When former political prisoner Aung San Suu Kyi and her long persecuted National League for Democracy party won election in 2015, Western nations which maintained sanctions against the previous rights-abusing military regime cheered the democratic result and hoped for transition.
Suu Kyi was subsequently feted in various European capitals, including Oslo, where she received her Nobel Peace Prize two decades late, and embraced by the United States as a champion of non-violent struggle and civil courage. The West, it seemed, had finally won Myanmar.
Fast forward to the present, Suu Kyi’s Myanmar is dramatically realigning its foreign policy in the wake of Rakhine state’s Rohingya refugee crisis, a stark shift away from recent close relations with the West and a lurch back towards China, Russia and other Asian nations unperturbed by the military’s still rampant rights abuses.
The most important rekindled relationship is with China. Beijing was stunned by Myanmar’s opening to the West during its democratic transition, and has worked hard to engage a wider range of stakeholders, including military officers, government officials, political party members and civil society, community, religious and media leaders.
A new report by the prominent local think tank Institute for Strategy and Policy (ISP) on China’s multi-layered engagement strategy towards Myanmar says it is “designed to generate local support for China’s economic and geostrategic interests in Myanmar…(and) a Chinese model of governance and economic development.”
Indeed, China has pivoted to compete with the West’s pro-democracy soft power to appeal to a broader audience. That’s been seen in the rising number of bilateral study visits and exchanges: Suu Kyi and senior military officers have spent more time in China than anywhere else since the NLD’s election, the ISP report claims.
The announcement of China’s vaunted “One Belt, One Road” global infrastructure initiative has roughly coincided with the crisis in Rakhine state, where more than 600,000 Rohingya Muslims have fled the military’s brutal “area clearance” operations into neighboring Bangladesh.
But as United Nations and Western frustration over the crisis mounts, China has blocked attempts at the UN Security Council to exert more pressure on the government. That’s partly a reflection of China’s ties with Myanmar’s military: Beijing trains hundreds, if not thousands, of Myanmar’s pilots, technical air force staff and special forces troops.
China is now exalting in a rekindled relationship with Myanmar that promises renewed exploitation of its natural resources, the encouragement of anti-democratic values and reversal of recent human rights gains.
It’s all being carefully calibrated to safeguard the government from international pressure on the Rohingya crisis while also managing what Beijing knows is deep and widespread mistrust and animus towards its nationals that is only eclipsed by the nation’s widespread anti-Muslim sentiment.
Other countries who have significant investments, strategic interests or long-term development relations with Myanmar who have not been noticeably vocal on the Rohingya crisis including Russia, Japan, South Korea, India, and neighboring Southeast Asian nations which have registered only perfunctory concern.
Russia, a UN Security Council member Naypyidaw relies on to defuse pressure from the West, is a long-time major arms supplier to the Myanmar military. Mi-35 helicopter gunships and MiG-29 fighter jets purchased over the last decade are now being used regularly in war zones against ethnic insurgents in the country’s north.
Hundreds of Myanmar military officers have been trained in Russian defense academies on a range of subjects for more than a decade. In February, the 70th anniversary of Russian-Myanmar relations was celebrated in Naypyidaw with Suu Kyi and senior top brass meeting with the Burmese- speaking Russian ambassador Nikolay Listopadov.
Listopadov has said the West’s use of the term “ethnic cleansing” to describe the military’s clearance operations against the Rohingya was unhelpful to alleviating the situation.
“I don’t think that it will help to solve this problem. On the contrary, it can aggravate the situation, throw more fuel…We are against excessive external intervention, because it won’t lead to any constructive results. Just pressure and blaming and accusing – it simply won’t work.”
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, meanwhile, visited Myanmar in January to meet with commander-in-chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, after which the two sides announced a new deal to sell six advanced Su-30 fighter planes to the Tatmadaw.
When the US State Department criticized the sale on rights concerns, Moscow’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs retorted it “would like to recall that the people of Southeast Asia have hardly forgotten the casualties and destruction inflicted on them by US weapons during numerous recent wars conducted by the United States in the region.”
Myanmar is thus becoming as a bit actor in an emerging new Cold War between Moscow and Washington.
Japan has been a pivotal partner to Myanmar for years, particularly in infrastructure development, though it has always been uneasy about following the West’s lead on human rights promotion.
When Foreign Minister Toro Kono visited in January to announce emergency food aid for Rakhine state, he almost echoed China when telling state media that “Japan considers it important for the Myanmar government to restore security and safety on the ground in a manner that takes account of human rights.”
With little fanfare, the Fifth Japan-Myanmar Human Rights Dialogue was held in early February but attended only by mid-level foreign affairs officials, consistent with Tokyo’s relegation of rights concerns on its wider diplomatic agenda. That includes the provision of aid to ethnic conflict areas to shore up peace efforts by the influential Nippon Foundation.
