In Doha, his face is on bumper stickers. In Mogadishu, it looms on giant posters. Nowadays, Turkish President Recip Tayyip Erdogan enjoys great popularity in certain countries in the Middle East and Africa.
Remarkably, too, he has achieved this while at the same time managing an unprecedented escalation in the number and size of his country’s overseas military bases.
On the Arabian Sea, his country’s flag flutters on warships, and by the Persian Gulf, it flies from tank turrets.
Turkish troops are now in Qatar and Somalia, while Turkish navy vessels patrol the Gulf of Aden. Recent statements by leading figures in Sudan and Djibouti have also caused speculation that these countries, too, may soon play host to soldiers sent by Ankara.
Turkey stresses that it has only peaceful intentions behind this buildup. Yet in a region that has not seen such deployments since Turkey’s predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, ruled much of the Middle East, such a return is not always welcome.
“The Arab world will not be led from Tehran and Ankara,” United Arab Emirates (UAE) Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash tweeted at the end of last year. He had earlier warned against the “surrounding regional ambitions” of Iran and Turkey.
For some, indeed, these new Turkish moves bring with them concerns of “neo-Ottoman” encirclement.
Yet, others argue, much of this deployment follows a more long-standing Turkish search for new markets in the Gulf and Africa – although this economy-driven expansion is now going in parallel with new opportunities created by recent regional fractures and global changes.
“There is a new world now,” said Aybars Gorgulu, research director at the Center for Public Policy and Democracy Studies (PODEM) in Istanbul. “In this environment, Turkey is taking its own initiatives, becoming more active and more present.”
Crisis and opportunity
Concerns over Turkish intentions have been growing in some capitals after a string of moves by Ankara.
First, when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt – known as the Arab Quartet – imposed a blockade of their Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) partner Qatar back in June 2017, Ankara quickly stepped up to defend Doha.
Fast-tracked by the Turkish parliament, a force of around 3,000 troops is currently being built up at the Tariq bin Ziyad base, south of the Qatari capital, along with naval and air units.
Meanwhile, west of the Arabian Peninsula, in Somalia, some 200 Turkish soldiers have been deployed to a new US$50 million camp in Mogadishu. There, they are training some 10,000 Somali troops in the fight against the jihadist Al-Shabaab group.
Further north, and right at the entrance to the Red Sea, last December, Djibouti’s ambassador to Turkey, Aden Abdillahi, said that “possible steps from Turkey to build a military base in the country would be welcomed.” Turkish naval vessels engaged in international anti-piracy work are already based there, along with forces from France, the US, the UK, China, and even Japan.
That same month, Erdogan was also in Sudan, a visit that ended with an agreement for Turkey to construct a port with Qatari financing on Suakin Island, an old Ottoman-era naval base.
Sudanese Foreign Minister Ibrahim Ghandour told reporters at the time that the two countries had agreed “to build a dock to maintain civilian and military vessels.”
The Turkish president later denied any specific military interest in the island, but a number of military and civilian cooperation agreements were signed between the two countries.
The March of the Mehter?
Statements by President Erdogan at home have not helped ease concerns in Cairo, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi and Bahrain.
On February 10, the Turkish leader declared that the Turkish Republic was “a continuation of the Ottomans,” and that while borders and forms of government might have changed, “the essence is the same, the soul is the same, even many institutions are the same.”
Yet for all the talk of Ottoman revival, there may be more practical concerns behind these recent moves.
“In Qatar,” said Noha Aboueldehab, visiting fellow at Brookings Doha Center, “I’m sure Turkey has been looking at this crisis as an opportunity. We can see this in the major number of business deals Turkey is making with Qatar.”
Indeed, late last year, Qatar green-lighted some US$19 billion in investment in Turkey for 2018, after investing around US$18 billion in 2017.
At the same time, the blockade has meant the shutting down of Qatar’s traditional sources of imports – such as Saudi Arabia. Turkish companies have rushed to fill the gap, with supermarket shelves in Doha now full of Turkish produce. Meanwhile, construction contracts in the fast-growing Qatari economy have been gratefully handed out to Turkish companies.
Somalia, meanwhile, has long been close with Turkey, which has provided it with much humanitarian aid in recent years, along with investment in basic infrastructure.
“Turkey sees Somalia as a ‘brother state,’” said Gorgulu, “a place with a special tie. Turkey has a growing interest there in capacity building and aid – the military presence is really largely symbolic.”
Engagement with Somalia was one outcome of an enhanced Turkish Africa policy, as the country looked for new markets for its products after the global economic meltdown in 2007-08. This went along with increasingly fraught relations between Turkey and its main overseas market, Europe.
Deployments in Sudan or Djibouti might also be largely symbolic, Gorgulu argues, if they indeed ever occur.
“Turkey is not so rich and is already fighting in Syria, so there’s little enthusiasm for sending even more troops abroad. Turkey just doesn’t have that global capacity.”
