Iran has, predictably enough, taken a hard line on the US decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. There were public demonstrations in several Iranian cities following Friday prayers and statements by President Hassan Rouhani and other senior politicians. Notably, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari, warned: “Al-Quds (Jerusalem) will be the place where the Zionist regime will be buried.”
It was Turkey’s reaction that set the mind thinking that the ground beneath our feet is shifting, however. President Recep Erdogan used exceptional language in his response, calling Israel a “terrorist” state. His stance is important for a variety of reasons. Turkey is currently chairing the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and has called for an emergency summit in Istanbul on Wednesday. This puts Erdogan in the driving seat.
The OIC has traditionally kowtowed to Saudi Arabia. But the Saudi regime finds itself on the defensive at the moment. The unsavory talk in the bazaar is that King Salman and the Crown Prince have played footsie with Trump and Jared Kushner. Erdogan hears bazaar gossip, for sure. Will the OIC recognize Jerusalem as the capital of the state of Palestine? This is a possibility.
Both Iran and Turkey repudiate the notion of Jerusalem being Israel’s capital. Iran has brought into play the politics of “resistance,” whereas Erdogan stresses “We will continue our struggle decisively within the law and democracy.” The distinction must be noted – but then, so must the degree of convergence.
Iran and Turkey have both long wished for an end to Saudi Arabia calling the shots in the Muslim Middle East. Now that the issue of Jerusalem has come to the fore, the Saudi regime must be wary of being seen to coordinate with Israel, or dancing to Trump’s tune.
The Saudi regime is also grappling with the quagmire in Yemen, where it is shedding “Muslim blood.” Pressure will now increase to end the war in there. Rouhani put forth on Sunday two preconditions to normalize ties with Saudi Arabia – stop “bowing” to Israel and, secondly, end the war in Yemen.
For Erdogan, Jerusalem becomes another platform to advance his strategic defiance of the US. Of course, the trial in a Manhattan federal court to discredit Erdogan now becomes almost an irrelevance. If pushed any further, Erdogan may hit back by breaking Turkey’s relations with Israel, as he has hinted at already. Doing so will, of course, make him a cult hero on the Arab Street.
To be sure, the damage to American prestige and credibility in the Middle East has grave implications for the Syrian situation. Unsurprisingly, President Vladimir Putin was due to land in Ankara late on Monday for a face-to-face conversation with Erdogan.
Erdogan is furious about the Pentagon’s continued supply of weapons to the Kurdish militia. Top Turkish officials have openly threatened that they’ll teach the US a painful lesson. Neither Turkey nor Russia (nor Iran) wants an open-ended US military presence in Syria. They may well seek to keep the US out in the cold via talks in Astana.
The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, has ruled out any prospect of the US gaining – under whatever pretext – access to Syria’s Mediterranean coast. He said point-blank on Friday: “There are no plans with the United States on this specific region (Idlib) of Syria. I believe that’s totally counterproductive.” In sum, Turkey, Russia and Iran will ultimately decide how long the US military presence in Syria is tolerated.
The power dynamic is likely to change further than expected, since the Jerusalem issue effectively debilitates the Saudis. Ironically, the Syrian peace process probably has its greatest chance of success (on Russian-Turkish-Iranian terms, of course.)
What’s happening in Iraq and Syria are also out in the open. Libya, Egypt and Yemen are also experiencing serious problems. This Jerusalem step shows how some have been taking advantage of this situation. We need to be vigilant as Muslim
Erdogan openly links the US decision on Jerusalem with its policies on other regional conflicts. He said on Sunday: “What’s happening in Iraq and Syria are also out in the open. Libya, Egypt and Yemen are also experiencing serious problems. This Jerusalem step shows how some (read US and Israel) have been taking advantage of this situation. We need to be vigilant as Muslims.”
The Arab states have tended to pay mere lip service to the Palestine issue. Now, for the first time, the baton of leadership is passing into non-Arab (Turkish-Iranian) hands, and Palestine is now a Muslim rather than an Arab issue – something Iran has always sought. It is a historic transition that underscores the diminished Saudi clout in regional politics. Arguably, the sectarian card becomes useless now in terms of isolating Iran.
