For perhaps a quarter of the world’s population, President Donald Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem on December 6 was humiliating. Just for that reason it makes Middle East peace more probable. More than President Jimmy Carter, who brokered the Israeli-Egyptian peace deal of 1979, President Trump is likely to be remembered as the American president who contributed most to peace.
Wars end not when the loser is defeated, but rather when the loser is humiliated. Throughout history, as I argued in a 2016 survey of ancient and modern wars, losers have fought on until they lack the manpower to fill their depleted ranks. Typically that occurs after 30% of military-age men are dead, as in France during the Napoleonic Wars, the South in the American Civil War, or Germany in the Second World War. The losing side will not abandon hostilities until all those who want to fight to the death have had the opportunity to do so — unless it is humiliated before the physical exhaustion of its resources has run its course.
That is why the use of atomic weapons against Japan well may have been an act of mercy. The American fire-bombing campaign had already wrecked most of Japan’s cities and killed far more civilians than perished at Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and Japan might have sustained far more damage in a conventional resolution through bombing and an eventual invasion. Atomic weapons humiliated the Japanese by displaying the incomparable superiority of Western technology and the pointlessness of further resistance.
There are some defeats whose memory is too painful to bear. As an executive of Bank of America, I spent considerable time at its Charlotte headquarters. My Carolina colleagues needed only a Bourbon or two to lapse into obsessive rehearsals of Civil War battles which, by rights, they should have won. They sounded goofy, but that’s what happens when you sacrifice nearly a third of your young men.
For the Palestinian Arabs and many other Muslims, the many defeats that Israel has inflicted on Arab armies — in 1948, 1956, 1967 and 1973, as well as in smaller engagements subsequently — are too painful to bear. How is it possible that a Jewish population of only 600,000 defeated five Arab armies in the 1948 War of Independence? Or that Israel crushed the combined might of the Arab countries in a few days in June 1967? Palestinian Arabs refuse to accept their past humiliations, believing rather that the Jewish presence in the region is a temporary aberration, and that the Jewish State will be eliminated before long. Daniel Polisar reviewed some 300 polls of Arab opinion in a 2015 survey, and noted that a full 80% of Palestinian Arabs believe that the Jews have no rights to the land whatever.
Even if the Jews have the Mediterranean coast, they do not have Jerusalem, their ancient capital and the holiest of Jewish sites, the Arabs console themselves. They do not have it because the nations of the world refuse to say that they have it. To state the obvious, namely that Jerusalem is and will remain the capital of the State of Israel, is a humiliating dictum. If the so-called micro-aggressions now abhorred at American universities are pinpricks, the declaration that Jerusalem is Jewish is a stab in the heart.
Israel, to be sure, is more powerful than all its Arab neighbors put together, and in extreme circumstances has between 100 and 300 nuclear weapons, according to the defense agency Jane’s, roughly on a par with Great Britain. The Arab strategy to destroy Israel is indirect. Israel is ringed with missiles aimed at its critical infrastructure and population centers, including 150,000 in the hands of Hezbollah. Anti-missile systems such as the short-range Iron Dome neutralized primitive ballistic missiles from Gaza during the 2014 conflict, but Hezbollah has thousands of precision-guided missiles that are harder to intercept. The objective is to draw Israel into a conflict where the Jewish state causes massive collateral damage in order to suppress missile attacks, and the “international community” reacts with horror and forces a “settlement” on Israel, requiring a withdrawal from the West Bank. That would give Israel’s enemies firing positions closer to its national airport and largest cities. Eventually the debilitating effect of encirclement and rocket attacks would make the Jewish State unviable, or so the Arab side believes.
By fostering the hope that Israel might be defeated and eliminated, the world community encourages the Palestinian Arabs and their sponsors in Tehran and Ankara to pursue a long-term war strategy
This is a dodgy strategy at best, but most Palestinian Arabs simply cannot bear to resign themselves to a small and mediocre state on the border of a far more powerful Jewish neighbor. It should be remembered that the Jewish population accepted a far smaller state in 1948 than they have now in order to gain independence, and would have stayed within its borders had the armies of Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon not attacked the infant State of Israel. The Jews simply wanted a state, even a small one with a breadth of just 15 kilometers at its narrowest point. If the Palestinian Arabs had wanted a state, they could have had one from President Bill Clinton and Prime Minister Ehud Barak in July 2000.
So intimidated is the world community by Muslim anguish over the State of Israel that it humors the delusion that Israel can be destroyed, specifically by refusing to acknowledge that Jerusalem is the capital of Israel. By fostering the hope that Israel might be defeated and eliminated, the world community encourages the Palestinian Arabs and their sponsors in Tehran and Ankara to pursue a long-term war strategy.
President Trump has changed all that, by acknowledging Jerusalem as Israel’s de jure as well as its de facto capital. The humiliation this will occasion in the Arab world cannot be underestimated. But it is the sine qua non of peace. Before they are ready to make peace, the Palestinian Arabs will have to drink the bitter draught of defeat to the dregs, and admit to themselves that their problems are not due to the depredations of imperialists, but are of their own making. The Jews have been doing this for 2,600 years, since the fall of the First Temple in 587 B.C.E. Taking responsibility for their own failings, in fact, is one of the secrets of Jewish success. In the short run, Trump’s declaration may provoke the occasional act of violence. In the longer view, he has indicated the only possible path to peace.
IN ur mind arabs will end Israel. Pls wake up from your illusion. God bless Israel n Trump for standing truth.
