When the host country openly patronizes a Track 2 – or ‘backchannel’ – event, it becomes Track 1.5. The conference in Moscow on Monday under the rubric ‘Russia in the Middle East: Playing on Every Field,’ seemed firmly in this category.
However, just as the event was about to begin, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, joined Russia’s, Sergey Lavrov, on the podium, raising matters to the level Track 1.
Nonetheless, Turkey’s absence must be noted. The backdrop is the US-Turkish “thaw” following a two-day visit to Ankara last weekend by the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. The first authoritative comments by the Trump administration regarding Tillerson’s talks came from US Defence Secretary James Mattis, who said on Saturday:
“We concur with Turkey on the need for locals taking control of the liberated areas [in Syria], and we’re going to work with Turkey on the locals taking control, and with Turkey on every other irritant, or diversion or distraction, or every area. We have many areas of absolute concurrence, too. Remember that, they are an ally. We work with them… So this is not an all-one-way issue, but there are significant issues that the Secretary of State and his foreign minister counterpart agreed that we would work through… I can’t tell you that we’ve resolved them all. That means we’re going to work through them. We’re committed to them. That’s where we’re going.”
Mattis was donning a diplomatic hat in projecting such an optimistic assessment. Tillerson’s talks in Ankara were wide-ranging and there were exchanges on creating and jointly managing a zone of influence in northern Syria. But for Turkey, the vacation of the region to the west of the Euphrates by US-backed Kurdish militias is a non-negotiable demand. The Pentagon will be hard-pressed to jettison its alliance with those militias.
The US-Turkey reconciliation process will not be easy. But then again, it does not suit either side to allow the discussions to reach a dead end anytime soon. Turkey’s operation in Afrin is not going well and that puts future operations in doubt – which, in turn, gives time and space for both Ankara and Washington to negotiate. And for the US, while the Kurds may be regarded as useful (perhaps irreplaceable) footsoldiers, the resuscitation of an alliance with Turkey could be a game changer.
Erdogan has made an extra effort in recent weeks to mend ties with Germany, signaling that Turkey does not want isolation from the West
Washington senses that Turkish President Recep Erdogan is groping for a way forward. He has made an extra effort in recent weeks to mend ties with Germany, signaling that Turkey does not want isolation from the West. Make no mistake that Washington is greatly experienced in leveraging Turkish predicaments. Washington has shown time and again that it has a way of getting things done with Ankara, its time-tested cold war ally. Mattis’ optimism reflects that.
The big question is how the Russian-Iranian alliance will respond to a potential US-Turkey entente in northern Syria. Indeed, it will be a major setback for Moscow and Tehran if Ankara reverts to coordinating with the US. Events on the ground in recent weeks should leave Moscow in no doubt that eliminating the Russian presence in Eastern Mediterranean is as much a priority for the Pentagon as rolling back Iranian influence in Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin telephoned Erdogan on Monday to discuss Syria.
Afrin may seem the immediate focal point, but the various protagonists are attempting to create new facts on the ground. Russia and Iran have a congruence of interests in opposing the expansion of the US presence in northern Syria. (Afrin is the gateway to Idlib, which is adjacent to the coastal province of Latakia, where the Russian bases are located.)
Lavrov on Monday warned today that the US should not play with fire. In a hard-hitting speech at the Moscow conference, he alleged that the US is using the Kurds as a proxy and also covertly encouraging extremist groups to “disintegrate Syria”. Meanwhile, the Tass news agency quoted Zarif as stressing to Lavrov that the flow of events “demonstrates the depth of strategic relations between Iran and Russia, which have been playing a very important role in maintaining security and stability in our region.”
However, neither Moscow nor Tehran has voiced any criticism of Turkey. They seem reasonably confident that Turkish-American reconciliation is improbable, since Syria is only the tip of the iceberg against which mutual trust between the two NATO allies crashed in the aftermath of a failed coup attempt against Erdogan in July 2016.
