As presidents Vladimir Putin, Hassan Rouhani and Recep Tayyip Erdogan met in Ankara for a second Russia-Iran-Turkey summit on the future of Syria, Moscow hosted its 7th International Security Conference attended by defense ministers from dozens of nations.
A more graphic illustration of the synchronicity drive towards Eurasia integration would be hard to find.
Crucially, China sent not only a high-ranking delegation to Moscow, but most of all a loud and clear message. General Wei Fenghe, the new Chinese Defense Minister, side by side with Russian counterpart Sergey Shoigu, said: “The Chinese side came to let the Americans know about the close ties between the Russian and Chinese armed forces.” Shoigu, for his part, underlined the “special character” of the Russia-China partnership.
Even before the meeting the Global Times stressed the point that non-stop Russia demonization coupled with the now rolling US-China trade war will only strengthen the “special character” partnership.
And then Iran’s Defense Minister, Brigadier General Amir Hatami, expanded the scope, saying “foreign plans” related to security in the Middle East would inevitably fail – they must be hatched within Southwest Asia.
What happened in Moscow necessarily must be crossed over with what happened in Ankara.
A common commitment
The first Russia-Iran-Turkey trilateral meeting on Syria was in Sochi on November 22 last year. Sochi led to the formation of the Syrian National Dialogue Congress and a 150-strong committee tasked to draft a new constitution for Syria. All these procedures essentially follow guidelines established by the 2012 Geneva peace process. Even the UN praised Sochi as “an important contribution to a revived intra-Syrian talks process.”
For the Ankara meeting, the foreign ministers of Russia (Sergey Lavrov), Iran (Mohammad Javad Zarif) and Turkey (Mevlut Cavusoglu) met in Astana in early April to prepare the terrain.
The final joint statement is unmistakable, emphasizing their common commitment to the sovereignty, unity, independence and territorial integrity of Syria.
The fact that Ankara is Putin’s first foreign trip after reelection speaks volumes. The Russia-Iran-Turkey strategy on Syria, incrementally developed in Astana, established a delicate balance of de-escalation zones – the Damascus suburb of eastern Ghouta, Idlib, Homs and the Syrian-Jordanian border – and humanitarian corridors, allowing scores of civilians to leave war zones, especially in the case of Ghouta.
The war in Ghouta against a jihadi galaxy has been all but won by the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), supported by a Russian mix of air support and negotiation skills and, significantly, no input from Iranian military commanders. So-called “moderate rebel” remnants were dispatched to Idlib. Damascus is free from shelling. That was the SAA’s biggest victory after the liberation of Aleppo in December 2016.
Northern Syria, however, remains a much trickier proposition, as we have a de facto NATO versus NATO subplot; Turkish troops versus the YPG Kurds, a proxy US force.
The fact that the SAA-Russia offensive in eastern Ghouta happened in parallel to the neo-Orwellian Operation Olive Branch by the Turks in the Kurdish canton of Afrin spells out a complex Russia-Iran-Turkey deal worked out in Astana – as diplomats confirmed to Asia Times.
As much as Tehran may be exasperated by Turkish military incursions into Syria, by ordering Iranian commanders not to interfere in both eastern Ghouta and Afrin, Tehran made sure Ankara would not derail the extermination, and or transfer of jihadis threatening Damascus.
The key discussion at the trilateral summit in Ankara was about what happens next to Idlib – now the ultimate jihadi “moderate rebel” refuge, where Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which is connected to al-Qaeda, is fighting a Syrian Liberation Front backed by Turkey that also happens to harbor hardcore jihadis such as Ahrar al-Sham.
It will all hinge on whether Ankara will be able to persuade this congregation of nasty forces that the war is in fact over. Otherwise, the SAA, backed by Russian airpower, will embark on yet another bombing campaign, potentially adding extra hundreds of thousands of refugees to the 3.5 million already holed up inside Turkey’s borders.
What is certain is that Ankara does not feel inclined to leave Syria’s northwest and north-central areas anytime soon. How Moscow and Tehran – not to mention Damascus – will react is an (explosive) open question.
Get me my S-400s on time
The Russia-Turkey partnership is all business – centered on a crucial energy, nuclear and weapons triangle.
Russia, “at the onset of the creation of the nuclear industry in Turkey,” according to presidential aide Yury Ushakov, will start building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant at Akkuyu at a cost of $20 billion. The first reactor is expected to be ready by 2023, and the plant will be owned by Russia.
Following a contract signed last December, Moscow will also deliver the S-400 surface-to-air defense system to Ankara before 2020, earlier than expected, “at the request of our Turkish friends and partners,” according to Putin. NATO is not exactly pleased.
And then there’s the $12 billion Turk Stream gas pipeline, which is a work-in-progress – with the overland segment about to receive a go-ahead permit from Ankara. Several EU members are not exactly pleased.
All that spells out Russian diplomacy carefully strengthening relations with pinpointed EU-NATO member states. Even as the ultimate target may be to convince NATO to de-escalate from Russia’s western borderlands, or from the Cold War 2.0 Iron Curtain from the Baltic to the Black Sea, that’s still a long way from a game-changer such as Turkey actually ditching NATO.
