When Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS for short) meets US President Donald Trump in Washington on Tuesday (March 20), nuclear weapons will be high on the agenda.
MBS made sure of that when he said in a CBS “60 minutes” interview aired on Sunday, but in part released three days earlier, that “Saudi Arabia does not want to acquire any nuclear bomb, but without a doubt, if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible.”
The background is this: Saudi Arabia, to reduce its dependence on oil for electricity generation and free up more oil for exports, wants to build 16 nuclear power plants over the coming 20 to 25 years at a total price tag of over US$80 billion – and the Trump administration wants in on the deal. Negotiations on a US-Saudi nuclear agreement have been ongoing since at least last November. What makes the reported deal a dicey proposition is that the Saudis insist and the US apparently is willing to consider being “flexible” on uranium enrichment and reprocessing of spent reactor fuel, the technological prerequisites of nuclear bomb-making capability.
The Saudis argue that restrictions on its future nuclear activities should be no more stringent than those imposed on Iran by the 2015 nuclear deal. As the country’s Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir put it on February 18 of this year at the Munich Security Conference, “Our objective is we want to have the same rights as other countries.”
The Trump administration for its part is concerned that Russia or China might run away with a Saudi deal if the US plays tough on nuclear proliferation. In early March, US Energy Secretary Rick Perry led a delegation in London to discuss the conditions of the potential Saudi deal, and reportedly “progress was made.”
Beyond economic considerations, of course, Donald Trump – no friend of the Iran nuclear deal and no longer constrained by ex-Secretary of State Tillerson’s opposition to cancelling it – may positively look upon the deterrent value of a deal that, in the words of MBS, will allow the Saudis to “follow suit as soon as possible” if Iran develops a bomb.
What such Trumpian deal-making crucially ignores is the not inconsiderable possibility of blowback: a future Saudi Arabia in turmoil and radical Islamists capable of seizing its nukes. It’s a longstanding US and other powers’ concern when it comes to Pakistan’s nuclear capability.
The Pakistan Arrangement
But whatever MBS and Donald Trump end up agreeing to or may be announcing on Tuesday, there’s a fair chance that the whole thing’s just a dog and pony show, an elaborate sideshow to divert attention from the actual military and strategic arrangements currently in place.
Saudi Arabia, going all the way back to the early 1970s, has been the major financier of the Pakistani nuclear bomb project initiated by former prime minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. In 1998, then-prime minister Nawaz Sharif informed the Saudis prior to the nuclear tests of May 28 and Saudi Arabia softened the UN sanctions imposed on Pakistan with generous aid. In May 1999, Saudi defense minister Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz visited the Kahuta Research Laboratories and he and Sharif were briefed there by German-educated scientist and father of the Pakistani bomb A. Q. Khan on the progress with nuclear devices.
Ever since, it is widely assumed that an agreement exists between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia that Pakistani nukes – long paid for many times over – could be transferred to Saudi Arabia on a moment’s notice in case of a crisis or may indeed already have been transferred on the basis a dual-key arrangement of control of nuclear warheads as long practiced by NATO, under which over 200 B61 US nuclear warheads are stationed in five NATO countries (including at Incirlik airbase in Turkey).
It is highly likely that not only have Pakistani nuclear warheads been stationed in Saudi Arabia for many years, but that the two countries have practiced their deployment and employment. There is the closest of collaboration between the Pakistani and Saudi air forces.
In addition, Saudi Arabia since the 1980s is in possession of Chinese Donfeng 3 (Nato parlance CSS-2) and since 2007 of Donfeng 21 (CSS-5) intermediate range ballistic missiles. Both are nuclear capable; indeed, the older CSS-2 is ONLY of use for nuclear warheads as its circular error probability (CEP) is a large 300m, making it useless for close targeting required for conventional warheads.
Saudi Arabia HAS a nuclear retaliation capability against Iran (and, as they like to say, Israel) and is not in need of trying to develop nukes should the need arise as claimed by MBS.
In fact, Saudi Arabia has none of the infrastructure or materials science capability let alone the scientists to build nukes in a good long time.
Pakistani nukes on Chinese rockets will have to do the trick if needs arise.
So all this conjectures based on assumptions without a shred of proof. Good going Asia times, great journalism or how trump aptly puts it, FAKE NEWS
Indians have the habit of dragging Pakistan into everything, looks like, they have an egoistic problem inherently.
Has the US committed a humungous blunder in allowing pak to acquire nuclear weapons?
I dont really worried Saudi Haven nukes agaist Iran, i have a blieve oneday, Allahs willing all this would be directed to anémies of Islam
KS Chin
When Russia gave India nuclear technology way back in the 1960’s India was not advanced at all. Her first nuke test was in 1974. India did not even know how to make heavy water till decades later, Crygenic engines came even later than that. When China gave Pakistan nuclear technology she was not that advanced either. This article writes of Chinese missiles to launch nuclear bombs . so SA does not need missile tech at this moment.
When Pakistan sold her nuke tech to N. Korea and Iran they hardly had any technicians. Pakistan also sold her nuke to Libya and if Qaddafi hadn’t gone against the US dollar he may have been around to see a nuclearized Libya. As for SA Israel and America will bridge the gap that you claim exists.