Myanmar is becoming a bit actor in an emerging new Cold War between Moscow and Washington
South Korea’s stamp on Yangon is marked by the luxury Lotte Hotel complex, which overshadows the US ambassador’s residence, and the massive Star City gated community across the river where many South Korean businesspeople reside.
South Korea is invested in the textiles, construction and infrastructure sector, while its pop culture of films, soap operas, music and even hairstyles is popular across the country.
Seoul’s influence, however, took a hit in early March when Samsung announced it would scrap plans to build a manufacturing plant in the country. Korean media said the decision was chalked up to concerns over rising conflict, political uncertainty and the government’s inchoate economic reform policies.
Thus the keys to putting international pressure on Myanmar’s military for abuses won’t fit into the locks of all the Asian countries that have long afforded sanctuary and financial security to the country’s mostly soldier elites.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) can also be counted on to shield the country from sanctions and criticism. Neighboring Thailand, a centuries long rival, has secured key business interests and border stability over the past several years.
While calls in the West grow for the Tatmadaw leadership to be indicted by the International Criminal Court, Min Aung Hlaing recently travelled to Bangkok to receive the Knight Grand Cross (First Class) of the Most Exalted Order of the White Elephant, a prominent Thai official honor bestowed by the Thai military.
Myanmar’s government senses that Asean is weak and riven with its own human rights failings. And while uncomfortable with the public outrage expressed in Indonesia and Malaysia over the treatment of the Rohingya, it realizes that Kuala Lumpur especially and to some extent Jakarta are twisting the crisis for their own domestic considerations.
The recently concluded Asean-Australian Summit made clear the priority the regional grouping has on non-interference, while Canberra has apparently also placed its bets on regional stability over championing the rights of the Rohingya.
It is ironic that the two countries which did their utmost to secure Suu Kyi’s 2015 election win and which for decades championed her defiance against abusive military rule, the US and UK, have now been dramatically shunned by the country.
The Myanmar government’s refusal to grant visas to British Parliament International Development Committee members on February 27 was another blow to bilateral relations. The committee’s visit planned to inspect a British £100 million aid program for health and education, one of the nation’s largest directed at highly vulnerable communities.
The EU, meanwhile, has announced it will support the Myanmar National Human Rights Commission through a Berlin-based nongovernmental organization, but has also announced support for new sanctions on security force officials responsible for the Rakhine state violence – even as Germany maintains deep defense ties with Myanmar.
Naypyidaw can sense the West’s divisions and will continue to exploit them to negotiate its way through the crisis with minimal lasting damage.
Myanmar’s foreign policy is now arguably divided into two blocs: relations with those who provide aid without influence, and those who seek investment and are willing to endorse impunity (although Japan straddles this dichotomy the way it has for many years in its special relationship).
The Rohingya crisis has reestablished the pre-transition divisions between East and West along human rights and accountability issues, and has pushed Myanmar back to seeking cover from its major Asian allies and trading partners.
That over-dependence, particularly on China, was a major impetus for the transition to democracy and more diversified foreign relations. The military planned a new era of increased trade and investment with a tightly controlled political opening, but its atrocities in Rakhine state have set back those designs.
Myanmar is instead fast returning to vilified isolation in the West and reliance on opportunistic allies that seek access to the country’s rich natural resources and other commercial opportunities afforded by crisis rather than democratic progress.
David Scott Mathieson is a Yangon-based independent analyst
China debt trap is the new bogeyman to scare other countries in participating in the belt and road initiative. First was that China was exporting communism and its system. Second was China is hell bent on global domination. They all failed to gain traction among sensible people. Now is this debt trap. It is all about western democratic hypocrisy.
No country can accept that a foreign body gains roots in its territory, endangering its sovereignty and social concord. The Rohingya are foreign to Myanmar, to its peoples and culture. But the most serious matter is that they do not want to integrate with the other peoples of Myanmar. The Rohingya are Bengalis, with a Bengali language and sharing the religion of Bengalis. And they concentrate in a region bordering Bangladesh. One can understand the concerns of the Myanmar government, although Rohingyas should be given a chance to merge with the rest of the Myanmar population and thus become truly a part of that nation. If they are not willing to do so, they should indeed leave the country and rejoin their brothers in Bangladesh.
This is what I want to say as a Burmese. Hope rest of the world could understand and stop pressuring our country, we’re trying our best to solve the problem. Thanks
America voices concerns over the sale of Russian arms to Myanmar on supposed worries over rights violation, while ensuring a steady supply of arms to the Saudis, the better to slaughter the Yemenis with. Somehow, they seem perfectly happy to close an eye to those violation of their cherished human rights ideal. That’s an awesome demonstration of being principled, no? Acts like these, as well as their addiction to war, have made the Americans and their allies a bad joke. They have no credibility.
