Not many political developments in Nepal make headlines in international media. The recently concluded elections for the House of Representatives and provincial assemblies, however, drew a lot of international attention and deep concerns.
The reason was that the left alliance, which is ideologically close to the Communist regime China, had a landslide victory in the national election and is preparing to form a new government. If the alliance remains intact, Khadga Prasad Oli, chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) or CPN-UML, will lead the new government, where he will face immense foreign-policy challenges.
Though Nepal’s communist parties have transformed into democratic parties, their rise always becomes a matter of concern for both India and Western countries.
Mainstream Indian media have reported that the left alliance’s victory will further solidify China’s footprint in Nepal, which is partially true. They are also worried that India’s influence will further dwindle in Nepal while China makes wide inroads. This perception was developed because the media and intelligentsia in New Delhi believe that Oli, who served as prime minister from October 2015 to August 2016, is close to Beijing. Such perceptions arose in New Delhi for at least three reasons.
First, during the Nepal-India border blockade in 2015, Oli stood firmly against it. Indian media, think-tanks and officials believe that this created anti-India sentiments in Nepal and set up a favorable environment for China to increase its influence.
Second, Oli signed a trade and transit agreement with Beijing that aimed to end India’s monopoly in the supply system of day-to-day essentials. Until 2015, Nepal had such an agreement only with India, but now it has been diversified.
Third, Oli has publicly criticized Indian interference in the internal political affairs of Nepal. Even after the elections, Oli has said that some foreign forces were trying to stop him from taking leadership of a new government, clearly hinting that he meant India.
For half a century, India enjoyed exclusive influence in Nepal, but that has been challenged by China over the past decade. That is why there are fears among media, government officials and policymakers that the emergence of leftist parties will provide more room for China to advance its influence.
A nuanced study of a couple of developments that took place during the past two years shows that despite pressure from both of its giant neighbors, Nepal has gradually adopted a strong and independent foreign policy. It is almost certain that in the coming years, the government in Kathmandu will face further pressure from both India and China, so it needs a strong leadership to withstand this.
On May 12, 2017, Nepal decided to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative despite pressure from India not to be a part of it. India cited issues related to security and sovereignty to suggest that Nepal not sign on to the project. The next challenge for Nepal is to select and execute projects under the BRI in an independent and prudent way that will be beneficial for the country, while learning lessons from other South Asian countries. Intensive and careful homework is required before selecting and implementing the projects.
Nepal is heavily dependent on India for trade, investment, day-to-day needs and employment. Their open border and deep-rooted social and cultural relations are unique. The only option left for both countries is to take the relationship to a new level
When it comes to relations between Nepal and India, both countries must work to complete bilateral economic projects on time. Many hydropower and connectivity mega-projects remain unfinished. With the purpose of removing the hurdles holding back implementation of such projects, a joint mechanism has been formed that should expedite the work.
There have been delays in initiating two big hydropower projects, West Seti and Upper Karnali, and there are dozens of other bilateral projects that are proceeding at a snail’s pace.
Nepal is heavily dependent on India for trade, investment, day-to-day needs and employment. Their open border and deep-rooted social and cultural relations are unique. The only option left for both countries is to take the relationship to a new level.
Adopting balanced relationships remains an uphill task that South Asian countries are facing. New Delhi may be wary of growing Chinese investment in Nepal but it cannot prevent it.
Nepal is not the only neighbor of India where Chinese investment is rapidly growing. Recently, Maldives signed a free-trade agreement with China, Bangladesh is rapidly embracing the BRI project, and China has signed an agreement on a 99-year lease of Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port.
Seeking a balance
Like Nepal, other South Asian countries are struggling to maintain balanced relationships. All these countries are trying to expand economic cooperation with China while taking India into their confidence. India is of the view that growing Chinese projects in neighboring countries will affect its security, so another challenge of South Asian countries is to reassure New Delhi on its genuine security concerns.
As India cannot fulfill the development aspirations of those countries, Chinese investment in the region will increase. South Asian countries, however, must work to maintain a delicate balance between India and China.
The left alliance won the Nepalese election with the slogan of peace, development and prosperity. To bring prosperity and development to a resource-constrained country like Nepal, the alliance will have to secure support from the international community.
Therefore, the new government will need to make an honest effort to maintain cordial relations with the international community. For its part, the international community should view the recent election in Nepal is an encouraging development. For a long time, the global community has called for peace, stability and development in Nepal.
Both India and China are saying that they want to see peace and stability in Nepal, and now here is hope for a new stable government in Kathmandu.
Virendra Pal Singh
Virendra Ji , if Nepali leave India you people can’t exist as now . Your Pakistani boarder is prevented by our fearless people. If India want to practice visa system we are very happy for this. We have enough space for our people, we can manage strongly.