A stalemate would certainly be reached as a concerted Russia-China charm offensive may lead Erdogan to consider the benefits of joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Ankara is deepening its business ties with both Pakistan, a full SCO member, and Iran, now on observer status and about to become a full member.
Russia, China and Iran are the three key vectors of Eurasia integration, which includes everything from Pipelineistan to trade connectivity networks. Erdogan does not covet the role of sideshow spectator.
And just like clockwork, an extra Russia-Iran integration node may be added as Tehran is expected to join the Russia-led Eurasia Economic Union (EEU) before the end of the year. The free trade EEU – now harboring Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Vietnam – is attracting interest from everyone from China, India and Indonesia to Serbia, Israel and South American nations. Erdogan is certainly paying attention.
And now it’s time to rebuild
From the start, Syria was a Pipelineistan war. A key target was to ditch the prospect of a $10 billion Iran-Iraq-Syria gas pipeline – a memorandum of understanding was signed in 2011 – and replace it with a Qatar to Turkey pipeline via a regime-changed Syria.
Qatar and the House of Saud ended up certified geopolitical losers in Syria. The Saudi blockade of Qatar failed miserably. The new equation reveals Qatar – supported by Oman and Kuwait – getting closer to Iran and even closer to Turkey.
Ankara operates the Tariq bin Ziyad military base in Qatar. Iran and Qatar are deepening cooperation in South Pars – the largest gas field on the planet. Stranger things have happened than foreseeing a pipeline finally being completed in the near future, carrying Iran-Qatar gas and transiting through Turkey, even as Russia and China remain actively involved in the Qatari gas industry.
With the prospect of Syrian reconstruction finally at hand, Beijing will turbo-charge its plans to turn Syria into a key Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) node.
On the Russian front, Energy Minister Aleksandr Novak has confirmed that energy giants Lukoil and Gazprom Neft are already focused on rebuilding – and developing – Syria’s badly damaged energy infrastructure, following a cooperation roadmap signed last February.
The Russian companies have been invited to upgrade the Baniyas refinery and to build a new refinery in partnership with Iran and Venezuela. Damascus and Moscow will launch a direct shipping line to facilitate trade and set up a bank controlled by their own central banks.
According to Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi, nearly US$1 billion worth of agreements on energy, trade and finance have already been signed. Previously, Syrian Ambassador to Russia Riyad Haddad promised that nations which helped Syria fight terrorism “have the right to be at the forefront” of those restoring the country’s economy.
That means, essentially, Russia, Iran and China. It remains to be seen what role – if any – will be played by Erdogan’s new Ottomanism.
Hopefully, someday European countries will realize that joining the Russia led Eurasian Economic Zone is the smart thing to do, ditching the US alliance once and for all. Pushing the US back to its American basis is a priority for all peace loving nations.
Pepe———again knocking the ball out of the park!!
It will happen if Erdogan does not start a fight agaimst Iran
The US lapdogs in Europe will lose faith in their master and leave the failed NATO alliance. NATO was intended to be an alliance to protect peace but has become a war alliance. I have monitored the newspapers and it seems there is an awakening, so one country after another will leave.
What have the US to offer European countries other than insecurity, refugees, and tariffs?
In Asia too, I see the US is losing on all fronts. The Asian countries is feed up with covert operations, regime changes, and bullying.
Israel was an intentional boot stomping on the Middle East. Clinton’s rather than answering Russia’s plea in the 1990s stomped on the Russian Federation. IndoChina War via the Nixon monsters & there is no end to the Rothchild~Rockefeller One World hostile takeover of Earth BUT now human beings can indeed (thank you Pepe) imagine a sane beginning for a more highly intelligent LIFE.
Yes NATO in 1980 vrs NATO now, a complete failure, it has expanded to include all of the Warsaw pact and some of the USSR.
Maybe you should visit Ukraine and put your views there (I suggest security). A nation bound to Russia in kith and kin, who hate Putin and are also beginning to hate Russia (moving their state broadcasting to Ukrainian- more similar to Polish) and having more Latin signs rather than cyrillic.
But it’s alot easier to to research by the www than travel and get your hands dirty.
Or maybe move to good old Russland ?
4 points and 0.5RMB comrade
Falk Rovik
I am a happy, old man to see these developments and hopeful for a better future and the survival of mankind.
Don’t hold your breath for the YPG. NATO/US will abandon them and deliver them to the Turks. Expect more chaos in Syria. That’s what will happen if things don’t go the way the neoliberals want.
Sir,Russia-led Eurasia Economic Union togather with Russian-Chinese Alliance is the result of US total failure of her foreign policies for a decade ie foreign policy run by tiny minority who have vested interest elsewhere that worked against us national interest! Mr trump with all his good intention got himself stuck in the whirlwind of power politics that he is unable to control! With possible devastating consiquence of modern warefare war cannot be a choice! America must admit that she is no longer a super power and her economy and her social fabric is in a mess! She must learn to negotiate with respect to her adversaries! Global people loves America minus the owners of her Banks?