Yet within the Arab Quartet states, in particular, suspicions remain. A recent Twitter war between the UAE foreign minister and the Turkish president over allegations of betrayal and massacre during the Siege of Medina in World War I illustrates how sensitive the Ottoman past remains.
The UAE foreign minister, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al Nahyan, began the spat by retweeting a claim that Ottoman soldiers had looted the city – now in Saudi Arabia – and abducted its residents. “These are Erdogan’s ancestors,” he tweeted.
The Turkish president responded that the UAE foreign minister had been “spoiled with petrol and spoiled with money.”
The spat still continues, too, with Ankara municipality recently renaming the street of the UAE Embassy after the Ottoman commander in Medina during the controversial 1916-1919 siege.
The conditions are not feasible for Turkey to expand. Ottoman slogans are meant for domestic consumption amongst the base. Embracing Ottoman legacy and identity is meant to counter the knee jerk reaction by the Kemalists in the post republic years and to get European nations to treat Turkey more equitably. Other than that, there is a growing sense of ‘revive the monarchy’ amongst many right wing groups across the globe, as a counter to neo-liberal ideas. The Ottoman empire will not be resurrected by the ballot box, nor by the current nation of Turkey, it’s just not ready for it, between such a polarized populace.
Lying at the very gates of Europe and Asia Turkey’s fate has been determined by both. Even before the (French/British) Sykes/Picot agreement of 1916 the fate of the Ottoman Empire was determined. Due to British encouragement the Armenian genocide was carried out by the Donme Jews of the Ottoman Empire.
Today they are known as "Crypto Jews" (Jews who pretend to follow another faith). It is probable that the British had a hand in the "Assyrian genocide" which took place around the time of the Armenian genocide. 2 million Armenians and close to 1 million Assyrians were killed. The perpetrators of the Assyrian genocide remain unknown.
These were some of the acts created by Europeans that led to the collapse of the Ottoman Empire which in its six centuries of governance the Middle Eastern region flourished. Its collapse which was facilitated by both the English and the French was to help create a homeland for the European jews.
I believe that the modern lines of the Middle East were deliberately drawn to cause instability in order to impose a Jewish homeland upon an Arab world. Only then does it makes sense why the Kurdish population never got a homeland by European powers who knew better.
Turkey also inherits the Byzantine Empire where Constantinople’s impregnable Theodosian walls were comprised by treachery when its Jewish population let in the Ottoman invaders.
Today Turkey is battling the formation of Kurdistan which requires carving out a good section of Turkey in order to realize it. The Kurds are supported by America and Israel. At the same time Turkey is a vital member of NATO where her contribution in military personnel is only second to the US.
THE TURKS ARE COMING. THE EASTERN NATIONS ARE RISING. THE WEST CAN ONLY LOOK AND CRY AS THEY SLOWLY ENTER THE EUROPEAN DARK AGES AGAIN. ITS BEAUTIFUL TO WATCH, AS A STRONG TURKEY MEANS A STRONG MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA THAT WESTERNERS CAN NO LONGER RAPE AND PILLAGE. A STRNGER TURKEY ALSO MEANS A STRONGER ASIA & CENTRAL ASIA.
Lol. Look into George Freidman’s predictions about turkey. They might scare you. The Turks are Reviving The Ottoman Empire & geopolitical experts are saying this will be very successful.
Lol. Look into George Freidman’s predictions about turkey. They might scare you. The Turks are Reviving The Ottoman Empire & geopolitical experts are saying this will be very successful.
Re-establishing the Ottoman dynasty would first require that a descendent of the House of Osman be proclaimed as King. I do not think the politicians amongst the AKP nor amongst the CHP would be willing to do that. A change of that order would first require that democracy fails and that the populace at large are willing to make that change — which doesn’t appear to be the case outside of Anatolia. Turkey is stuck in a bad neighbourhood, certain nations will do everything in their capacity to ensure, that a major frontline NATO nation such as Turkey does not succeed and gets bogged down in regional conflict. In such an environment, there are very dim chances of an assertive Ottoman revival on the cards succeeding.
Ortan Empu
I took your advice and read his opinion on America, Japan, Turkey and Poland. the way I see it his conclusions are based on few generalities and by that are incomplete.
erdogan is the antichrist. they will recreate the office of the caliphate. this will be the one who was wounded in the head but recovered. see rev. 13:3….start singing the word "aarrhh-mahhh-ged-donn" to the hallelujah chorus…IT’S HAPPENING!!!
Are you nuts? I understand the anti-christ to be an evil person out to destroy God’s message. Erdogan, as an a practising Muslim, furthers God’s message. So how can he be an anti-Christ is beyound me. Unless of course you do not consider Muslims as being followers of God. And yes, Muslims believe in Jesus(peace be upon him) as a prophet of God.
Ismail Moola The Far Right fringes of Evangelical Christianity in the US have an antagonistic relationship with Islam. To understand where they are coming from on their antichrist spiel, here is a good writeup, that explains and refutes their position: https://amuslimconvertoncemore.blogspot.in/2012/10/myths-of-muslim-anti-christ.html Historically Lutherns and their descendents have been calling the Pope and the Catholic Church the anti-christ (not kidding — you can research this). Lately they have started to treat Islam with an equal if not greater disdain, courtesy of theirmessianic evengelical pastors.
