The intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that North Korea fired on Tuesday probably used a ‘very small payload’ that lightened it to increase it’s range, according to analysis posted on Wednesday by 38 North, a respected website dedicated to analysis of North Korea.
The assessment by noted rocket expert Michael Elleman contradicts official statements by Pyongyang that its Hwasong-15 ICBM carried a “super-heavy warhead” that’s capable of hitting any target in the US. Though the launch demonstrates the North’s progress in developing a workable ICBM, the analyst says “a viable ICBM capable of reaching the west coast of the US mainland still remains about a year away.”
4 Soviet-design engines
Elleman notes that the higher apogee and longer flight time suggest that the Hwasong-15 is similar to a Hwasong-14 missile fired on July 28. But unlike its predecessor, he believes it has a second stage powered by four small engines derived from the Soviet R-27 missile instead of just two.
His analysis dovetails with that of post-launch findings posted by David Wright of the Union of Concerned Scientists. “If the Hwasong-15 launched on November 28 had been flown on a normal trajectory, it would have reached distances perhaps as far as 13,000 km, which is reasonably consistent with the findings posted by David Wright of the Union of Concerned Scientists,” Elleman wrote.
But most importantly, Elleman agrees with Wright’s assessment that the Hwasong-14 and -15 missiles tested thus far likely carried very small payloads, which exaggerate the range that can be achieved with a North Korean nuclear weapon.
“Indeed, the engineering model used for this analysis indicates the missiles were tested with a 150 kg payload,” Elleman said. “It is doubtful North Korea can fashion a nuclear weapon that weighs less than 100 kg.”
Despite Pyongyang’s claim that it has mastered the intricacies of warhead miniaturization and re-entry, Elleman questions if the regime can currently build a 50 kg re-entry vehicle (not counting payload) that can survive the high temperatures and other rigors of descending into the earth’s atmosphere before striking its target. He says this casts doubt on whether North Korea’s latest ICBM can even reach Seattle.
Elleman concludes that North Korea still needs to conduct many more tests to establish the missile’s performance and reliability.
Why assume that the payload is small? One is quite sure that the designers will not have made such a simple mistake repeatedly. Together with the recent, massive nuclear test it is clear that North Korea has a strategic ICBM capability now. It will be prudent for USA to sit down, hold peace talks amd perhaps fulfill its obligations under the Agreed Framework signed on October 21, 1994 by U.S. Ambassador Robert Gallucci and DPRK Vice-minister Kang Sok-ju
Summary: Freeze of North Korean nuclear program, leading to denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and initial Peace agreement between the United States and North Korea.
US agreed to :
Deliver 500,000 tons of heavy oil annually to DPRK as an alternative energy
* Make arrangements for two 1000 MWe light water reactors to DPRK with target date of 2003.
* Provide DPRK with formal assurance against the use of nuclear weapons by U.S.