The only reason even Russia got the nuke tech was because of the Rosenbergs who stole nuclear, missile and jet tech from the US and gave that to Russia
great
Wafiey Al Aziz
The Jewish ancestry of the Saudi family is reported in an Iraqi Intelligence. There is another source that traces the family tree and to ""Mordakhai bin Ibrahim bin Moshe".Then you have this quote:
"King Faisal Al-Saud at that time could not deny his family’s kindred with the Jews when he declared to the Washington Post on Sept.17, 1969 stating: “We, the Saudi Family, are cousins of the Jews: we entirely disagree with any Arab or Muslim Authority which shows any antagonism to Jews; but we must live together with them in peace. Our country (Arabia) is the fountain head from where the first Jew sprang, and his descendants spread out all over the world.” That was the declaration of King Faisal Al-Saud bin Abdul Aziz!!!"
Not only that but Wahhabism is a Brtish construct that took place in the 18th century. The founder of that movement is also a Jew. Now I understand why the Saudi family allowed Wahabbis to destroy some Islam’s holiest sites in Mecca and Medina
What is your prove?
I am not an expert in demographics but lets do some maths. Population of Saudi Arabia is 32 million. Lets say 50% are working age (thats generous). Thats 16 million. Women dont work and thats a fact. So we have to assume 1-1 so that leaves 8 million adults eligible to work. Now factor in 11% umeployment. That would mean lets say 7 million and two thirds of the employed are employed by the State plus many of them dont even show up for work. How does that add up to the industry in Saudi Arabia? And they want to fire the expats by 2020? They cant even live without maids from Indonesia and Philippines. Now Iran/Pakistan/North korea is totally different as they are borderline self sufficient in technology, manufacturing and military.
quote: "The Saudis argue that restrictions on its future nuclear activities should be no more stringent than those imposed on Iran by the 2015 nuclear deal."
ALL of the 9-11 hijackers were Saudis, from Saudi Arabia, per US government claims / sources.
Has the Saudi government fully addressed or resolved that claim with the US government? I don’t think so.
Why?
Why is it that it’s Iraq and Afghanistan that were invaded and bombed, while Saudi Arabia keeps getting US arms exports valued in the hundreds of billions?
Moreover, Saudi Arabia is using US arms for killing civilians in Yemen.
Shouldn’t the US be bombing Saudi Arabia right now?
Michael Bagala Indeed I am not kidding. No doubt they have the money to build a 500 billion city but u need to see who is actually building it and its not saudis, whether its project mnagers, engineers, architects, contractors, builders or labourers. Its all sourced from expatriates. In fact 30% of the people of Saudi Arabia are expatriates or imported labour. And they do all the work. Sure money can buy all those services. But building a nuclear bomb? You need a pool of advanced engineers and it cannot be expats. Pakistan, North Korea and Iran have an advanced higher education system and R&D that can produce such technology. You need to google Saudi Arabia’s higher institutions and see how many engineers are being churned out and how much R&D is conducted. 85% of engineers in Saudi Arabia are expats. Only in the last few years has Saudis started to invest in R&D.
KS Chin Let me understand you. Saudi Arabia does not have the capability (they have the funds to buy the entire system) engineers (they are building a 500 billion dollar super city with the latest technology) yet Pakistan and North Korea had the capability and technology? are you kidding me?
KS Chin Till your comment there was nothing in mine to indicate it was a ‘conspiracy". All that I stated can be Googled including the admission of King Abdulaziz. Given what I stated is the fact why does that bother you?
I think the last paragraph says it all. Saudis have no capability, whether engineers or manyfacturing to create such sophiticated death weapons
Dont turn this into a Jewish conspiracy. You cant find a reason to demonise Saudis and requires association with Jews to do it? Thats sad
Nonsnese! More likely nukes on US rockets
It is bewildering to note this raw, brutal murderous struggle for dominance and power in Muslim world has been going on the very day Prophet Mohanmad’s dead body was lowered to ground. His relatives started this war of Sunnis Vs Shias! Sad indeed!
If Samudi Arabia is forced to develop nukes and Chinese were to sel rockets, Israel will come out the closet with its own nukes and rockets in the opening! Now how about Egypt?
The Saud family ancestry are claimed to be Jewish and originate from a Jewsh merchant named "Mordakhai bin Ibrahim bin Moshe"
King Salman bin Abdulaziz of Saudi Arabia admitted in March 2015 that all his predecessor Kings, including his father, (King Abdulaziz, King Saud, King Faisal, King Khaled, King Fahd, and King Abdullah ) were Jews. He also admitted that there were many other Jews in the Royal Family, like Naif bin Abduaziz. If the above is right then Israel and America will help Saudi Arabia become a nuclear armed nation. We must seriously look into the Jewish influence in the Middle East especially those who are called "Crypto Jews" and the role they have played in the Ottoman Empire (Donme Jews), establishment of the Saudi royalty, to the Wahhabi movement. If we fail to do that we will be left with an impression that Israel alone abides by the Jewish faith and traditions.