High-level inter-Korean talks at the border village of Panmunjeom not only represent a vital step in Winter Olympics’ diplomacy but also offer a tantalizing chance of a breakthrough in stalled six-party discussions.
In stark contrast with the usual tweet barrage, United States President Donald Trump even told South Korean President Moon Jae-in that the meeting could yield a positive outcome.
Among the possibilities are that Seoul and Pyongyang could resume civilian exchanges. The hotline between South and North Korea could reopen along with the joint Kaesong Industrial Region, which was closed in 2016.
The potential of reinvigorating the sidelined six-party talks, involving China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, the US and North Korea, is another possibility.
Beyond the Winter Olympics, the fierce divide between North and South, of course, will not be breached, even though North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has stressed that his country will not go nuclear unless “hostile forces” attack his regime.
He appears confident that there will not be a preemptive US nuclear strike because of the North’s deterrent. So, the question now is where will China position itself after the Panmunjeon talks?
Rumors that Beijing was resigned to an imminent war between Washington and Pyongyang were never credible. Certainly, one view that came out of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China last October was that President Xi Jinping would protect Beijing’s complex relationship with Washington in parallel with relationships with major trade partners across Asia.
But that does not necessarily mean abandoning North Korea. The number one strategic imperative for Beijing is to keep the country as a cushion against the US presence in Northeast Asia. A reunited Korean peninsula, with American soldiers stationed at China’s northwest border, has to be prevented at all costs.
Direct confrontation
Yet that also means averting any escalation that could lead to a direct confrontation with the US. So, it is fair to argue that Xi has concluded that business with the US far outweighs unconditional support for the North, which does not advance Beijing’s interests.
Leading Chinese adviser, Professor Shi Yinhong, has famously described North Korea as a “time bomb,” so contingencies plans have been put in place. The building of a six-lane highway between Shuangliao, a city in western Jilin, through to Ji’an, a prefecture-level city in the central region of Jiangxi, and on to the Korean border is significant.
It can be interpreted as a roadmap to secure the North’s nuclear arsenal in an extreme case. This would involve the Kim dynasty crumbling or a move by Beijing to change the Pyongyang regime – something that has been discussed by Chinese think tanks for years.
Indeed, that scenario ties up with suggestions that China’s People’s Liberation Army would not interfere even if the US launched a preemptive attack. Officially, though, Beijing’s position is in favor of the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.
This would start with a “double freeze” mechanism, allowing for dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang. Beijing is acutely aware that containing the North’s nuclear program will have a direct effect on the military upgrading of Japan and South Korea. China is also keen to improve relations with Seoul.
Since 1953, only a flimsy armistice exists on the Korean peninsula. And no geopolitical actor has attempted to alter the status quo. After all, any wobble would generate a tectonic shift in the Asia-Pacific geopolitical chessboard, with unforeseen consequences.
Now, though, a nuclear North Korea is changing the dynamics as competition between the US and China in the region intensifies along with Russia’s eastward tilt. Then, of course, there is Japan and South Korea, two major economic powers.
As much as the North may fear the impact in its own internal market of Beijing’s trademark geoeconomic onslaught, it is not far-fetched to imagine Kim looking toward Washington to throw a wrench into China’s New Silk Roads, known as the Belt and Road Initiative.
Just like Trump, Kim may not be a stellar reader. But he is certainly aware, as the Pentagon sees it, that the Western Pacific, coupled with the Indian Ocean, is absolutely strategic for the containment of China.
Studies such as Michael Green’s By More Than Providence: Grand Strategy and American Power in the Asia Pacific Since 1783 make it clear that the US will not tolerate another power establishing “exclusive hegemony.”
Still, Washington is at a loss when dealing with North Korea. Russia and China oppose any military solution which would interfere with their geopolitical aims. At the same time, Pyongyang wants to be accepted as a nuclear power and a key actor on the Asia-Pacific chessboard.
Devastating strike
Therefore, there are only three options on the table. The first is a devastating preemptive strike, nuclear as well as air and sea forces. This would lead to an immense loss of life not only in the North but also in Seoul, which would be within range of Kim’s artillery.