Ismail Moola hello, not nuts…just a student of bible prophecy…here are some links you might read to better inform yourself of the subject: https://www.gotquestions.org/unholy-trinity.html
https://www.gotquestions.org/what-is-the-antichrist.html
https://www.gotquestions.org/antichrist.html
gotquestions is a conservative evangelical site, but not really very radical…
* here’s a link to a report you will find interesting also:
http://www.wnd.com/2017/04/expert-turkeys-president-dreams-of-new-ottoman-empire/
* I think Erdogan is the antichrist because he has recently stepped out as the main leader opposing Israel. He is putting together a ten nation confederacy to oppose Israel with military force. The scriptures plainly teach that a huge army will sweep down from the north to invade Israel, see article: https://www.jashow.org/articles/prophecy/what-nations-will-be-involved-in-the-military-attack-against-israel-predicted-in-ezekiel-38/
* Turkey and Russia will take the lead in this terrible war. Erdogan and Putin had come together in opposition to the Israeli’s taking Jerusalem as their capital. The nations mentioned as coming together have also joined them. Slowly but surely, the pieces of the puzzle are coming together. God said he will make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all the nations (Zechariah 12:1-9).
* If you do not have a bible, go to BibleGateway.com for a translation in your own language if you are from Turkey or Iran and would prefer. On the GotQuestions.org website, do a search for Armageddon. You will be surprised at how many things are coming into place that Bible prophecy predicts. There will soon be a peace treaty that divides Jerusalem. This will end badly. This provokes the invasion from the north and the second coming of Jesus Christ.
* Bible prophecy and its stunningly accurate fulfillment is one of the biggest proofs of Christianity.
* p.s…I did look at your article, and yes, the antichrist may be from Syria. Wait and see, this is all happening very quickly…
copy of reply to Ismail: here are some links you might read to better inform yourself of the subject:
https://www.gotquestions.org/unholy-trinity.html
https://www.gotquestions.org/what-is-the-antichrist.html
https://www.gotquestions.org/antichrist.html
gotquestions is a conservative evangelical site, but not really very radical…
* here’s a link to a report you will find interesting also:
http://www.wnd.com/2017/04/expert-turkeys-president-dreams-of-new-ottoman-empire/
* I think Erdogan is the antichrist because he has recently stepped out as the main leader opposing Israel. He is putting together a ten nation confederacy to oppose Israel with military force. The scriptures plainly teach that a huge army will sweep down from the north to invade Israel, see article: https://www.jashow.org/articles/prophecy/what-nations-will-be-involved-in-the-military-attack-against-israel-predicted-in-ezekiel-38/
* Turkey and Russia will take the lead in this terrible war. Erdogan and Putin had come together in opposition to the Israeli’s taking Jerusalem as their capital. The nations mentioned as coming together have also joined them. Slowly but surely, the pieces of the puzzle are coming together. God said he will make Jerusalem a burdensome stone for all the nations (Zechariah 12:1-9).
* If you do not have a bible, go to BibleGateway.com for a translation in your own language if you are from Turkey or Iran and would prefer. On the GotQuestions.org website, do a search for Armageddon. You will be surprised at how many things are coming into place that Bible prophecy predicts. There will soon be a peace treaty that divides Jerusalem. This will end badly. This provokes the invasion from the north and the second coming of Jesus Christ.
* Bible prophecy and its stunningly accurate fulfillment is one of the biggest proofs of Christianity.
* p.s…I did look at your article, and yes, the antichrist may be from Syria. Wait and see, this is all happening very quickly…
Amin Patel I don’t follow the religious tensions between various sects, but I do follow the news. As far as I can tell Muslims, whether peaceful or not, can’t be trusted. It looks to me like their point of view, The Umma, means they will always segregate themselves from non-Muslims (infidels I believe they are called), so they resist assimilation when moving to a different country that is not Muslim dominated. Since they were created in the 6th century and through violence expanded their dominance and now are dominant in 57 countries, I’d say the evidence is pretty clear, as far as they are concerned they need and intend to rule the world.
looks like some overzealous editor at FB deleted my comments & your reply…they do that…anyhow, take a look at the references I sent, you may be surprised at what you find there….if you want to debate further, send me an email address, FB can’t delete that
looks like some overzealous editor at FB deleted my comments & your reply…they do that…anyhow, take a look at the references I sent, you may be surprised at what you find there….if you want to debate further, send me an email address, FB can’t delete that
Art Laramee: Really? ‘Assimilation’ talk on a discussion thread about Turkey on “Asia Times”. MAGA!
I agree with you.only a fool will defend islam
Its not the Americans hasn’t already betrayed the Kurds once before with Saddam. They’re just disposable tools to be used.
The more "sand niggers" in the middle east keep fighting each other, the better it is for the US mil industrial complex.