The UN Security Council meeting on Tuesday regarding Turkey’s military operations in Syria turned out to be like the dog that didn’t bark in the night in the Sherlock Holmes short story. There was no bark – no statement by the Security Council – condemning Turkey.
However, these are early days and the big powers are assessing Turkey’s intentions and what might be in the changing picture for them. So far, Turkish President Recep Erdogan has played a masterful game.
On the one hand, he has rallied the country’s two main opposition parties behind his decision to order military operations – a domestic consensus that gives him a free hand to maneuver abroad. On the other, he is riding the wings of Turkish nationalism, which makes it extremely difficult for the international community to pressure him. The principle Erdogan upholds – of defending Turkey’s borders – is difficult to contest. Even NATO concedes the legitimacy of the Turkish operation to protect its borders.
Afrin’s importance for Turkey is well-recognized, too. It borders Hatay and Kilis, Turkey’s Syrian border provinces, and has been the gateway to the Amanos Mountains, where Kurdish guerillas fight the Turkish army. The Kurdish fighters ensconced in Afrin have amassed a big stockpile of weapons, thanks to American supplies since 2016: multiple rocket launchers, missile launchers, 80- and 120-mm mortars, MK19 grenade launchers, US-made BGM-71 TOW anti-tank missiles, reconnaissance vehicles, FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank missiles, and so on.
Besides, Afrin district slouches toward the Eastern Mediterranean coast. The Kurds hope to create a homeland that is not land-locked. Thus, by the fourth day of Turkish operations (Tuesday), Erdogan had already expanded its scope. Turkish forces have appeared to the east of Afrin as well, and aim to push back Kurdish fighters, who currently control around 65% of Turkey’s border with Syria.
The national security council which met in Ankara on Tuesday announced: “Our operations will continue until the separatist terror organization is fully cleared from the region and around 3.5 million Syrians who are now sheltered in Turkey are able to securely return to their homeland.”
Erdogan feels emboldened by the muted international reaction. He said on Tuesday: “We have no time to listen to what other countries say about our operation. The decision to launch the operation was given by our people. The people will not give any respite to a few ignoble men on our borders.” The belligerent tone is in marked departure from his own modest claim just two days ago that he sought an agreement with Russia to commence the operation.
Of course, the breakdown of trust and transparency in US-Russia relations works to Erdogan’s advantage. Equally, the Trump administration’s declaration that Iran is in its crosshairs in Syria prompts Tehran to look away while Turkey crushes the US’ only credible allies on the Syrian chessboard.
According to Iranian reports, Kurdish fighters have suddenly retreated from their positions in the Syrian-Iraqi border regions along Deir Ezzur and Iraq’s al-Qaem border region in Western Al-Anbar, and Iraqi forces and Shi’ite Hashd al-Shaabi militia (backed by Iran) are moving in.
Indeed, if Turkey steps up its military advances, Kurds will be compelled to retreat from the predominantly Arab regions around Raqqa and Deir Ezzor. That would nullify the impressive territorial gains that the US achieved toward gaining control of the Syrian-Iraqi border (and the fabulous oil fields in Deir Ezzor) in order to block a land route connecting Tehran with Beirut via Iraq-Syria.
Russia has tried to persuade Kurds to hand over Afrin and the oil fields to Syrian government forces as a quid pro quo for prevailing on Turkey to stop its operations. Quite possibly, Kurds, thoroughly disenchanted by the US’ inability to come to their aid, may eventually strike a deal with Russia.
Russia gains in other directions too. Its acquiescence is vital for Turkey to continue with the operation in Syria. In turn, Turkey is cooperating with Russia’s prestigious project to hold the Syrian National Dialogue Congress in Sochi on January 29-30, which is a necessary step toward national reconciliation and settlement.
Turkey is also obliged to look away from the ongoing operations by Syrian government forces (backed by allies and Russian air support) to take control of Idlib province to the west of Afrin. Idlib borders the coastal province of Latakia, where Russia’s air and naval bases are located.
If the Turkish operations in Afrin succeed and Syrian government forces take control of Idlib, Kurdish plans (tacitly supported by Washington) to create a contiguous homeland across northern Syria with access to the Mediterranean become a pipedream. This brings Russia, Turkey and Iran on the same page.