Ultimately, then, the question must be posed: Who really stands to gain from Trump’s decision on Jerusalem? Evidently, like in the Boyzone song, words are all Israel’s got. On the other hand, Israel’s pet project – the rollback of Iran – runs into headwinds and may have to be mothballed. Any Israeli intervention in Syria to counter Iran’s presence becomes almost suicidal in such a supercharged situation.
Erdogan has pledged that: “With the roadmap that we will determine (at the OIC summit), we will show that the realization of this decision (moving the US embassy) will not be easy at all.” He means it. If the US’ game plan was to get the Saudis to open a parallel track and push Jared Kushner’s peace plan, Erdogan will shoot it down. Turkey, Iran and Qatar are sure to promote Hamas as the authentic voice of the Palestinian people.
Trump hates to be a “loser.” Erdogan says the US president is pandering to his evangelical constituency. Does that make Trump a “winner”? The US election in 2020 seems light years away.
The neocon Zionists have agained play up their disrespect for International Rule of Laws while at the same time, compel other smaller underlings like Turkey and Iran to respect the International Rule of Laws. The Jerusalam issue will galvanise the Turko-Iranian interests into the Russian Pivot in the Levant.
A well reasoned analysis.
I am not surprised at all by Trump’s decision, given the high proportion of Jews in Trump’s circles (even during the campaign for presidency, as I’ve illustrated in another post).
Of course, I wouldn’t considier Trump to be truly capable of making his own decisions. Trump doesn’t have the knowledge, the expertise, and above all, the power to formulate foreign policies.
America has been sort of an Israeli hitman for decades. That’s not about to change under Trump!
One can hardly understand this bogy of evangelical constituency. When Trump anonced the Jerusalem affair Haaretz also came with this bizare theory.It is only diversion to protect the Jewish lobby from allegations.But for Adelson, Sabaan AIPAC and othe Jewish outfits the Evenglical constituancy is of no reckening.It is as inconsequential as the Catholic church when it concerns Israel.After all the entire law making apparatus of America is under the pay rolls of these pro Israeli cabal to take Evaangelicals seripously.Not only the law maker bodies but other establishments like media banking etc are also under Israeli thumps so much so that at times one doubts if they are realy Americans at all.If their loyalty is to Israel or America.
As this reader did point out earlier in a post some where else the ultimate winner in this Trump Netinyahu Adelson fiasco, most probably will be Iran.Netinyahu and Trump, this reader thinks have overplayed.Only time will tell if he is right or wrong.
Art Laramee Agree with your perception of Trump generally. Not so much your take on this, anymore than I accept much of the pundit narratives on his other actions, domestic and international.
My take? Trump is seeking to have people everywhere take it on themselves to better coexist, as you say, with those they consider enemies or opponents, for the betterment of everybody. Those who choose to think a man with an ego the size of Russia ran for the highest, most powerful office on the globe simply to be just another President doing things that only half the American population, or of the globe for that matter, will give him credit continue to refuse to acknowledge what has always driven the man.
Trump is well aware that facts and reason do not stand a chance against political dogma, rhetoric and emotion. If taking the world to the brink is what it takes for powerful, yet totally irrational leaders to reconsider their positions, my guess is that he is prepared to do it.
Jeff Keeran No. Just repeating a lot of stuff thrown against a wall with a hope that some of it sticks. Set aside your contempt for just a few moments and take in an understanding, as opposed to a comprehension, of his election platform. Those are his vision for a better life for all Americans.
The rest is the inevitable sideshow that must be endured by you and I and most others around the globe, while he tries to get to where he has been trying to take the nation. Unravelling the corrosive affects of entrenched divisive and destructive bipartisan politics of the previous 35 years will not be done with business as usual Jeff.
You are undoubtedly correct about the loser smear. Not only will he not allow himself to be perceived as a loser, he refuses to accept that it will be applied to the nation as in disrespect for those symbols that embody the nation’s honor and pride. For him, all else are issues that citizens must find a way to sort through for themselves at the State and local levels.
The wily trumpeter and the canny neoconZionists have calculated meticulously that there are going to be a small knee jerk reaction from the Arabs, Hamas and Wahhabi-Sunni Ummah led by the Saudis. They too would be meticulous enough to have factored in any trump card that would have been slipped through into the hands of Russia, Iran and Turkey.
