Iran is expanding its sphere of influence toward the Israeli border, possibly leading to explosive results. In mid-February an Iranian drone was shot down by Israel and an Israeli jet was in turn shot down by Syrian anti-aircraft fire.
However, the Iranians and their Hezbollah proxies are not deterred by possible escalation. An agreement signed in November by the United States, Russia and Jordan allows Iran to solidify its presence up to 5 kilometers from the Israeli border. There is no reason to assume pro-Iranian forces will not come even closer if they can.
Israel finds this situation unbearable. It attempted to influence the signatories to the November agreement to keep pro-Iranian forces 60km from the border, but this increasingly seems like a pipe dream. Instead it has adopted a policy seeking a narrower security zone (of unknown depth) into Syria.
It has pursued this using two major means. The first is increasingly tenacious and frequent bombing runs against Syrian, Hezbollah and Iranian targets. The loss of an F-16 jet and the fear of entanglement with the Russians has not restrained these efforts.
More secretly and controversially, Israel has stepped up aid to Syrian rebel forces near the border. In the early stages of the Syrian Civil War, Israel limited involvement to humanitarian aid, evacuating roughly 5,000 wounded warriors to Israeli hospitals. Attempts by leaders of the southern factions of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) to persuade Israel to establish a no-fly zone near the border failed.
As the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, backed by Iran and Russia, gained the upper hand, the zone controlled by the FSA narrowed significantly. In January, the administration of US President Donald Trump closed the Central Intelligence Agency operations center in Amman, the Jordanian capital, which coordinated aid to rebel organizations in southern Syria. This terminated the already inadequate aid the US was providing to FSA troops in this sector.
During the past few weeks reports have emerged that Israel is upping its support to militias in the region. The Israeli government, by various means, is providing elements affiliated with the FSA with weapons, ammunition and money to purchase weapons on the black market. Support is probably also extended to more “moderate” jihadist groups, although neither side will admit it.
The Israeli government is providing elements affiliated with the Free Syrian Army with weapons, ammunition and money to purchase weapons on the black market. Support is probably also extended to more ‘moderate’ jihadist groups, although neither side will admit it
As a result, over the past six months the area has become a de facto Israeli buffer zone. The spokesman for the Fursan al-Joulan militia (not affiliated with the FSA) said: “Israel stood by our side in a heroic way. We wouldn’t have survived without Israel’s assistance.”
Israel has been the protector of some of these communities diplomatically as well as militarily. It has participated in negotiating reconciliation between the Assad government and some local militias. The goal of these agreements is to allow militias to continue to control their territory, while attaining the Assad regime’s seal of approval. By attaining deals of this sort, Israel hopes to bolster the Assad regime and wean it off its dependence on Iran. After all, Israel enjoyed a stable border with Syria in the past and hopes to do so again in the future.
Israel has also developed direct ties with the residents of the area, assisting in the construction of schools and hospitals. Local councils and community notables have participated in distributing Israeli rice, milk, flour and other products still in their original Israeli packaging. While initially weary of Israeli involvement, locals are warming up to it, mostly because no one else will support them.
The extent of Israeli commitment to militias and communities in the area places it on the horns of a painful dilemma. The FSA cannot hold off pro-Iranian forces independently. Upholding a buffer zone in western Syria will likely require ever-escalating Israeli logistical support, air power and elite-unit presence. In the long run if it determines that safeguarding its allies is a central Israeli interest, it may be tempted to send in an undisguised military presence to signal to Iran and Hezbollah that it means business.
On the other hand, the Israeli government is well aware of the pitfalls of involvement in western Syria. In the early days of the Lebanese Civil War (1975-1990), Israel opened its border to its Maronite Christian allies and provided them with logistical support, arms, an outlet for their goods and humanitarian aid. Then-prime minister Menachem Begin felt it was Israel’s moral duty to protect the Christians, whom he believed were being persecuted by the Palestinians as the Jews were persecuted by the Nazis.
After the 1982 Lebanon War, Israel set up a “security zone” consisting of roughly 10% of Lebanon in areas abutting its northern frontier to keep the Palestine Liberation Organization away and provide support for its proxy the Christian Southern Lebanon Army (SLA). As the PLO lost power and was replaced by the Iranian-sponsored Hezbollah, the SLA was hard pressed to hold its own, and Israel stationed large numbers of troops in the area.