Having said that, you can trust Turkey to hold back-to-back negotiations with the US. Interestingly, the Turkish national security council’s announcement recasting the raison d’etre of the military operation took into account discussions in Ankara earlier in the day with a visiting US delegation comprising military and intelligence officials and led by Deputy Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs Jonathan Cohen.
Turkey’s non-negotiable demand will be that the Pentagon must conclusively end any sort of alliance or quasi-alliance with Syrian Kurds. The Turkish operations in Syria give Erdogan greater leverage to extract concessions from the Trump administration, since Turkey is maneuvering into a position where it can render meaningless and untenable the Pentagon’s plans to keep an indefinite military presence in northern Syria.
Meanwhile, Turkey will avoid any showdown with US forces in Syria. Turkey allows the US to use it Incirlik base in northern Syria, even as Turkish jets take off from the same base to pound the US’ Kurdish allies. The US has no option but to remain mindful of Turkey’s importance as a NATO member country, as a New Cold War with Russia and China revs up.
Thank Mr. Bhadrakumar, masterful.
It seems that the Kurds as a people and culture and civilisation and language have no home and are spread out over Turkey, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and nearby countries. Why is this so? Why cannot the United Nations do something about it?
This is pragmatic analysis at its best. Whatever our conclusion about Edorgan he as proven times without number that he’s a cat with nine life, irrespective of his position he as always managed to survive and in fact he always came out stronger. If there’s anything I’ve learnt from reading Mk’s analysis over the years it is that in the art of politics zero sum mind set is a surefire to self destruction, there is principle and there is extremism, a politician must always recognise the borderline between the two, when he is being principle and when he is becoming extreme. Edorgan came into Syria a villain, opposed by Turkey’s largest opposition party and almost half of Turkey’s electorate, at a point his Syria policy was totally going down the drain almost cost him his power and life, but today he may eventually come out of the Syria war a Turkish hero both for the Islamist – his immediate constituent – and the nationalist translating to more internal power and stability for him.
He has done this without burning all his bridges to the West or to the East, much as his Syria policy appear opportunistic.
However, I think his unpredictability also make him an unreliable partner which is something that comes at a cost, with regime change still hanging over his head I believe the grace he enjoy presently can be directly linked to the internal political polarisation in the US between the ruling elites and Trump. If Clinton had won the election her neocons and neoliberal warmonger policy elites would have been on overdrive with Moscow on all fronts, from Ukraine to Syria and Edorgan Turkey will not be an exception, Turkey would have been swarmed with "Jihadi Johns" so that if the neocons can’t have Turkey firmly in its camp then no one can. Here is where Edorgan unreliability could backfire because unlike Assad who as demonstrated his dependability in the Resistance Axis not eschewing pragmatism, Edorgan will find himself almost alone with no major power ready to come to his aid militarily, in such situation I don’t know how long he could survive with the Western front throwing all what its got at Turkey and exploiting her internal divide. At that point for any major power to come to his aids will be at a steep price, nevertheless, do not take it away from the Sultan, he is a survivor and you will not want to bet against him in a hurry.
This is a masterclass lesson in analysis by M.K. Bhadrakumar — someone with actual experience in Turkey and Central Asia during his diplomatic career. Not like this other ‘arm-chair’ analyst who write about shorting the Turkish economy, because a stable Turkey doesn’t suit his home base in Tel Aviv and Brooklyn.
United Nations ??? What can they do ? And what have they done with the illegal theft of Palestinian lands and nationhood
The Kurds, Islam’s black sheep, are getting their due. They must be ethnically cleansed from the future New Silk Road route.
Salahuddin The Kurd (Saladin) was solely responsible for 12th century rout of the Crusaders whose aim was to open the Silk Road controlled by the Kaliphate since 632AD with oppressive Tariffs. China, Russia, and Iran, Turkey will never allow them to sit on the BRI Route to do an encore.
Saladin also was the rascal who closed down Al-Azhar, the first secular university in the world where research was done in Physics, Chemistry, Math, and Logic. He reopened as a Sunni Madressah, making him the father of Sunni Jihad and ensuing Sunni ignorance. Every Sunni should go and urinate on his grave since he is responsible for much of the ill facing Sunni Islam today.
Go Turkey Go.
