Israel has been bombing targets within Syria with impunity since the country descended into a hellish civil war in 2011. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) has executed bombing runs throughout the region, even as far away as Sudan without suffering consequences for decades. It has taken its aerial superiority for granted and built its strategy on it. That made the events of Saturday, Feb. 10, 2018, all the more shocking for Israel.
An Iranian drone entered Israeli aerospace and was destroyed. Israel attacked the site from which the drone was launched. An Israeli F-16 fighter was shot down by anti-air missiles. The pilot and navigator parachuted (both survived but were injured) and Israel responded with its usual lack of subtlety, bombing targets in Syria and possibly killing Iranian soldiers.
Pro-Iranian militia Hezbollah hailed the downing of the aircraft as the beginning of “a new strategic phase” that puts an end to the violation of Syrian territories. Hezbollah is known for hyperbolic rhetoric, but this time they may have a point. The last time an Israeli fighter was shot down during an operation was in Lebanon in 1983, when the Middle East was a completely different place.
This latest incident may be a harbinger of a new strategic era in the Levant. The F-16 was probably shot down by a Russian made SA-5 Gammon medium-to-high altitude surface-to-air missile. Syria uses the missiles to cover an area in which Russian troops operate in support of the Assad regime.
In the past, the IAF had bombed the same area in order to interdict the supply of advanced arms and munitions to the Hezbollah militia, a hardened enemy of Israel against which it has fought several military campaigns in the past. In this iteration of attacks, the target was more sensitive. The office of the Israeli military spokesman released photographs of what it claims is a Syrian air-base in the Homs governate near the village of Tiyas utilized by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to transfer arms to Hezbollah.
With one or two exceptions, Israel had generally managed to avoid direct clashes with Iran and the loss of aircraft through a deft and complex strategy, involving three planks.
First, (though it officially denies this) it provided logistical support to rebel groups near the Israeli border in order to facilitate their ability to hold off Hezbollah and Iranian encroachment. Second, it developed a strategic understanding with Russia to obtain its cooperation in reigning in Iranian influence in the western part of Syria. Finally, when all else failed used its air-force to send a clear message that it would not tolerate the expansion of Iranian influence in proximity to Israel’s borders.
This generally successful strategy has since collapsed. As the position of anti-government rebels in Syria deteriorated, the US and Russia reached an agreement in November (without direct Israeli involvement) on limiting non-Syrian forces in the country. While ostensibly limiting Iranian influence near the Israeli border, it actually gave carte blanche to Iranian influence up to 20 km from the Israeli border and did not provide any clear mechanism for preventing Hezbollah or the Iranian Revolutionary Guard for coming closer. It was yet another case of Putin outsmarting the Trump Administration (or worse).
Israeli officials continue to pretend that matters in Syria are under control, as the military referred to the operation as a “complete operational success.” However, they are either kidding the public or themselves.
Since the base Israel attacked is outside of the zone covered in the agreement, it is no surprise that Syria and Russia acted more aggressively to frustrate Israeli freedom of action. Putin is reported to have warned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to avoid taking any steps that would further escalate the conflict.
The Russian Foreign Ministry chastised Israel, warning that it is “absolutely unacceptable to create threats to the lives and security of Russian servicemen.” The Russian Federation has no interest in an Israeli-Iranian confrontation, but in practice, they are providing a military and diplomatic umbrella for the deepening of Iranian influence in Syria.
For students of Israeli military history, these developments echo some of the darkest moments in its strategic past. In 1967 Israel won a historic military victory over the Arab states facilitated by complete air superiority.
The Soviet Union at that time supported Egypt and to avoid a recurrence, provided its ally with advanced anti-aircraft missiles, alongside crews to operate them. The missile sites covered the devastating Egyptian invasion of Sinai in 1973 and neutralized the advantage of the IAF. In the war, Israel lost 102 out of 383 operational aircraft and was forced to rely on an emergency US resupply to keep its air-force operational. It struggled to win the war and its strategic standing plummeted as a result.
