“Olive Branch” is the Orwellian-named Turkish invasion of a chunk of Syria. The operation comes as no surprise. President Tayyip Erdogan had hinted for nearly a year that a move was likely in the Syrian Kurdish canton of Afrin.
With Ankara staging a full-scale offensive into this small piece of Syrian real estate, which is roughly 40 kilometers long and 30 km wide, the endgame looks a foregone conclusion.
After all, it is defended by a minimally equipped force of no more than 10,000. Turkish soldiers should take it in record time.
Diplomatic sources confirmed to Asia Times that the Turkish offensive was directly approved by Russian generals after a visit to Moscow by Hakan Fidan, second in command at the MIT, the Turkish secret service.
For his part, Aldar Khalil, the co-chair of the Movement of a Democratic Society in Afrin, has been quite vocal about Moscow’s strategy. “Syrian Kurdish forces were given an ultimatum over the weekend,” Khalil said. “[We were told] leave your positions to the Syrian regime or face the wrath of Ankara. They chose to stay.”
This decision was taken after the Russians had asked the Kurds to make at least a gesture of appeasement towards Ankara. Washington’s plan to support, finance and weaponize the formation of a Syrian Kurd statelet in northeast Syria in the mold of the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq was an absolute red line for Ankara.
‘Safe zone’
Even offering Erdogan a much cherished “safe zone” was not enough to appease him – considering a US-proposed “border force” of 30,000 could always be able to stage incursions into southeastern Turkey in the near future.
Internally, Operation Olive Branch is a shrewd move for Erdogan. Turkish nationalism is at fever pitch, so public opinion is largely behind the operation. For the Turkish president, this is an electoral bonanza.
Still, conversations with analysts reveal there is no guarantee Ankara has the military competence to hold on to Afrin. The Turkish military is largely demoralized after being gutted by Erdogan during the last several years following the 2016 coup attempt, which was carried out by a faction within the armed forces.
There is also deep suspicion among the top brass that the army is being used as cannon fodder.
As long as the operation is portrayed as “the defense of the motherland,” motivation in the army will hold up. But if it derails into meddling in an intractable Arab civil war, Erdogan will start to face insurmountable problems.
If the Turkish military fails, his credibility will be in tatters. The threat is eminently plausible. Imagine if the Syrian Kurds decide to ally themselves with Damascus to confront the Turks, fearful that an Arab jihadist enclave might be revived in Afrin.
As it stands, we are facing quite a juicy paradox. We could have a secular Syrian President Bashar al-Assad watching from afar as a NATO ally of the US takes responsibility for smashing what could easily become yet another recycling assembly line of jihadists.
Remember, Erdogan is at the mercy of Russia’s goodwill, even though Moscow and Ankara are currently in total synch on the key issue, which is that Washington must be deprived of any leverage in Syria.
Things will come to a head on Monday when Russia hosts the Syrian National Dialogue Congress in Sochi. Sochi, not Geneva, is the forum where the endgame for the Syrian proxy war will be decided.
Damascus is on board. So is Tehran. Ankara may also be, as long as it reins in those “moderate rebels” it controls in Idlib province and brings them to the table in Sochi. And Moscow was happy to back Olive Branch; one day after the operation was launched, Russia announced a final list of Sochi attendants. Of course, Turkey was on it.
The bottom line is the Kremlin has Erdogan on board, but he will have to tread a fine line. Moscow is unlikely to sacrifice a prime piece of Syrian real estate, along with carefully choreographed relations with Tehran and Damascus, for Ankara to deliver a bunch of Sunni hardliners to the Sochi table.
‘Terror organization’
For its part, Ankara announced that “our operations will continue until the separatist terror organization, the YPG [Yekineyen Parastina Gel] is fully cleared from the region and around 3.5 million Syrians who are now sheltered in Turkey are able to securely return to their homeland.”
From Ankara’s perspective, this implies there will be no US-backed Syrian Kurd statelet. In turn, this is bad news for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which trusted Washington’s balkanization gambit and were trained by US special forces.
If that was not bad enough, the SDF is also accusing the Russians of treason. NATO’s southern command is in disarray, with question marks hanging over the Incirlik Air Base in Turkey. The US needs Ankara’s cooperation to use it.
NATO also needs Turkey for access to the Black Sea for any future operations against Russia and Crimea. What is absolutely certain is that the Sochi Three – Russia, Iran and Turkey – have all agreed that Washington should have no influence in Syria.