The talks in Panmunjeon are yet more evidence that President Moon is doing everything in his power to prevent a march toward war.
The second option is to accept North Korea as a nuclear power under stringent international controls from the US, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea. The de-escalation would have to include a deal to freeze the North’s nuclear program.
There are signs that secret channels used by the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson are still open. This improbable redemption of a nuclear rogue state, though, would mean a slight alteration of the status quo. It would also hand China a huge advantage in the region.
Finally, the third option is to admit this is an insoluble problem, and turn Kim into a rational actor and let the North keep its bomb. Kim’s regime would then be warned that any attempt to use it would result in “fire and fury”.
Call it the art of the non-deal.
Bomb the Olympics or the US is a no show; stay tuned for Trump drama. P.S. Trump is a one trick pony, an obsolete, but dangerous zero sum game player.
I vote for option #3 as options #1 and #2 will never happen.The Chinese control all the levers of power behind the curtain and they use North Korea to keep everyone off balance. Let us not forget that the United States have bases in South Korea and Japan so I say this is the Chinese way of countering the Americans. Whatever happens the North Koreans are good for the "Weapon Business" which is a great business to be in.
The only authority that exists in NK, is the authority of the Chines Communist Party, which has given birth, fed and armed the NK dictatorship.
Just as Chairman Mao said, ‘Power comes from the barrel of a gun’, the NK dictatorship, is a very wrong-headed approach to power, and this is all at the feet of the Communist Party of China and its historical idealogical war with the USA.
As China starts to see the benefits of trade and economic growth, all these ideological subterfuges, need to be left behind.
Kim region was put in power by Stalin’s Russia. Kim the grand father discussed first on invasion of the South with Stalin, after that only he came to Mao’ China. Any dispute between Kim and Mao had to be resolved by Stalin. After the war, Kim always took Russia first approach, and played game to win financial support from both the communist powers. Until now , Kim continues playing too hands game, and Putin is willing to replace China in any disputes happened between Kim and Xi. Anyone of the two is in supporting, NK could survive the US pressure.
At the moment, there is a de facto "double freeze" in place. In his New Years speech, Kim said:
"The prevailing situation demands that now the north and the south improve the relations between themselves and take decisive measures for achieving a breakthrough for independent reunification without being obsessed by bygone days. No one can present an honourable appearance in front of the nation if he or she ignores the urgent demands of the times.
This year is significant both for the north and the south as in the north the people will greet the 70th founding anniversary of their Republic as a great, auspicious event and in the south the Winter Olympic Games will take place. In order to not only celebrate these great national events in a splendid manner but also demonstrate the dignity and spirit of the nation at home and abroad, we should improve the frozen inter-Korean relations and glorify this meaningful year as an eventful one noteworthy in the history of the nation.
First of all, we should work together to ease the acute military tension between the north and the south and create a peaceful environment on the Korean peninsula.
As long as this unstable situation, which is neither wartime nor peacetime, persists, the north and the south cannot ensure the success of the scheduled events, nor can they sit face to face to have a sincere discussion over the issue of improving bilateral relations, nor will they advance straight ahead towards the goal of national reunification."
Then he said, and this is key to the "double freeze"
The north and the south should desist from doing anything that might aggravate the situation, and they should make concerted efforts to defuse military tension and create a peaceful environment."
That means a freeze on military activity.
Speech is here; AT should publish it. You can’t find it in the West.
http://www.kcna.kp/kcna.user.home.retrieveHomeInfoList.kcmsf#this
MAYBE NUKES ARE A HUGE HOAX NUKELIES.ORG
NORTH KOREA IS A SECRET VASSAL STATE OF THE US
https://journal-neo.org/2016/11/01/north-korea-is-an-pentagon-vassal-state/
MAYBE NUKES ARE FAKE http://WWW.NUKELIES.ORG
Sir,Any solution that could generate a tectonic shift in the Asia-Pacific geopolitical chessboard in Korean Peninsula is unwelcome to China Russia. At the sometime US needs foothold in that region by having permanent chaos to serve her national interest to contain China and Russia!