If and when an open conflict between Iran and Israel commences, it would appear that the main Israeli advantage has been dulled. The war will likely involve Hezbollah firing barrages of missiles at Israeli population centers, daring the Israeli military to neutralize fire by sending ground forces into entrenched and booby-trapped positions primarily located underground.
Israel has significant anti-missile capabilities, but they are likely to be overwhelmed by Hezbollah’s reported reserve of over 100,000 missiles. If forced to counter Hezbollah and the Revolutionary Guard by sending troops into enemy territory with limited ground support, the results could be gruesome for Israel which has become a society averse to casualties and vulnerable to the kidnapping of soldiers.
The results would probably be even more gruesome for civilians in Lebanon and Syria who will be on the receiving end of the inevitable escalation of Israeli of military force. Like most people and actors, Israel is always most destructive when it feels insecure. It could also see Russia and the US dragged into a regional conflict contrary to their interests. Indeed, the changing military balance in Syria is bad news for everyone but Iran.
" ( A ) Israel has been bombing targets within Syria with impunity since the country descended into a ( B ) hellish civil war in 2011"
A: True
B: Civil war ?
Good analysis by Ben-Ephraim. I wonder whether this is payback by Russia for the recent drone and manpad attack on their aircrafts. I wouldn’t put it past them. Both, Israel and Iran should not escalate the situation — it is not worth it. This would not be of benefit to anyone. Perhaps Israel and the U.S might want to reduce their support for Kurdish independence, and make peace with Turkey, lest all three ‘allies’, find themselves outmaneuvered by the man in the Kremlin — which at this rate appears to be inevitable.
If this lessens the state terrorism from Israel which has inflicted untold suffering in the region, it is very good news.
Obviously, a bully with overblown ego become apprehensive once you started fighting back.
AT in Israeli cabinet writes this,
This plane was reportedly shot down by a missile from an S-200 system, which is actually obsolescent and not the more modern S-300 or the state-of-the-art S-400 which are a bigger threat to warplanes. On the other hand, Israel possesses anti-radiation missiles which can home in on air defense radar and destroy it. Look for these to be used soon.
The only language the coward Tribe of Judah understands is force.
When faced with superior power like the Germans, it is slaughtered like a lamb. But faced with unarmed Palestinians it become a lion.
So in brave Hezbollah it has met its Nemesis. The upper half of Tribe has already acquired foreign passports, and in the next war it will run to pollute our neighborhoods leaving the hapless half to be slaughtered like a lamb. That is the 4,000 year history of the Tribe.
I guess more Zionist fighters was shot down, but this one is obviously uncovered by the Zionist regime and discovered by many witness. Seems like the Syrian or the rebels was found the weaknesses of Zionist and they got the answer.
The piece is largely on point except for the its end line, I believe the changing stategic situation in Syria is good for every one because Jihaidist-controlled Syria is bad fdr every one.
The sooner Israel is nuetralized the sooner lasting peace can occur. Turkey and Israel look the bad guys there so why not let others take control
Shooting down of F-16 portends an ominous sign to IAF.it is the age of ultra-modern guided missile keeping in mind Satan-2 or S–40. A sense of realisation will dawn upon IAF that they are vulnerable to sophisticated missile and that will create psychological fear who is averse to loose in proportion to infliction.
Israel gets F16 for free,
After seven years of war it is clear the US goal of regime change in Syria has failed, the war is winding down and the downing of Israeli F16s fighters points the Syrians and their allies are feeling more confident. the US may grap east of Auphrates river for the Kurds, but toppling Assad is history.
Wow! Israel wanted to bomb Iran and now Israel is struggling to fight Iran and it’s proxies on it’s own borders. Interesting.
That picture of a downed Jet appeared on one of the articles in the "Drudge Report" but it was named as the "Drone" which Israel shot down. The American spin is amazing. The article reversed the story and made Israel look like the winner. The headlines revolved around Netanyahu warning Iran that Israel will take the harshest action against Iran’s intrusion into Israel and her role in Syria.
