An annual assessment of global military capabilities and defense economics has been released by the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. Titled “The Military Balance,” it provides government leaders with sound analysis regarding contemporary spending trends on military capabilities.
This year’s report startled many in the US defense establishment, for it details the extraordinary depth of global redundancy in Beijing’s defense procurement. The report is a benchmark upon which Washington views its own capability requirements. What the report reveals is stark: Beijing’s reach is global, while America’s remains parochial.
Beijing’s progress in fielding near-peer competition in avionic and naval capabilities has outpaced growth in every Western nation-state, from ultra-long-range conventional missiles to fifth-generation fighter jets. As seen with the launch of its first Type 055 destroyer last year, China has not stopped recapitalizing it entire surface-to-subsurface fleet. As for the air fleet, China’s own fifth-generation fighter incorporates stealth and supersonic cruising speed with integrated avionics.
China still needs to develop and field suitable tactics to operate low-observable jets while it synchronizes a mix of contemporary doctrines adjusting for differences among fighter craft. If Beijing can succeed in integrating air-to-air missile technology into its fifth-generation fighter, it will be able to deter US dominance in the Western Pacific.
Anti-access aerial denial systems (A2AD) will be complemented abroad with Beijing’s global supply chain. It seeks to deploy an ambitious arms-export strategy securing regional allies throughout the globe with advanced technologies in unmanned armed drones for Pakistan, Egypt, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Persian Gulf monarchies. The Americans can no longer depend on acquiescent Arab partners with immediate availability from China on the horizon. By any measure, the view of China as an isolated outpost vulnerable on its eastern flank is closing quickly.
By seeking to deploy ambitious weaponry abroad, it sends a message to the Americans that they can no longer accept benign operating environments abroad.
It is on land that China is most vulnerable. Its efforts to modernize its army pale in comparison with its achievements in avionics and naval procurements. China still spends more on domestic repression of its interior than all of its defense spending combined. The social and ideological portents of the ruling Han remain deeply vulnerable in the interior, and it is here that the West faces an indomitable challenge.
To succeed against China, the Americans need to find allies throughout China’s southern breadbasket, the Mekong, as well as regions that have historically remained hostile to Han rule. The aggressive nature of Beijing’s hand throughout the South China Sea portends favorably to ambitious foreigners.
Exploiting social and political grievances against the ruling Han deep in China’s interior and southern littoral is how best to threaten China.
With new war-fighting concepts dominating the PLA in operational systems, it is time for realists throughout Western chanceries to return to Carl von Clausewitz, and view war as an extension of politics.
It bears reminding that in this clash of military perspectives that China’s posture is essentially defensive. It does not seek to project power, is not expansionist and does intent to export its socio-economic model. The West, led by Americans, think their system is the pinnacle of development, hence their End of History proclamation, relentless regime changes, colour revolutions and endless wars.
I hope that they succeed. If they fail, the USA will take care that they will not rise again. We need a strong multipolar world for the better of all of us.
It bears remembering that CHINA has been the agressor in the SCS for the last 10 years. It is the PRC that has occupied territory, not the US.
We do not need a brutal dictatorship as one of those powers… Do you know nothing of history?
Michael Quinney. You don’t seem to know your history. You Americans have been at war from the very beginning, starting with the war of extermination against Native Americans, then on to Mexico, grabbing California, Texas, New Mexico & more. Then came the Monroe Doctrine & war in Cuba & more. Grabbed Hawaii, invaded the Phlippines, massacring so-called Pacific Niggers. WWI, WW2 (the only good war). Korea. Vietnam. Afghan. Iraq, Libya, Syria. Yeah, you came in peace, protecting human rights.
Oman has already signed the Indian Naval access agreement as well as India has signed a 20-year pact with the Seychelles to build an airstrip and a jetty for its navy in the island chain. China can’t have a strategic alliance with Maldives or Srilanka as it won’t be feasible. Even Pakistan Gwadar & Jiwani will be a lost cause with pincer effect from Mumbai & Duqm. India wouldn’t have gone to this extent if China accepted the equality with India and sincerely attempted to resolve the border dispute. Instead it went ahead to unilaterally change the statusquo and during 73days standoff at Doklam it literally cried for the destruction of India which changed the relationship once for all. China will see the aggressive India challenging China in all the ways and beyond what China can imagine.
Esby Toh LOL! So your country did not put its hand out to the US looking for a free ride?
Esby Toh And China’s communist party has killed far far more people in the last 60 years than the US killed in the last 240.
And who killed all the TIBETANS ..At least USA has a rule of law
America is nothing but a big shit
Michael Quinney Then now show us the creditable stats of your claim.
US is blaming everyone for her failure of foreign and economic pllicies! Her corrupt system is tha cause of her demise as superpower!
Dream on. India will never match China, and never did. But they deserve each other.
Peter Skotarenko You are absolutely right! China is going down faster than expected and India is growing faster than expected! No new free world dual use technology will be available to China and all its Industrial espionage has been blocked and its influencing operations in democracies have also been stopped so effectively starting from Australia to USA. As you said India will never be matched by China in future (unless it becomes a free democracy).
Ravi ji, first of all India need to solve vicious problems she has as shown in the film "Toilet" played by Akshaya Kumar , gender inequality, rape, morder, poverty and so on. After solving these fundamental problems, big talk sounds big otherwise ……..everything you say you do that vanishes with the tears and blood of innocent civilians who are always in fear in their so called homeland !!!!