The reality is North Korea has nuclear weapons – perhaps thermonuclear bombs – and they are probably miniaturized enough to fit atop its missiles, one of which will soon be, if not already, able to reach all parts of the continental United States.
Washington missed an opportunity for a preventive strike that would have stopped the North Korean nuclear effort – or at least seriously set it back – in 1994.
The decision to not take action was based on the advice of a former US president who believed that the United States would be able to successfully negotiate with Pyongyang.
While the military and political environments on the Korean Peninsula have evolved, American policy towards the North has not changed since 1991.
And by relying upon diplomacy to deal with Pyongyang during that time, Washington has failed to get North Korea to cease developing nuclear weapons, and now to give them up.
The state of affairs can now be summarized as the three “no’s” of North Korea:
First, as Pyongyang has stated on many occasions, there will no negotiating away its nuclear weapons or missiles. Second, there will be no collapse or internal revolution bringing down the Kim Jong Un regime. And third, there will be no participation by North Korea in any reunification effort headed by South Korea – with or without any of Seoul’s allies.
No negotiations
With its nuclear and missile programs in their crowning stages, Pyongyang has absolutely no reason to negotiate with either Seoul or Washington. The goal of nuclear deterrence is finally in its grasp. As the North has often declared, its nuclear weapons and missiles are the only guarantors of its existence and they will not be given up.
Neither has Pyongyang indicated any interest in Beijing’s “freeze for freeze” proposal in which the North would stop developing its nuclear weapons and testing missiles in exchange for ceasing war games on the peninsula by Seoul and its allies. That is an unequal trade.
The North already has the ability to hold South Korea and much of Japan hostage to its conventional weapons. With the addition of nuclear weapons and longer-range missiles, the real target has been openly identified: the United States, as Pyongyang has asserted not only in the past but recently as well.
No revolution
Despite the appalling conditions endured by average North Korean citizens, there are no indications that the regime itself is anything but stable. While citizens have every reason to be dissatisfied and unhappy, the conditions for a successful uprising simply do not exist.
There is no critical mass of would-be revolutionaries, but even if a sufficient number did exist, communication among citizens is restricted and monitored. And heavy surveillance by authorities further prevents any organization or coordination of a revolution.
Above all, there is such a lack of knowledge about how the regime functions that it would be an insurmountable challenge to overthrow the Kim dictatorship from the grass-roots level.
And while some citizens may be holding in their discontent, it is because they are well aware of what punishment awaits protesters: either summary execution or sentences to prison camps, which often enough are death sentences in slow motion.
No reunification
There are reasons why there will be no reunification of the two Koreas any time soon. To begin, there is no significant economic or political engagement with the North. No trust has been established for such endeavors to proceed, so engaging Pyongyang in commercial activities such as reopening the Kaesong Industrial Complex is thus premature.
Another condition necessary for reunification is for at least one of the two states contemplating reunification to be in crisis. If both nations are stable – and both appear to be – there is no motivation to change the status quo. Predictions that the North will collapse or experience a destabilizing insurrection has been shown to be nothing more than wishful thinking for decades.
There needs to be some power-sharing agreement, however that doesn’t exist today and there seems to be nothing like that in the works. Moreover, for such an arrangement to work, compromises that would either be unacceptable to either side or cumbersome to deal with – “one country, two systems” for example – would be required.
Finally, for any reunification attempt to succeed, there would have to be some third-party guarantor of the process to prevent outside interference and to look out for the interests of both North and South Korea. Finding such a state acceptable to all other nations in the region looks an impossible task.
Detente only option
Military options by Washington are not possible because of the intolerable collateral costs to South Korea – and quite possibly to Japan as well.
Unfortunately, as the past 25-plus years undeniably show, diplomacy has not worked. The reality is that Pyongyang has nuclear weapons, it has the means to deliver them, and it will continue to exist for the foreseeable future.
The US established successful détente first with Moscow and later with Beijing as those two countries developed their nuclear weapons and delivery systems.
The US learned how to coexist with two nuclear adversaries in the past, and now needs to do that with Pyongyang. Washington must revert to realistic diplomacy. There is no other acceptable choice.
"And by relying upon diplomacy to deal with Pyongyang during that time, Washington has failed to get North Korea to cease developing nuclear weapons, and now to give them up."
In fact, there was an agreement in the 1990s for NK to give up its nuclear weapons program. In exchange for two light water reactors and a guaranteed supply of oil, it agreed to shut down its plutonium reactor which it did. The US sabotaged this agreement and eventually NK resumed its weapons program.
oh, I think the united states should surrender.
Since the DPRK is now a fully-fledged nuclear power with ICBMs that can strike any city in USA, it is time for the UNSC to lift all sanctions on the DPRK, and for USA to remove all its soldiers out of Korea and to compensate the Koreans for all the wrongs that the USA has done to the Koreans. Should these measures not be taken, USA is putting at risk the lives of tens of millions of its population.
The wrongs that the USA has done to the Koreans include:
1) The invasion of Korea in 1950,
2) The murder of millions of Koreans by Americans between 1950 and 1953,
3) The destruction of tens of trillions of infrastructures in Korea by the Americans between 1950 and 1953,
4) The occupation of the southern part of Korea by American troops from 1953 to the present,
5) The rape and murder of thousands of Koreans girls by the Americans between 1953 to the present,
6) The hardships caused to the Koreans as a result of sanctions imposed on North Korea by the UNSC, such sanctions being induced by USA, and,
7) The moral and psychological damages caused to the Koreans as a result of military drills carried by USA in and around Korea.