US n UK can sell weapons to Saudi Arabia to massacre Yemeni . Majority of Islamic nations closed eye on tension issues. The West will use double standards on particular nations like Myanmar for their greater interest on Muslims worlds without doubts. In that moments, Myanmar will move forward to east policy slowly I guess. Geographically Myanmar should take advantage Of China and India for the future. Its giant neighbors will help Myanmar to achieve economic goal if internal problems are solved earlier as possible by respective stakeholders
Winnie XiPooh – After independence most Portuguese left Angola and went back to their country. Exactly what I am suggesting the Rohingya should do…
The authors lament at the West lost of Myanmar in this article noted, and it almost sounds like a eulogy. However, it needs to be mentioned that his previous articles were mostly aimed to portray a pro-colonial and pro-islamic albeit a very negative image of Myanmar. It can only concluded a possible failure of the mega funded propaganda machine and collusion between these entities to ‘Kossovise’ mineral-rich Myanmar with complicity of UN and "human rights’ organizations; or is it a lull before the next storm??
US and the west has followed a path as explained in the book Weapons of Mass Migration: Forced Displacement, Coercion and Foreign Policy, Kelly M. Greenhill, US foreign policy consultant, ..coercive engineered migration is a strategy which has been used by governments to gain concessions from other governments. In other words, (western imperialist governments, George Soros and their islamic collaborators) often use (Bengali Muslim – known falsely as rohingya) refugees as weapons in order to exert pressure on other governments (Myanmar) for political ends (to contain China and spread islam)… Although the election of President Donald Trump portends the possibility of a US change of course, with the CIA in clear conflict with the US president on foreign policy, the likelihood is that it will be business as usual for the US military-industrial war machine. (refer to articles by Gearoid O’Colmain, search the web using key words "myanmar gearoid o’colmain american tribune")
In the meantime Myanmar is not waiting for a change in policy of the west. It is going ahead with attempts to neutralization of islamic terrorists and to secure its borders while making friends around the world. As Modern Tokyo Times stated its March 29, 2018 article: "The nation of Myanmar is on the path of consolidating multi-party democracy and is focused on reaching out to fellow Asia Pacific nations and further afield. In recent times, military talks and developments with China, India, and the Russian Federation are strengthening the armed forces. At the same time, economic developments with Australia, China, India, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and others nations, highlight a bright future that awaits Myanmar."
How come the Asian nations , which lend their support to Myanmar while the West is trying to blame and treat us like criminals , become opportunistic ones ? Though Bengali issues in Rakhine state is seen as human right crisis by the West and left-leaning politically right people like you , it is EXISTENTIAL THREAT for Myanmar people . It is not phobia or prejudice , but solid fact that many of the once peaceful Hindu-Buddhist communities in Asia have been islamised over the centuries , starting with the bridgehead merchant class marrying into the communities followed by forced conversion once the demorgraphy favoured the late-comers . Myanmar , with its strictly nationalistic and protective stance , is scapegoated for not giving in to the supposedly Western human right values to let the islamisation process to happen . Hypocrisy of the US double-standardness is exposed bare repeatedly . Not further than few days ago , Saudi’s MBS was praised and persuaded to share its wealth with the supposedly champion of the Free World and guardian of the universal HR by buying its advanced weapons to bomb the Yemenis . Britain’s love affair with Bengali has been long known fact . Its sponsor for pro-Bengali cause in Westminster , Rushanara Ali , is Sylhet-born Benglali herself , no wonder she will fight for her brethrens in faraway lands . So dont you ever consider that the West might have the higher moral ground to lecture the others how to deal with their own internal affairs . The US , UK and France had politicised the Bengali issue in Myanmar at the expense of Myanmar’s image and reputation which would impact negatively on our economy .
Our Oriental neighbours and partners do understand the centuries-long deep-rooted complexity of the issue and support us to deal the problem more constructively on real ground with the least possible damage to Myanmar . Now tell me who are the real friends . This is how the West is losing Myanmar to its Eastern counterparts . Myanmar will direct its foreign policy to benefit her most , the choice for that objective at the moment are China , India , Japan and Asean partners . Democracy and human right values are what most of Myanmar people have been looking forward and , struggled and fought until very recent past , to embrace and diversification of foreign policy is what we aimed for .
However , it does not automatically mean that we should let the demographic invasion of non-integrating Bengali-speaking population into our society happen unchecked . If some Western nations used that parameter , alone , to judge us and threaten us with sanctions or ICC , then we have no choice but to return closer to our old freinds who still treat us with respect and equal , at least on press media , and understand our difficult situation . It is not Myanmar’s fault , but arrogancy , hipocrisy and irrationality of the West make them lost Myanmar .