In this latest chapter of the New Great Game, Turkey is bang in the middle. It will now depend on Russia and Iran for energy, with Moscow building power stations and delivering an S-400 missile defense system to Ankara.
Turkish trade will also involve China’s New Silk Road, or the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Eurasia Economic Union of Iran, Russia, Central Asia and China. “Go East” – not West – will now be the mantra.
Turkey, Syria, Iran, Kurds have feet on the ground.
But the winner in this war is China, and the loser America.
With BRI China bids to re-open the Silk Road milked by the Sunni Kaliphate in 632 with oppressive Tariffs (Arabic word). In 1453 the Turkish Kaliphate took Constantinople and closed the Silk Road altogether, impoverishing China and Europe.
Neither China, nor Europe can afford an encore while Kaliphate loving Sunnis sat smack in the middle. The Sunni areas of Iraq, Syria had to be ethnically cleansed, and Turkey neutralized. China’s masterful strategy has used Russian Christians, Irani, Iraqi, and Syrian Shia to achieve this pre-requisite to New Silk Road.
The 1,400 year history of Islam is a Sunni-Jewish alliance against a Shia-Christian one. But the Sunnis are now split, divided, and Shia and Christians are united. Future trade routes unifying Europe, Asia, and Africa are now safe under the Shia-Christian watch despite the nefarious wishes of America, Israel, and Saudi Arabia who have been outplayed. This is not 7th century.
Well done China.
Abbas your deep seated hatred is blinding your vision and statistics
Hopefully even the lunatic imbeciles in US foreign policy circles can hear Turkey’s Stentorian voice in response to recent US / Israeli moves in the region. Eviction notices might be coming soon if the US wants to play tough.
As I’ve said before, Erdogan most probably believes (correctly in my opinion) that US/NATO needs Turkey more than Turkey needs US/NATO. With Russia and China as eager trading partners, Turkey can dish out powerful retaliations against the US. The attack on US backed Kurds in Syria reflects that belief, and importantly, Erdogan’s resolve to play hard ball when necessary.
Abbas you made some valid points but later delve into conspiracy theory, while there’s no doubt that China stand to reap lots of strategic benefits from the Syria conflict is the Russia/Iran/Syria axis should triumph there’s nothing to indicate or prove China is the prime mover of these genocidal war. For the sower of these horror please look no further than the axis of annihilation, the purveyor of death and destruction, those who depend on endless war in order to maintain there economic leads…the giant with kids brain. The name of her capital start with W.
"Hakan Fidan, second in command at the MIT, the Turkish secret service."
Sloppy journalism in combination with decent analytical skills (provided he is not in heavy propagandistic mode, as he is too often) always makes Escobar entertaining reading.
"Washington’s plan to support, finance and weaponize the formation of a Syrian Kurd statelet in northeast Syria in the mold of the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq was an absolute red line for Ankara."
and
"considering a US-proposed “border force” of 30,000 could always be able to stage incursions into southeastern Turkey in the near future. "
What those two quotes tell me is that America is working directly against Turkey, a major member of NATO and in behalf of the Kurds. A Kurdish homeland benefits Israel at the expense of every nation in the Middle East.
Nations like Turkey, Syria, Iraq and even Iran will have to choose between giving up sizable parts of their land to form Kurdistan, fight the Kurds or annihilate them. Only Israel is spared this choice.
What I see is more fighting on a larger scale with American men and women dying for yet another war created by Israel and her people in America.
You are a truly an Evil man…..trying to play up the muslim division on sectarian grounds…..fire is your only home and your dreams of Shia dominance over 80% sunnis will remain just that
Very not true:
"Washington’s plan to support, finance and weaponize the formation of a Syrian Kurd statelet in northeast Syria in the mold of the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq was an absolute red line for Ankara."
No such plan. SDF does not want "statelet", but federated Syria.
Demonstrates the racist base of attacks on Afrin. These are not terrorists, they are Kurds. That’s enough to make them targets. Racism.
Kurds in Syria, and increasingly elsewhere, do not want to run the state. They want to run their towns. SDF is democratic, thus it is feared by all the would-be empires.