Virendra Pal Singh U r absolutely right. This is what all
most Nepali People want . Let us pressure the government of both countries to use visa systems. So far the jobs, visit Nepal to see how many Indians work in Nepal and ask the government of India remittance inflows from Nepal. Nepal ranks fourth to send remittance to India.
Undoubtedly no one can argue more about the cultural and historical ties that Nepal and India has. India has to seek other ways to keep themselves safe from security concern that they think they have from china. We know both the neighbors china and india. The basic concern for nepalese is that india must stop interfering in nepals internal affairs and learn to be a good neighbor . China has always been a good neighbor and they never interfere. First, India must learn to behave with its neighbors , then i believe everything should be fine.
Peter J Karthak
Great reply
Virendra Pal Singh you think you are doing a favour on us. What about all those Indians residing in Nepal and making pretty good living.And if you were a true Indian you wouldn’t say that. The realtionship of Nepal with India and China is older than centuries and yet some hypocrites like you make a humiliating statements.
Virendra Pal Singh
My friend in India still think Nepal wants to keep open border with India , Nepali recruitment in Indian army to be used againt our friendly neighbors or so on .
Nepal have already purposed to amend Treaty Of Peace and Friendship 1950 many times . It was KP Oli who form EPG but now the time has come to scarpe it . People in Delhi still think Nepali getting employment as a gate keeper and being benefited . I recommend to read the fact that the remittance flow from Nepal to India is 100 times bigger then few Nepali migrant worker in Delhi send money to back home .
May be its the time to wake up .
If you do not trust one shop keeper then the only way is to change the shop .
KP Oli and Prachanda are the only matured person to lead Nepal – India relation to the next level . 90% of Nepali people hate Indian interference on Nepal internal matter . Nepal has no choice then to bring Railway from Karachi – Kerung to Kathmandu , Open at least 7 international checkpoint on northern border and connect Beijing with better road and rail routes . New Nepali generation can not offered to pay NPR 1000 for a litter of fuel on black .
Nepalo government need to maintain balanced relationship with India and China.
Somak Das you fool & poor people china invest more then 100 billion in pakistan – large invest in shri lanka & maldivs. Chinese are not like you poor. Your mantality is slavery. You has 60 millions of bagger and another 65 millions of monk bagger first feed them 2 times a day then think about pakistan – shrilanka.
Mahendra Man Singh you are the dog of indian who is barking in nepal.
The author too has repeated the same run-of-the-mill India-made argument about the so-called "genuine security concerns of India". But what are they? India uses such wishy-washy logic only to deter Nepal’s search of sovereign options by diversifying its international contacts including those with China. In this regard, two cases are pertinent. Firstly, there are too many big holes in India’s own security system. The finest example is that a few Pakistani intruders had easily made into India’s biggest airforce base in UP about four years ago. Had one early rising cook not spotted them at 3 AM in the morning, they could have caused untold devastation to that base and embarrass Indian the world over. It was India’s luck, and not its capacity for security, that helped out then. Secondly, and more imporantly, it has been India that has always been the major security risk for neighbours. Sri Lanka’s LTTE and Nepal’s Maoists are the instances. They were promoted, grommed, aided and abetted by the Indian politicos, bureaucrats, security forrces and so-calaled intelligentsia. Many Nepalese hope that when the Maoists stand trail for their decade-long killing spree, the responsible Indians too would be required to share the dock.
Do they really want to see peace and prosperous Nepal? If so then why dothey frequently interfere in the internal matters of Nepal? If they are the good neighbours then why there occur the problem of border encroachment? Obviously we need to adopt very strong diplomatic policy but why do they keep on arising issues and take advantages of we being landlocked? Why they are so eager to get the contract of bigger projects but once got it the pace of work is too slow? Does any stronger nation has any right to bully the weaker nations when we believe world to be our common home?
Max Jhon u seem to be a person leaving in the world of fools , India never used any country as slave , where as china does , and u seem to be a paid slave of China with no self respect . See what China has done with Pakistan and Srilanka ,they are literally made slave of China …if u want to be one of them than would say enjoy ….
The need of the hour for the Nepalese leadership is to embark on a balancing act between the two neighbours,whilst still retaining it’s own soverignity at the same. time.
I do not know what "balance" in Nepal’s China and India relations the writer is talking about. With India and China, Nepal has special and separate relations. When Nepal government and analysts mix these separate and distinct relations, they create self-defeating complications for themselves. What Nepal needs is to always keep on asserting an independent foreign policy of peaceful co-existence.
Navendu Kumar Randi ur dhoti also get job in nepal too mind it