This was the master plan drawn by the British after the defeat of the Otterman empire. Keep the fighting and opposing clans, tribes, etc. into one ‘country’ and let the minority rule. So, British would be the power broker in the region. This role is now assumed by USA.
Give them the rust belt in the US, nobody in the USA wants to live there anyway.
"in such situation I don’t know how long he could survive with the Western front throwing all what its got at Turkey and exploiting her internal divide"
Erdogen has already taken that into consideration hence the purchase of the S400 system from Russia. just a tiny hint at where he is taking his country. He now knows that no matter how much he kisses up to the EU his country will never be a member. He now knows that the US is more of a danger to him and his country than are the Russians and the Iranians. Living and dealing with the US is like living with a half dozen vipers in your house. Eventually you are going to get bitten and you are going to die. That is why he is creating warmer relations with Russia and a more tolerant attitude towards Iran. If the West turns on him as they aready did in the attempted overthrow of his government he will not be without allies.
In fact the best thing to happen to Erdogen was the US attempted coup against him. It allowed him to go after his enemies , all of them, and render them helpless. He is much stronger now than he was before the coup, and the US, and NATO much weaker in his country. it will not take much for Turkey to end up solidly in the Russian , Chinese camp.
The US is desperate to keep Turkey in NATO, but one more time it has tripped all over it`s penis by being just a bit too clumsy, cleaver and " Exceptional".
Give them New South Wales buddy. How you like them apples, damn liberals.
Thomas Daniel Kuhn the worst thing as opposed to having the USA as an enemy is having them as a friend.
There is lot’s of Kurds who living happly under the Turkish Republic wings.But YPG These terrorists just wont stop. İt’s never enough to them. We gave them freedoom more then any country can give. We let them speak kurdish learn in Kurdish watch kurdish tv channels and offer them political solution instead of bullets. They agree and work silent under the shadows. Then start a rebellion in the Diyarbakır they killed villagers innocent people who cant defend them selfves.Enough is Enough !
There is lot’s of Kurds who living happly under the Turkish Republic wings.But YPG These terrorists just wont stop. İt’s never enough to them. We gave them freedoom more then any country can give. We let them speak kurdish learn in Kurdish watch kurdish tv channels and offer them political solution instead of bullets. They agree and work silent under the shadows. Then start a rebellion in the Diyarbakır they killed villagers innocent people who cant defend them selfves.Enough is Enough !
Kurds have a 1,400 year long history of living off others.
Americans are only the latest.
Fernando Martinez
LOL
Very perceptive.
It is mostly imperialist meddling in the affairs of the area which has created the misery for everyone, including the Kurds. If that stopped, people in the region could work out their differences and live in peace.
When Great Britain and France drew up the modern lines of the Middle East under the Sykes Picot Agreement in May 16, 1916 Israel was central to that agreement. Israel was central to this agreement because the Rothschild promised to save England, France and Russia from certain defeat.
It was a defeat the Colonial Empires of England and France could not afford. The Rothschild promised the entry of America and in return England and France must set the groundwork for the formation of Israel.
The Sykes/Picot agreement was done in secret by two highly skilled nations who knew the Middle East region and all her complex ethnic groups well. Yet it was executed in a manner to ensure the greatest amount of instability.
It was a map meant to keep the region hostile against each other, to keep western powers in that region, and to empower Israel as the superpower. All of those requirements have been met by masters at strategizing in order to save their Empires from being defeated by Germany.
That agreement that created Israal and a world of chaos around her by America going on 100 years. What I cannot figure is why the Kurds were left out.
Correction: That agreement which created Israel and a world of chaos around has been maintained by America going on 100 years. What I cannot figure is why the Kurds were left out.
Are the Kurds the "wild card" meant to ensure chaos if the region somehow finds a solution for peaceful co existance?
Michael Bagala , probably yes… See last year’s "Barzani’s" referendum with Israel’s very overt support ( this time Israel was "overt" and the Anglos trying to be "covert" )
Wrong, Mr. Ram Nath!
English medium enables Indian sub-continent to integrate seemlessly with English speeking world.
I find this analysis very wise and balanced.
Fair enough.
Thomas Daniel Kuhn US has no capacity to open new fronts, Afghan war failure has dented the US.