While I have no problems with the authors thoughts on where Turkey is going vis-a-vis tighter integration with Eurasia (EEU and SCO) even though it will most likely not abonden NATO, where I disagree is the statement, "Syria was a Pipelineistan war".
That simply was never true, but keeps being repeated as it’s so easy to see everything in the ME through the lens of energy. The Syrian war was mostly about diminishing the power of the Arab Levant through chaos (the destruction of Syria) for the benefit of Israel and to a lesser extent, Saudi Arabia. Even President Bashar al-Assad has stated the proposed Qatar pipeline was never a significant issue that started the Syrian war.
At this point there is no need for a Qatar natural gas pipleine to Europe via Syria/Turkey as Qatar has a huge investment in it’s LNG gasification plants and most all its natural gas is being bought and shipped to Asia under long term contracts. Only England is a significant buyer of Qatar gas and a pipeline via Turkey for England is not economically justified.
Pepe, Pepe. Allways hits the right tone, identifies the right trends. Never tone deaf, as many analysts tend to be.
But there are some factual errors, and sometimes these are the things that lead us astray. Nothing that cannot be mended.
SFirst, Turkey IS a member of SCO. There are three levels in SCO. Permanent members, observers and partners. Turkey has been accepted into SCO on the partner level in 2013. And following a year of negotiating three charters, was inducted in 2014. The chapters signed are security, economic development, cultural cooperation. While security and the economic development are obvious ones, cultural cooperation is actually one of the major roles Turkey has in SCO. The Road and Belt initiative links Central Asia, all SCO members except Turkmenistan. Turkey is a vital link to many peoples of Central Asia who are wellcoming the influence of Turkish Islam, to counter the agressive push for spreading Wahhabi based Salafism. From Uyghur communities in China’s West, accross Central Asia to Turkey, a new trading platform will be built by Turkey with Chinese funds, in all the languages of Eurasian Silk Road, to support both wholesatle and retail trade. Warehouses and delivery mechanisms are being built and organized. Major infrastructure will link Asia through Iran to Turkey, Balkans, Levant, Egypt and on to Africa. Turkey is becoming both an infrastructure hub, and energy hub. It has been collaborating with Iran on a range of issues, for a long, long time, including bying Iranian gas for gold during sanctions, proposing jointly with Brasil to process Iranian uranium, a method once advocated by US — but backed out of it once Brasil and Turkey recommended it.
Another factual error. Turkey and Qatar were for the longest time on the opposite side from Saudi/US projects. That at times was sucessful, and at times ran into trouble. The issue always was Qatar. With the shared gas field with Iran, it was always a foregone conclusion that they shall cooperate. But Qatar late emir, founded Al-Jazeera. At the time, it was a very professional, technologically advanced media. But it ran afoul of the autocrats during Arab Spring. The fact is, that Al-Jazeera was too good, too professional, and the backlash came swiftly. When voters put Moslem Brotherhood into power in Egypt, and Morsi was elected, Turkey and Qater supported him. But Saudi Arabia, that could not accept Moslem Brotherhood in power, along with its other Gulf allies, suceeded in underminging Egypt’s finances. Also, for years, Saudi Arabia supported Salafi movements in the poorest of Egypt’s countryside. It convinced people that Morsi was trying to prohibit Sharia law in the new constitution. It was a lie, but it did not matter.
Thousands of angry people from countryside showed up in Cairo to demand Morsi to go. He refused to return the power back to military. Miliary had no choice but to remove him But military avoided civil war. It opted to go with Saudi money assistance, not Western IMF offer. But it meant that Moslem Brotherhood had to be sacrificed. But General Sisi did not waste time in seeking Russia’s and China’s help. Turkey and Qatar lost.
Saudi Arabia and US demanded that the old Al-Thani abdicate in favor of his young son, and to turn over Al-Jazeera to "professional", read Western, management. The media has never be same since. Turkey and Qatar worked closely to support one of the competing governments in Tripoli, Libya. In Syria, most people are quick to blame Turkey. But put yourself in its shoes. It was in danger of being cut of from the Middle East. It joined then the mantra of "Assad must go", in order to get a place at the table and advocate a buffer zone on its border. But when it looked like Assad was going to fall, Turkey and Qatar took matter in their own hands. They organized groups the border in areas to try to protect from ISIS. Once Russia entered Syria, Turkey’s positon changed. No longer having to fight alone against US and Saudi mercenaries, its policy changed. But it was not easy. A last ditch effort to stop Erdogan was conducted in November 2015, with shooting Russian plane, sidelining Erdogan as a powerless President, with Davutoglu taking over the government. Things could have gone wrong then. But Erdogan prevailed, and in May Davutogly government resigned, and Erdogan appointed governent changed within two days both the policy to Russia as well as Syria. But the extent of internal struggle was immense. It was clear only six weeks later when an attempted assasination of Erdogan and a coup proved that the Western supported opposition, Soros and Gulen organizations — were ready to strike back. This was another narrow escape. But for the last two years, Turkey has moved rapidly into Eurasian integraions. It is also common in the West to blame Erdogan, as he has move lives then the proverbial cat.