo-Pacific will be placed increasingly at risk.”
- “China is undermining the rules-based international order.”
- “In short, China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States.”
That unveils Indo-Pacific as essentially a strategy of containment applied to the South China Sea – even as Beijing is also very much implicated in consolidating the Maritime Silk Road across the Indian Ocean.
It’s unrealistic to expect India to come up with a far-reaching pan-Eurasia economic integration project that even barely matches BRI. New Delhi’s best bet is to fight jihadism in conjunction with the SCO while economically investing in the INSTC. No BRI? That’s India’s choice.
Unfortunately, little England did such a good job of mentally enslaving their Indian colonial subjects that it doesn’t look like India will be ever be free from thinking they need somehow to be close to the white imperial masters.
Arthur Micol
Stupid. India cannot become a client state like you fools. You have 700 million dollars in foreign exchange while India 400 billion dollars. Your stupid economy is less than Bangladesh now. Your economy is 200 billion while Indias is 3 trillion. The same mung dal eaters surrendered your 90 thousand Punjabis, Pathans as slaves. And then the same mung dal has split your country into two halves. China respects India and vice versa. Did you see the upcoming meeting on equal terms? When China and India talks, they talk like matrue nations. First, correct your relationships with Afghanistan, Iran then come back to India.
For domestic reasons, India couldnt offcially accept the Pak-China corridor . But China and India can agree to disgarre and move on .India can rely on Iran to get access to Kbaul,Stan,Russia and Georgia Armenia, Azerbaizan . India and China can esablish their own connectivity throigh Nepal and through Mynamar and Bangladesh. 4 billions people cant saty didvied over rleigions for ever . Will USA allow India ?
What’s wrong with Mung Daal you idiot! Lots of protein and easy on stomach!
Rameez Ahmed , amend your words, Pakistan keeps all the Indian threats under its it’s feet. India can’t harm Pakistan. Its only a barking dog, which we know better will never dare biting, coz, it knows it will meet it’s certain death the day it tried to bite instead of barking.
Roly Poly , and yet not strong enough protein to stand before lions which comes with beaf or mutton, and that’s the commodity Indian public and military can’t afford to eat.
Rameez Ahmad
This is the language you people use. Is this what your religion teaches you. Is this the language your parents have taught you. Fault is not yours. Fault is your parents, who gave you an extremely vulgare training.
Today, India and China are matured nations. They are discussing on equal terms. They will be the greatest trading partners in the history of mankind.
Dont take out your frustration on India. First deal with Chor Nawaz Shareef and chor Zardari. Your country is looted, destroyed by pakistanis. Your Jinnah has stupidly divided Muslims into three parts. And you foolishly calls him Qaid e Azam. Why dont you worship him.
Bangladesh has become a tiger by kicking you out. One of the fastest growing economies in the world.
Why are you talking China and India. Talk of your country. Or get lost.
Muhammad Fayyaz
The same people cut you half in 1971.
No other people have accepted Islam more than Hindus.
Today, alhamdulillah, India has 350 thousand mosques, second only to Indonesia.
Muslim poulation exploded 200% to second position.
Alhamdullillah, India has 40 thousand medressas.
Alhamdulillah, the world HQs of deoband, nadwa, barelwi, tabliqee jamaat, jamat e islami are in India.
Since 1947, half a million pakistanis have killed each other. 5000 Shias are murdered.
Not one Muslim law is established in Pakistan.
Muhammad Fayyaz
The barking dog cut you half in 1971.
India and China are very matured nations. They will become the greatest trading partners in the coming decades. India does not have to go to central asia. It is already built the port of Chahbar.
India has vast ocean to connect with. It is surrounded by Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea. It can connect to Africa, middle east, Malaysia, Japan, Koreas, Australia without any problem.
India does not dictation from America. It decides its own foreign policies. Iran, India, China are the countries who are independent in their decisions. They are not client states.
Sincerely,
China and India are bound to become the greatest trading partners in the coming decades.
India and Chinas trade is about to cross 100 billion dollars.
Roly Poly
The same mung dal has split pakistan into two in 1971
Fortunately for the rest of us India is low grade nation with sub-human culture of rape, defecation on streets, hindu evil practise of idol worship etc, with such poor quality national mindset, india will never amount to anything but a slum, a cesspool ….historical it was a slum and a gutter and it will remain so.
Shuja Syed And yet hindu slum poodles are still crapping on streets and raping ugly hindu women….use that begging money to build some toilets…..lol
Roly Poly no wonder dirty hindus stink like their gutter slum country hindia….LOL
Shuja Syed what splitting u r talking about . Why u Hindus keep bragging about 1971. Splitting was done to India not Pakistan. Pakistan got for free for them which they shud not even had it if it’s wasnot about British. Now go ahead and get Kashmir. No sane person want to have Bangladesh anyways.
Muhammad Fayyaz Koi nahi… Ask your 90K Plus mutton and pork eating lions that were captured by the moong dal eating army in Bangladesh war… that did’t work out too well for you, now did it?
Shuja Syed jaisa muh waisi chapeer.
$55 billion trade deficit with China . U called it a trade. It’s a loss
Lol, until next election… or RSS/Hindu clown jump out for attention…
Muhammad Fayyaz
And those lions are getting beatun up every where in the world. Afghanistan destroyed, Pakistan into two halves, Iraq destroyed, Libya gone, Yemen gone, Syria gone. And these fools are talking of lions.
Rameez Ahmad
No problem. That will change around when Chinse GDP rises and wages rises above the indian labour. They will be the greatest trading partners the mankind is known. They already crossed 100 billion dollars. They are very matured people unile US MUSLIMS. Shame on us.
Shuja Syed To me better, hardworking, honest nation shud rule whether it’s hindu or muslim or atheist . If the country can’t run its affairs properly then just surrender itself to other better race.
Sammy Ahmad
You call yourself Muslim. Chi chi chi chi. No other community accepted Islam more than Hindus.
India is the largest trade market in Indian subcontinent, and the purchasing power is much more then rest of the regional powers combined. India can avoid CEPC all together, making it an economically unviable project.
Sammy Ahmad : Says a Chinese concubine, who was until recently sucking ChaCha Cucumber??? Now ChaCha does not give money, so cuking on Chinese baby carrots?
Rameez Ahmad Says a Chinese concubine, who was until recently sucking ChaCha Cucumber??? Now ChaCha does not give money, so cuking on Chinese baby carrots???
Maria Turner : Looks like your rented Paki Arse has many stories to tell…Go on…
You think everyone like Chinks were Opium adicts? LOL Go get a life Chinki
Rameez Ahmad Says a Chinese concubine!! who was until recently sucking ChaCha Cucumber??? Now ChaCha does not give money, so cuking on Chinese baby carrots?
Useless and silly comment !
Rajeev Chawla comment was racist. Edited too?
Rameez Ahmad like Pakistan?
Fortunately for the rest of us India is low grade nation with sub-human culture of rape, defecation on streets, hindu evil practise of idol worship etc, with such poor quality national mindset, india will never amount to anything but a slum, a cesspool ….historical it was a slum and a gutter and it will remain so.
Falcon Dave LOL your mama has good idea about our punjabi Cucumber