In 1997 the Israeli military experienced a tragic helicopter crash over Lebanon, killing 73 soldiers. Public opinion turned sharply against the occupation of southern Lebanon. Three years later, Israel withdrew unilaterally, leaving its allies to fend for themselves. The SLA soon collapsed, with most officers and administration officials fleeing to Israel. Individuals affiliated with the SLA were arrested and, in some cases, tortured to death by Hezbollah.
Israel’s former allies were resentful. One SLA soldier expressed the feelings of many when he said: “Israel betrayed us.…We helped them in our land. For 25 years we were with her.”
With this in mind, Israel now faces an unappetizing dilemma. It can abandon its allies to a horrible fate and watch Iran take over the Syrian-Israeli border. Alternatively, it can launch, deja vu and all, a horrific proxy war that will prolong misery for everyone.
As any Middle East watcher knows, in this region there are few good choices and fewer positive outcomes.
With india aggrasion ti Pakistan we shall sinking india economic.
History, as swiss cheese.
Up up Israel, down down Iran and its terrorist proxies, including the Russia the godless nation
According to Oded Yinon Israel plans to expand. After confiscating the Golan Heights from Syria in 1967 Israel’s plan to expand became clear by 1982 Oded Yinon, a former advisor to Ariel Sharon, a former senior official with the Israeli Foreign Ministry and journalist for Jerusalem Post, wrote an article published in February 1982 in the Hebrew journal Kivunim ("Directions") entitled ‘A Strategy for Israel in the 1980s’.
It has influenced American political thought on a "greater Israel".It is that context America has been getting involved in every war, dispute and social upheaval in the Middle East with speculations that Israel and the US help cause these problems in order to keep America actively engaged in the Middle East.
I have no doubt that Israel plans to annex large chunks of Syria, some of Iraq, maybe all of Lebanon with the help of America and using the chaos caused by the Kurds in achieving their homeland.
Balfour is laughing his head off in his grave. His dream finally came true.
Israel was created not to have peace, but a punishment by the wily English to both Sunnis and Yehud. A brilliant move to break the 1300 old Sunni muscle / Jewish finance cartel that had terrorized Christians by blocking East West Silk Road trade and financing European wars.
Balfour’s divide and rule silver bullet split yehud from their only friends in history, the Sunnis. By creating competing land claims made them enemies to each other to fight to the finish.
Balfour was a genius, an evil one. He won where Hitler failed – rid Europe of Jews while earning their gratitude. Balfour knew that sooner of later the much larger Sunnis will get the Jews – look ma no Jewish blood on my hands.
Since creation of Israel Europe is largely jew-free, and there has been no inter-Christian war in Europe !!! You can not beat that can you? Balfour, simply brilliant you bastard.
This article has some factual errors.
1). That Iran and Hezbollah are making the decisions and not the Syrian government.
2) That the FSA is a viable force.
3) That the local Druze population will ever embrace Israel.
Israel needs to learn to live peacefully with it’s neighbors, now more than ever, since it no longer has a military advantage.
Well said Abbas sahab
Carry on dreaming
Ever since their Primogenitor Judah sold his brother the Good Joseph into slavery, only to see him rise to the Mastery of Egypt, the short term tactical brilliance of the Tribe of Judah is far exceeded by its blindness in long term strategy onwards to a march from death to death.
While Christianity and Islam have a well developed notion of the “Hereafter”, a euphemism for the long term future, hence planning for it, Judahism has no such concept. The Tribe can think only of the present, living for the day and taking advantage of the present only has gotten the Tribe into problem with their neighbours for 4,000 years and counting.
Half of the citizens of Israel have a foreign passport. Once the going goes hot, these mostly European Jews will show a clean pair of heels, leaving the poor Semitic Jews to their fate against their Arab cousins the poor Palestinians. The poor be damned, they always lose – they do not contribute to the Corprate Capitalist balance sheet.
Lament for a people. Time to extend the wailing wall by miles each end.