Why is President Trump not barking at Ukraine who provided the ballistic rocket technology? Why not barking at Japan who sold cranes to North Korea enabling horizontal fueling of the rockets, reducing the launch time significantly? Why not bark at Pakistan who sold centrifuges to North Korea? Ukraine, Japan, and Pakistan is US friends.
President Trump seems to be barking up the wrong tree. Anyway, Mr. Kim seems to be happy going and not scared. The Rocket man know President Trump barks more than he bites.
Finally, the voice of reason.
The US has nothing to fear from North Korea. But China, South Korea, Australia and Japan have plenty to fear. Why the US is taking the lead is only because we have the weapons and military might. We should arm the real potential victims and take a back seat.
North Korea has no reason to attack China or South Korea or Australia or Japan. Unlike the murderous USA, North Korea is not attacking and will not attack any country. But North Korea will defend itself if it is attacked.
Michael Chan
You are right of course. The real thorn in the American`s claws are that North Korea has defied it for the last 65 years and are still functioning. Given US history over the past 70 years it is perfectly understandable why North Korea found it an urgent requirement to develope nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them. The US has never stopped threatening that country with invasion or bombing back to the stoneage. Now if the US attacks Americans will suffer their own bloody nose in at least a couple of major cities going up in a radio active cloud of dust. The question is , Is the US willing to risk New York and Washington DC just to satisfy the Beltway Warriors need to have North Korea kneel and kiss the ground at their feet. Personally i think the Americans tend to be courageous only when fighting wars inside other countries, not so much when their own country can suffer some devastating blows which it will if it were to attack that small nation.
Thomas Daniel Kuhn Frankly you and Chan are paranoid and I realiuze you can’t think or see because you are spo full of dung.
Art Laramee, I think that you are paranoid and unable to see the truth. Why should North Korea attack Australia, for example. North Koreans are not cannibals and murderers like the Americans. NorthKoreans are not stupid like the Americans. Kim JongUm is not a dotard like Donald Trump is a dotard. North Korea do not have mad murderers like John McCain or Lindsey Graham.
Just a thought:
If we can accept France, the UK, India, Pakistan, as registered second tier nuclear powers, what’s so wrong with having a 「nuclear Korea」 as yet a another France, another UK, another India, another Pakistan, to balance things out in this world?
I mean seriously, what does America have to fear from a civilized society as Korea when an independently nuclear powered Japan would be much more worrisome for the Americans over what I would deem as “retribution” to even things up for Nagasaki and Hiroshima?
I just don’t undersrand American logic sometimes…
.
i wish you could predict tge future but since we cannot..you cant blame the U.S. for not acting on it before..
(Re we have the weapons and military might)
Typical Americana macho and chest thumping….
“Kindly do us a favor then if you think ‘WE CHINESE HAVE MORE TO FEAR of THE GUY’ than you Americano’s does.”
In other words, go in there all guns blazing and do a Saddam Heussein and a Momar Quadafi on the guy. We will surely appreciate and thank you for the favor if what you say, or insist, is the truth.
So, what are you waiting for? An opportunity for WW-3 to start before you hit the guy for us?
Consider the above as an 「ALTERNATIVE THOUGHT」 as Trump’man puts it…
.
(Re The real thorn in the American`s claws)
I beg to differ from that notion….
My book: the real thorn in the American`s claws Is NOT because the Kim’s are still surviving…
The real thorn in the American`s claws are 「THE PHOBIA」 that「AMERICA’S SWAMP」have of “THE ULTIMATE REUNIFICATION of THE KOREAN NATION” which will be brought on by “NATIONALISM” which in turn is brought on by the pride generated by ..
“A NUCLEAR STATUS KOREA.”
.
(Re think US should surrender)
Hey hey hey! My kids and my Grandkids are full fledge Gringos ;)… No way I will allow any of them to raise their hands high in surrender…. But, I love sarcasm… Sarcasm makes the day go great as so more sarcasm please… Sarcasm is the food stuffs that neurishes our souls…
I dislike responding to idiots but today it amuses me to. The United States has nothing to fear from North Korea. But we have plenty to fear from Russia and China. Not that those countries could harm us without harm to themselves which would be stupid, when we are not provoking them by harming them in the first place.
But the threat to China is a North Korea that causes a conflagration creating refugees and drawing countries into a war that would be a distraction from the BRI. China doesn’t want this and neither does Russia. China, Russia and the US are rational actors whose behavior is somewhat predictable. North Korea is not in that category. Therefore North Korea is a threat. The more powerful their weapons, the more oif a threat.
North Korea is an international player, sharing nuclear technology and missile technioology with other rougue countries like Iran for example. They even test weaponry for Iran.
Perhaps you screwballs think like the puerile North Koreans and would like to see Iran with nuclear wweapons, Then we will have Saudi Arabia, other Middle eastern countries with nuclkear weapons, and South Korea, Japan and Australia with nuclear weapons. The more the merrier to bring on Armageddon. You f*cking saps aren’t worth the time to write to but I did it anyways.
(Dislike respinding to idiots)
Look, the press (which = elements of the swamp) labeled the Donald an idiot yet it was the press’s constant bashing which put him in office.. Ironic isn’t it?
Under such a circumstance, which do you think is more of an idiot? Was it Trump or was it the idiot (or idiots) who labelec him an idiot who is really more the idiot?
I betcha he’s rolling on the floor laughing his arse off this very minute on that one..