In what has been described as “the most significant exposition of its ‘Act East’ policy,” India invited Southeast Asian heads of state as its chief guests during its recent 69th Republic Day parade.
The Commemorative Summit, held on January 25 and themed “Shared values, Common Destiny”, arguably marked the arrival of India as a major force in the broader Indo-Pacific theater.
The event was held against the backdrop of a revived and still emerging India, United States, Japan and Australia “quadrilateral” strategic arrangement aimed at counterbalancing China’s ambitions in the region.
Under its “Act East” policy, previously known as “Look East”, India has recently doubled down on its trade, investment and strategic relations with East and Southeast Asia, home to some of the world’s most dynamic economies and source of the natural resources, technology and markets needed to fuel its own fast growth.
The rise of China and perceived threats to India’s interests has reinforced New Delhi’s hopes of deepening its cooperation with key regional actors, including the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean).
Certain Southeast Asian countries have gradually come to embrace India as a major trading partner and a potential counterbalancing force for stability in the region. China’s rising assertiveness, including in the contested South China Sea, served as backdrop for the recent India-hosted summit.
The pageantry of the summit, which saw the attendance of 11 heads of state and government, underlined the diplomatic uptrend. Both sides celebrated 25 years of dialogue partnership, 15 years of summit level interaction, and five years of strategic partnership.
The event was attended by all Southeast Asian leaders, including those with the hottest claims vis-a-vis China in the South China Sea, namely Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc. Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, this year’s Asean rotating chairman, was also in attendance.
As expected, trade and maritime security issues dominated the agenda. At the same time, India’s business-oriented and nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi deftly leveraged the event to project himself as a global and regional statesman.
The economic stakes are high. Over the past year, India’s trade with Asean expanded by 10%, rising from US$65.1 billion to US$71.6 billion. While a positive uptrend, the numbers still pale in comparison to China’s US$452.31 billion in trade with Asean countries in 2016.
The Modi administration is intent on expanding trade and investment relations with booming Southeast Asia, which is moving towards greater economic integration with the hope of creating a common market within a decade.
India is also interested in engaging and influencing the direction of negotiations of Asean-led initiatives, namely the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) free trade agreement.
The Indian leader also sought to enhance into underdeveloped bilateral relations across Southeast Asia. In particular, Modi held cordial exchanges with Filipino leader Duterte, who likewise called for deeper economic ties between the two countries.
The Philippines and India discussed US$1.25 billion worth of bilateral investment pledges, largely in the area of energy, transportation, pharmaceutical industries and information technology which are expected to create as many as 10,000 jobs.
Yet, maritime security issues were also a key theme during the summit, with particular focus on China’s rising naval and territorial assertiveness in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
Photo: AFP/US Navy/Cole Schroeder
During his speech before Asean heads of state, Modi identified “humanitarian and disaster relief efforts, security cooperation and freedom of navigation” as key areas for maritime cooperation.
During the “retreat” segment of the summit, the leaders held off-the-record discussions which addressed maritime security issues, according to sources familiar with the talks.
Maritime security issues were highly prominent in the joint India-Asean statement, dubbed as the “Delhi Declaration.” Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to, “maintaining and promoting peace, stability, maritime safety and security, freedom of navigation and overflight in the region, and other lawful uses of the seas.”
They emphasized the necessity for protecting “unimpeded lawful maritime commerce”, while “promot[ing] peaceful resolutions of disputes” in accordance to international law.
In a clear reference to China’s disputes with Southeast Asian claimant states, the declaration also called for “full and effective implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of the Parties in the South China Sea (DoC)” as well as “early conclusion of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (CoC).”
The summit underlined India’s burgeoning interest in the South China Sea, through which the bulk of India’s trade and energy passes, not to mention major energy investment deals, particularly with Vietnam.
Perturbed by China’s expanding footprint in the Indian Ocean and rising tensions in disputed India-China borderlands in the Himalayas, the Modi administration appears to be taking the fight to China via stronger cooperation with Asean.
Yet, as Indian experts such as Abhijit Singh have warned, it’s important that both sides effectively manage their expectations lest they set themselves up for strategic disappointment.
They note bilateral India-Asean relations are, in many ways, still in their developmental stages, especially when compared to the bloc’s more robust relations with China, Japan and the United States. For instance, both sides are yet to discuss joint naval exercises, nor were there indications of a major boost to bilateral investment deals.
What is clear, however, is that India is emerging as a key strategic partner for Asean at a time several of its leading states are keen to diversify the region’s rising dependence on an increasingly assertive China. Shared concerns over China’s rise are fast becoming the glue which is bringing India and Asean closer and closer together.