Trump is most certainly pandering to his evangelical base. The evangelicals have embraced Trump, despite all of his moral failings, because of his "tough stance" on Islam, his rhetoric on Israel, and his new found pro-life positions. They want to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel because it fulfills a biblical prophecy and ushers in the end times. Trump certainly hates to be perceived as a "loser" and 2020 feels like it will never get here. Am I reading the wrong paragraph?
Maybe the arabs and jews were the only ones who needed them?
President Recep Erdogan used exceptional language in his response, calling Israel a “terrorist” state. Some said it finally. Bhadrakumar in the midst of corrupt and exceptionally prejudiced media, is just remarkable.
No wonder all prophets were sent to Arabs and Jews and no one was sent to Brazil, China or Russia!
I don’t think you are correct. Many portray Trump as ignorant or a buffoon. They underrate him at their own disadvantage. He has been quite effective for a buffoon. I think Trump recognizes the issues in the Middle East and the limitations of the Uniterd States to affect them and is therefore cutting our losses and aligning ther US with only those re;iable and likely to survive allies. Iran is pursuing a revival of the Persian Empire anf Turkey is pursuing a revival of the Ottoman Empire. Russia and China wish to co-exist. Who knows what is realistic.
There is no greater evidence of the complete failure of the US political system that it is now in the position of having privatized its foreign policy in a very critical part of the world. It is an area which requires statecraft of the highest order which recognizes the delicate nature of the situation. So who is running US policy in the area? Why, none other than the president’s 30-something son-in-law, who is, like Trump, is a New York real estate tycoon but not even a government official. He and Netanyahu are actually running the show. They are working with Muhammed bin Salman, the King-in-waiting of Saudi Arabia who is another young ignoramus who is over his head. Together, they have blundered into the swamp in a way they do not understand, but Bhadrakumar certainly does and now so do his readers.
The Kurds, and the US geostrategy using them, is totally dependent on the good will of Syria, Iraq, and Turkey. Access to the Kurdish areas MUST pass through one of these countries. Normally, when the US conducts its operations abroad, it has access to the sea or a friendly country with which is shares compatible policy aims. This situation does not exist here.
Today, the US probably conducts its operations from Incerlik in Turkey, but the Erdogon can shut that down if he wish and the US would be unable to do anything about it. Recall that Turkey refused US request to use the base in the war against Iraq in 2003.
Arabs got 100 years to show the leadership, they faile miseerabley as in past, when Arab failed to lead Muslim world Allah took the leadership and give to outside Arabs. now they fail and will be loosers again.
Good to see USA sidelining itself. It’s not doing any good anyhow. The struggle against Apartheid is an international issue that needs anti-racist leaders. USA sided with Apartheid South Africa too. It’s not purely a Trump issue.
And so we read today that Putin has suddenly announced Russian withdrawal from the Middle East and that a delegation from Bahrain is visiting Israel. In the meantime the U.S. has no intention of leaving the MIddle East.And then there is the ever growing presence of the Kurds to contend with. I would think that Mr B’s forecast is far from certain.
What might otherwise have been a totally insightful analysis had to be diminished by the complete lack of comprehension evident in the final paragraph.
Excellent analysis again from MKB. My favorite.
The current situration is expsoing Saudi Arabia. They cannot be trusted. They want to hold the Arab leadership and also be friend with the enemies of the Arabs. People are getting to see the real face of the Saudi.
For Turkey and Erdogan their interest will come first, before interests of Arabs or Muslims.
Your columns are insightful Mr. Bhadrakumar — I find them to be a meaningful read on Asia Times. Your practical experience as a career diplomat and knowledge shows. So different from the occasional ramblings of a certain Spengler, when he speaks outside his domain in economics.
lets talk here,with history first before we talk the next,look,for a start it is now impossible to defeat iran,because it has now entered all the way to lebanon via iraq,secondly the saudis and emiratis are a false pretenders in the gulf,a military rule like in egypt and pakistan would have been a better option for israel and the usa to deal with if there were in power in the emirates and riyadh..the two clowns are playing in the hands of all parties and have created an never ending solution..to change the entire structure then you have to go back 100 years but that will allow one thing to make the turks the ultimate power in the region..it is part of nato,secondly,turkey is allways open,but turkey hates foreign interference,..so get rid of saudi as the main country in the gulf,make turkey in the western camp,and job done jerusalem becomes the city for all