Is the West already inseparable from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Sunni Islam generally ?
What I’m going to say would sound cynical and therefore many won’t like it. Actually, the Rohingya/Bengali crisis is a great, great blessing in disguise not only for all the so-called indigenous national races of Burma, but even for the ethnic Bamar themselves. The simple reason is that during the past 60 years (since the military rule began in 1962) the entire population of the country has been ruled by successive military dictatorships ruthlessly, but which country from the West has ever cared about it? A couple of wealthy and powerful countries of them with a couple of wealthy Asian countries have even been generously supplying them with weapons and finance. If the Rohingya/Bengali crisis were not there, no one would know and care how ruthless and corrupt the military and political elite are.
"The West" is "concerned" about abuse of Muslims? How touching.
Nuno Cardoso da Silva So Chinese should also leave Tibet ? And Muslims leave Portugal ?e
And those Asian countries are ?
Yes, we don’t want completion from those larger Yankies in the Motherland
"How the West won and lost Myanmar"
We didn’t change but the west did. Actually the west gave words, no action to democracy. But when it comes to Rohingyas (who are actually Bengalis), the west shows strong support and bullism – how should we love such blatant western bullism!! The west has expressed one-sided approach towards us – it doesn’t consider Rakhine people. Knowing Bengalis as Rohingyas, western approach is not for demoracy either but to pursue its interest – natural resources in the region and to contain China. While western world placed sanctions on businesses, its oil companies didn’t need to comply.
Forcing us to accept Bengalis as Rohingyas has back-fired. The west has lost us for sure. But this is only about politics and also a threat of war – i.e. blatant western bullism. It just wants to Kosovanize Rakhine State. Not difficult to understand this.
And give much of Rakhine State to the Bengalis too?
Winnie XiPooh – In Portugal there are about 50,000 Portuguese people who happen to be Muslim. They are part of our society and we wouldn’t dream of seeing them leave our country.
Burma or Myanmar is not one race , there are many tribes connected to south China and Thailand also . The why the anger against Rohingya . May be they came from bengal 100s of years ago . Is the divide simply because they are muslims and not buddhists.Malaysia is muslim , Indonesia is muslim with island spreading eastwards . Brunei is muslim so in Mindanao in Philipines . It is therefore a mix totally between muslims and buddhists in South east asia . Bali remains hindu withi Indonesia . It is not the west or east Rohingyas were forced out and deliberately massacred by burmese army. one must remember Burma was part of British India in the British empire not so long ago . People from India did move in the 19th century under british empire to east africa south africa , even southern america and Fiji in pacific . we cannot force assimilataion or forced them out after they have settled for 100s of years . There should have been a mature and reasonable progression by Myanmar rather than forcing millions . Lets be considerate and have compassion
How ironic!! The intolerant pleading for tolerance.
As written in Koran, Muslims have only one goal in life – promote islam through love jihad, rape, deception, infiltration, conquest, murder etc.
The following are just a sample of a few verses from Koran regarding infidels:
3.28. “Let not the believers take the unbelievers for friends, guardians, and
councilors in preference to the believers.”
9.5 "When opportunity arises, kill the infidels (non believers of Islam) wherever you catch them."
9.5-6: " Kill those who join other gods with God wherever you may find them."
4.76: "Those who believe fight in the cause of God."
8.12: "I will instill terror into the hearts of the Infidels, strike off their heads then,
and strike off from them every fingertip,"
8.39-42: "Say to the Infidels: If they desist from their unbelief, what is now past shall be forgiven them; but if they return to it, they have already before them the doom of the ancients! Fight then against them till strife be at an end, and the religion be all of it God’s."
2.256: "But they who believe, and who fly their country, and fight in the cause of God may hope for God’s mercy: and God is Gracious, Merciful."
Nuno Cardoso da Silva And Han Chinese in Tibet ?
Mustafa Sunnishyte – define "good Muslim".
Answer to Winnie XiPooh: From 1962 to 1988 (the time the nationwide uprising took place) Japanese loan to Burma was more than USD 6 billion. From then on Burma has been heavily relying on China for both military hardwares and finance (in the form of investment). If you want more details, I’ll be quite happy to supply you.
Thein Maung how funny to hear from u
not ALL like that
yeah, so funny because the one who start the abuse to international term was " the WEST"
Nuno Cardoso da Silva So you are saying Han Chinese in E Turkmenistan should become Uighurs ofr leave?
Mustafa Sunnishyte – Integrating with doesn’t mean becoming equal of… English is not the native language of most of us, but one could make an effort to understand what one reads…
Han Min Sein it’s your voice that should be listened to over all others. The West needs to stop butting into other countries affairs.