Downing 1 warplane with luck is not quote " a strategic phase ". Consistent downing is a change. So keep smoking whatever it is in your hookah and live under the Israelis.
Daahireeto Mohamud please don’t leave in a lie, can downing one f16make you a winner, please get brain
Frank Omo Apejoye
You are the ignorant one. Do you think Pakistan will sit and watch?
This kind of comment is a prime example of why Israel has use for large armed forces and why, for all its faults, decent people over the world continue to prefer Israel to all the Iran, Saudi and assorted Shia and Sunni Jihadists.
Frank Omo Apejoye My dear brother, Is real fought Hezbollah for days and came out with a draw. Hezbollah was then militia of 2500 men against 30,000 strong Isreali soldiers with modern weapons. So why do believe today that Israel is able to fight and win all the countries you named?
I like to advise Israel that obey God of Israel not to brake God’s commandment because God’s chosen people became I believe in God to love each other’s. I wish to pass the word of God to safe nations and beaver demonic sprite for that I am searching important videos to share bless you so God is turning from from them repent and left sins for God protection bless you to be strong in God of Israel Amin azmath
Frank Omo Apejoye
I am not interested in name calling sir as I am no stranger to differences of opinion. And from experience over the years I’ve realised one only resort to name calling because of lack of superior argument. Thanks for your reply anyway.
Frank Omo Apejoye must you guys show yourselves where ever you’re? It is not everyone that’s blinded by religion like most of you headless Nigerians are.
Well written and analized. It seems Israel is loosing it strategic advantage of even air superiority. On the ground they lost twice before with Hizbullah. So, it is now understood what is going to happen in future.
Frank Omo Apejoye
Israel has lost moral authority so now the entire humanity is against it. Guilty spirits cannot fight and win, it’s the other way.
Abdullahi Bala Jibril Nigerians have established a new religion which most of the masses subscribe to, it is called BIGOTRISM and the followers are known as bigots. You will find the majority mostly among those the educated middle class flock, even though they profess to be Christian or Muslim just engage them on any national issue and their true religion would be quickly revealed. Plus they will hopelessly resort to name calling for lack of logical argument because their mind is like a drone controlled by someone else. Please always avoid them like a plague because they are incorrigible.
Shah of Iran threw out by Israel France America and England, during the Iran and Iraq war these countries made big amount of money out of war , isn’t it enough all the crimes Iran government ( your puppet) have done? Do you politicians need more power and money? Now is it proven that your god is better than Muslims god ? If there is a god I doubt it . Finish it you want attack Iran ? Do it . Just finish it …. is really any god there ? Or do you believe in god ? Just end the story .
And u think Isreal is the only country in the region with nukes..U r kidding
It tells us that you know nothing about military hardware.
Max Jampasee what can Pakistan do besides being one of the largest sponsors of terrorism in the world?
Tim Ebrahimy actually the US has cone out in support of the retaliation by Israel. So has Britain.
Abdullahi Bala Jibril is cow we know the truth
Israel should pay the price for its crimes against innocents.
Mohamed Sovula Sr. Till date Lebanon is yet to recover from the consequences of that ill advised war HEZBOLLAH dragged them into. This time I hear Israel has promise to now even attack the Lebanese army and govt target if paradventure HEZBOLLAH attacks from within the Lebanese territory again. When the war starts some people hailing HEZBOLLAH will turn to accuse Israel of using excessive force forgetting that in a war situation every party will spare nothing to maintain a strategic advantage. The war will be easier because the whole of Lebanon will become legitimate target for attack and destruction!
Israelis only can flight Womens, Innocent children with their heavy weapons, aeroplanes and tanks , but they can’t fight Muslim brothers just like hizbullah (The Army of Allah. God bless Hizbullah.
Max Jampasee no it’s not possible . becuse isreal is the reason of the turmoil in this region .
Blake Dinkin we are not terrorist America and isreal are terrorists of the world. CIA and And Mussat made 9/11.
Man lee seems you have never lived under the threat of terrorists
and countries like Iran thretening you. Maybe you are just a terrorist yourself