The Russian-Iranian strategy will be to keep Turkey constructively engaged even as Ankara is involved in back-to-back negotiations with Washington beginning in the first half of March. Zarif disclosed in Moscow that he and his Russian and Turkish counterparts propose to meet in Astana in a fortnight to prepare the ground for a trilateral summit meeting of the three presidents in Istanbul regarding Syria.
USA Geopolitical strategies in EurAsia is dependent of a friendly alliance with Turkey. The US plans for Balkanization of Syria and the Kurdish issues, totally crashes with President Erdogan strategies. It looks like President Erdogan and the nationalist is drumming up a more anti-American sentiment in the Turkish population. The US has not been helpful to assist Turkey in improving EU relations.
Anyway, in the Middle East there is a lot of turmoil and uncertainty, so there can be a lot of surprises. Who knows what will happen if there become turmoil in Saudi Arabia? Qatar-UAE conflict? Lebanon? Yemen? Iran conflict with the Arab monarchies and the monarchies cozy relations “un-holly” relations with Israel. Netanyahu political future and the risk for an even more right wing Prime Minister in Israel?
Sir,Washington is experienced in leveraging Turkish predicaments to her advantage! Turkey’s strategic location to Black sea, Kurdish national interest, Afrins proximity to Lanaker port used by Russian and Syrian future and dictates of Israeli’s policy on USA playing a major diplomatic maneuvers by US on Turkey !
A good deal of the banking system in the US and in Europe are controlled or owned by Jews.
In 2017 politically America has changed. 8% of Congress are Jewish. 6% of Congress hold dual citizenship with Isael. Almost every Federal department & agency is either headed by a Jew or has a strong Jewish presence. That includes the Federal Reserve. No other nation is under such a strong hold by the Jewish community outside of Israel. Wherever America’s voice is heard so is Israel and that includes the UNSC.
We give Israel more foreign aid than any other nation on the planet. That means a lot since Jews account for only 2% of America’s population. On an yearly basis each Israeli gets more aid from Washington DC than the average American. Compare this relationship with Turkey. Outside of being a NATO member Turkey has no hold on DC. none whatsover.
But it does not stop there. Jews fully control our Media, Hollywood and are a major presence in Silicon valley. They are a dominant voice among the faculty of the best universities in America. Their power in America is such that it has never been this powerful in their 3500 year history… and they have finally got their homeland back.
Under these circumstances the American Jewish community will excercise every bit of that power to get what they want including aA temperory truce with Turkey.
Long before the arrival of ISIS Turkey was battling the Kurds while America stood by. Turkey was on her own in protecting her soverignity. This was true before ISIS, during ISIS when US armed Kurds who then fought Turkish soldiers with better weapons while taking on ISIS, and it is still true as both America and Israel push for Kurdistan. Turkey is aware that she will lose a good chunk of her land when Kurdistan is formed. In addition Israel will also expand cannibalizing lands from Syria and Iraq.
But what is most obvious to Turkey and the UN is America’s unfailing committment to Israel. That all weather committment includes going to war with Russia, China, Iran or any nation to protect and safeguard Israel. That is an unshakeable truth about the Middle East.
We no longer are as dependent on OPEC oil to validate America’s growing presence in the Middle East, and outside oil there is no other intrinsic reason for the US presence in the Middle East except… the existence and expansion of Israel.
My personal take on Israel is that she is the fina imperial projection of Europe on a non European landmass, maintained by military force. After the collapse of the Colonial Empires, Israel remains that final European ‘imperial’ presence. Everywhere else with the US generally falls under diplomacy and Commerce.
Sooner or later the U.S administration will have to reconcile with Turkey. Let us not forget, U.S nukes are stored in Turkey; a NATO alliance member with the second largest troops after the U.S. The longer the two take to reconcile their differences, Russia gains a stronger foothold in the region. This is what Russia wants, the marriage between the U.S and Turkey to fall apart.