This idiot´s writing mixes the Iran´s political component with the religious one like he was on a hole on the wall restaurant and trying to make an odd salad. He is absolutely absurd. Of course, we need to consider the religious component. Many people need to remember that Iran is a democratic country with a religious accent. Whether we like it or not it is up to the people who lives there. Many surveys show that the mayority of the people are pleased with the type of government they have. The discussion is more about the degree as to how much the religious group should be involved.
If we tried to relate what it is happening lately on Iran to the type of government they have that person in particular is a political propagandist or a moron.The latest incidents were caused mainly by economical issues. I think the Iran´s government should have brought up to light more firmly about what the Empire of Chaos is doing. Her continued trade imposition and its damaging financial consequences on Iran.
We can easily also extract from the latest revolts and exude an skewed analysis based on your own beliefs especially if you live on the Empire of Chaos. I would certainly say a great deal of the latest revolts were promoted and paid by Israel and the Empire.
Yes, I understand the need to change but you tell me which country in the Middle Esta who happen to be Islamic and could claim all those those rights is he talking about? Definitely, Iran is on the forefront.
Alan Harvey you are wrong because Turkish Army has so many Kurdish forces named as OSO and fight against terrorists with Turkish Armed Forces. Also Turkish government has so many ministers and commanders inside as kurd. There are only terror camps and terrorists there. Look at the peoples live in idlib with a good conditions. Our vision is "Peace in the world, Peace in the home" but, if peace gets so many inocent peoples of us. Enought. Time to get peace with weapons….
Alan Harvey sdf democratic terrorists 😀 . You are so funny
Alan Harvey
The Media in the US reports otherwise. The MSM claims the Kurds want a homeland and not simply the limited power to run their towns. In this instance I believe the MSM. Remember Saddam and his gassing of the kurds?
Even if the Kurds simply want that I doubt if Israel or the US will listen to them. Forming Kurdistan is not done due to compassion or goodwill. In my opinion it is done to destroy nations by forming one.
There is no way to form Kurdistan without cutting it from Arab nations . The question then is which is more important? forming Kurdistan or destroying Israel’s enemies?
For the life of me I never understood Erdogan’s Waiting @ The Door to gain entry onto the European dinner table- a soon to become empty table….while he could have access to the entire Central Asia, Russia, Iran, and China..
So let me get this straight….Turkey, a NATO ally, is battling the Kurds, whom the USA supports….at the behest of Russia in Syria….I’m confused
Whilst I agree that china is the winner of this chaotic war, China merely responded to American initatives in the region.
The American need to control global energy flows was Americas motivation to destroy Iraq Syria Libya, and persecute Iran.
If not for American greed and incompetence China would have found it much more difficult to move forward with it’s Silk road project.
Michael Bagala
" Remember Saddam and his gassing of the kurds? "
Yes I remember Donald Rumsfeld giving Saddam gas to kill Kurds, and Iranians.
Turkey has been trying to gain acceptance by Europe for hundreds of years. When Asia was in chaos, and mostly subjugated by European nations, it made sense for Turkey to want to join the west.
Today the world order is shifting, the wealth and power is moving from the west, to the east, but it takes time to break old dogma’s.
America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.
(Henry Kissinger)
Right move, to diffuse US destabilization of the Middle East.
"What those two quotes tell me is that America is working directly against Turkey, a major member of NATO and in behalf of the Kurds." – America are using the Kurds for their own nefarious ends. They want to balkanize Syria, Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Egypt, if we are to believe the Ode Yinon plan for a Greater Israel.
Allan Jeffreys
My point was killing Kurdish civilians remains a choice. Your point was America’s hand in it.
Bill Rollinson
I agree but the subtle difference is that America is now a Jewish run state. They have killed off the Catholic influence and practically neutered Protestantism. Jews rule America from within and from Israel.
The job given to Americans is to march to the tune of Jews, and d fight and die for the Israeli flag.
You mean the Shah’s kids?
Abbas doesn’t represent sunni. Syrian majority is with asad as acnowledged by us.
Wanting to Safe zone for 3 million people who is taking shelter in Turkey no wonder he is being supported on humanitarian ground.I wish he would create another one at Rakhine state for Rohingya as well.
"But the winner in this war is China, and the loser America."
Never, ever underestimate the US under these circumstances. You have to live and grow deeply educated inAmerica to recognize how ideologically potent the Zionists are in Washington, D.C. along with the zionism that pervades the Israel lobby
Ibrahim
You are from University of Dundee or university of ISIS.