In last 3,500 years India lost to Aryans, Greeks, Arabs, Afghans, Turks, Mongols, Mughals, then finally English. Every time the locals helped the invaders.
Neighbors aside, India is in real trouble at home. Over last 70 years of independence from the English, the high caste Hindus have alientated their own low caste, and others faiths through racism and discrimination.
High Caste Indians hate low caste, Sikhs, Muslims of which there are no less than 400 million (though officially only 170 million). These majority "minorities" are a 5th column. If China decided to take on India, they will find majority of Indians throwing gold petals on them to welcome.
Many thanks for your kind words.
As Syed Abbas has rightly pointed out India has got enough problems even within its own territory – I mainly mean the whole North-East India – where several armed organizations are fighting against the central government for decades. In other words, nearly its entire NE territories are – strategically speaking – extremely vulnerable. So, in a broader sense, the "false line" in fact runs along southwest China, western Burma and NE India. So, if I were influential Indian politicians, I’d try to solve the problems in the NE before I begin laying and implementing a Grand Strategy for the country before expanding its reach into the Far East. Its NE territories’ long-term stability is very precarious in my opinion. So far as I know the successive Indian central governments have been handling peoples in these areas very unfairly and with cunning tricks only for short-term gains.
Ram Gandhi No India is a fool to place its trust in the U.S. for in the end they will end up just like the Kurds, as a tool for their own benefit and then thrown upon the heap of all the other nations that trusted America…
Pakiland is a great example. Surrounded by smiling friends.
Nguyen
A strong friend is to be accepted, not rejected. I don’t turn away a friend when I am in trouble. Nor should India. India has only one-fifth the economic output of China. Both the USA and India need to ally to stop China. The Chinese press fears the Indo-US alliance. That in itself indicates it is the right way for India to go. Staying alone means being bullied.
Philosopher Thales, wont to walking with his head turned to stars, fell into a well without a parapet. The simple country girl who pulled him out chided him of ignoring pressing problems down here on the earth while watching the sky up above. Good advice then, good advice now.
While China has largely friendly neighbours – Russia, Mongolia, Central Asia, Pakistan, Korea, etc. India is surrounded by foes – Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh …
India will be advised to set its own region in order before venturing to faraway shores of Japan, Australia, the US.
The pot you’re smoking must be of fine quality. Pass on that shit
I’m just very curious about the role that the problem-ridden Burma would play in this game.
Right on cue, all the loyal dogs have followed the US in calling the region ‘Indo Pacific’. The Australian foreign minister also used the term yesterday. Gangster head USA will be pleased, and will pat the dogs oh so gently.
Big things have small beginnings. Asian countries live in fear of increasing Chinese threatening behaviour, and are ganging up to resist Chinese imperialism.
Nguyen
Wishful thinking. India is threatened every day on our border with China. china is a fanatical supporter of Pakistan which sends terrorists to kill Indians every day. What planet are you living on? We realise that by itself India is too weak to stand up to china. We need a powerful freind, and that can only be the USA.
Allan Jeffreys
India is threatened every day on our border with China. china is a fanatical supporter of Pakistan which sends terrorists to kill Indians every day. What planet are you living on? We realise that by itself India is too weak to stand up to china. We need a powerful freind, and that can only be the USA.
Wishful thinking. India is threatened every day on our border with China. china is a fanatical supporter of Pakistan which sends terrorists to kill Indians every day. What planet are you living on? We realise that by itself India is too weak to stand up to china. We need a powerful freind, and that can only be the USA.
test
The writer is trying very hard to project the event as very significant when you have Asean countries while making encouraging gestures with India remain very cautious of offending China. Very atmospheric with no real substances or much significance. The press release by Singapore emphasising on culture and trade said it all. I don’t see any Asean members making playing hero.
Talk is cheap, but that seems all India is good at. India is the one country dragging its feet preventing the completion of RCEP negotiations because it lacks the self confidence to compete against ASEAN countries, all other RCEP partners have sginalled their readiness.
India needs to get its act together and get RCEP completed this year or they will be seen by ASEAN countries as just a paper elephant.
ASEAN has been trying to get India to finalise RCEP since 2010 without much success. While India tries to sell Trump’s India-Pacific and no ASEAN took the bait, Singapore, chair of ASEAN, reminds Modi of India dragging its feet on finalising RCEP. What a great show of Indian leadership!
But they will take American money and say things the Americans want to hear.
Most Americans don’t know that the US sanctioned India, when India was building its nuclear deterrent, but I doubt if India has forgotten.
ASEAN will influence India to join OBOR and engage China in win win development. India and Asean are not that foolish to follow US diktats and devious propaganda against their own interests.