Excellent article and True. The Arab side will not seek peace until they accept that they have been defeated – i.e. accept that they cannot destroy the Jewish State. Palestinian leadership is still nowhere near that conclusion and is still actively at war against the continued existence of the Jewish State. That is why there is no peace process and why the 2-State solution is a sham and deception. Israelis, almost 48% of whom were willing to give it a shot in 1994, are now almost universally cynical about the possibility. This is the natural result of 23 years of intifada and rocket attacks and terrorism and celebration by Palestinians of the deaths of Jews.
Meanwhile, the US State Department and European governments still believe the "peace process" lie, while Arab governments, including the Palestinian Authority, use it as a tool of war to isolate and harm Israel diplomatically.
Israel used to beg the Palestinians/Arabs to come to the peace negotiating table. Now they just play the game.
Peace won’t happen until Israel defeats the Palestinians so decisively that the Palestinians for the first time themselves ask to come to the negotiating table. The defeat must be not only military but must include Israel having zero tolerance for Palestinian Nazism, racism, incitement and denigration of Judaism, Jewish history and Jewish holy places (Jerusalem, Temple Mount, Schem, Hebron). For instance, the "shrine to the martyrs" (a celebration of terrorists who have killed Jews) located on the Temple Mount, a stone’s throw away from Jews’ holiest site, is a symbol to the Arabs of the Jews’ weakness and unwillingness to stand up for their own pride. It is read as an invitation to continue the war against the Jews. Likewise, the Dome of the Rock itself – to the Arabs it is a symbol of the defeat of the Jews and of the weakness of the Jews. It’s image is used constantly and consistently as a call to war against the Jews by the PLO leadership. You can see it throughout the social media campaigns that called for the knife intifada and the car intifada for instance. You should expect this war to go on in perpetuity until the Jews are willing to stand up and say, "You can have Mecca and Medina, but Jerusalem and the Temple Mount, Joseph’s Tomb in Schem, and the Tombs of our Matriarchs and Patriarchs in Hebron are ours."
This is the context in which President Trump’s recognizing Israel’s capital is a positive step toward the assertion of Jewish pride and Jewish permanency in the land of Israel, and is step toward the end of this war. This is what the State Department "experts" and professional israel critics in the media and at the UN don’t understand about the Middle East.
peace prevails when two warring sides endorse it. Israel is stronger today & may claim that President Trump was right. But yester years were very bad for Israrl & there can’t be a guaranty for its safe future. By now neighboring countries werr willing to accomodate Israel with pre 1967 borders. Now the region may have another troubled era.
The truth
The Arabs are coming to realize that if Israel is a problem for them, it is way on the bottom of their lists of problems. They need to fix their own failed states, poverty, and illiteracy. They need to worry about the Iranians and the Turks dreaming to reestablish their empires on Arab lands. Despite all the brainwashing they’ve been put through by those hoping to distract them from their real oppressors, the Arabs are starting to wake up to the fact that Israel is simply interested in maintaining soveriegnty over a tiny sliver of the Middle East.
The Jews will have their ups and downs as they have during history. Their final destruction is prophesied in the coming of their king the Anti Christ to be destroyed after the second coming of Jesus Christ for good.
For the Muslims humiliation is never going to be an end point. The author is totally wrong in saying so. Had humiliation been an answer to war then the humiliation of the Germans during the treaty of Versailles would have prevented the second World War. Had humiliation for the Muslims been a end to war then the Mongol invasion of the Chaliphate in Baghdad would have been the end.
Muslims are at a low point where a significant people have been pushed to the wall and have nothing to lose. The world should remember that bigger empires like Britian and USSR fell like dominos. It is just a matter of time. History has proved time an again that no power lasts for ever. Currently Israel and USA are two names of a single entity.
Unfortunately the failure of UN like the league of nations before the second World War may pave the way of history repeating itself.
AND this time around it would be a nuclear one any in a war Israel would never be able to survive.
Myriam Obadia As usual, your types are so comfortable with LYING.
Russia makes a clean differentiation between West and East Jerusalem, as this division has been determined in many international documents.
So, Russia recognizes West Jerusalem as Jewish, and East Jerusalem as Palestinian future capital. Nothing new here.
What Trump has done is recognized the ENTIRE Jerusalem Israeli capital. Since that means recognizing OCCUPIED East Jerusalem as Israeli territory, does it also mean that the rest of the occupied territory — West Bank and Gaza are Israeli, by the same definition?
It is also not true to claim that Jerusalem was always Jewish capital. While under Greek rule, Jews were not a majority population of Jerusalem. Romans have at first promoted Jewish power over Jerusalem in order to oust Greeks and remove Greeks from administrative and other empire managing position. But, as it often happens, Jewish establishment fell out with Romans, and the outcome was a devastating war that not only resulted in the elimination of Jewish role in the Levant but in a period during which no Jews were allowed to live in Jerusalem. That changed only with Arab occupation of Jerusalem. It was Arabs that more or less forces the Christian rulers of Jerusalem to allow at first a small number of Jewish families to live in Jerusalem, but that changed. Arab rulers found it helpful to bring Jews into Jerusalem to counter Christian influence, remove Christians from the management of the region, and empower Jews. And the old story has repeated itself. But it is far from truth that Jerusalem was always Jewish capital.
Little state of Israel defeated six Arab states
… you must be kiding!What is Israel without the USA.Fighting Israel is fighting the USA.Any idiot knows that.The USA must know that know that great nations must never humiliate small nation.Power is not in Atomic bombs but in fairness and honesty.Otherwise remember September in NYC.
David Goldman Don’t forget the 500,000 Finns driven out of Karelia and their land colonized by the Russians. Anyone remember?
Ah ? Recognizing Jerusalem as solely Isreali capital is wrong not because it angers the Muslim world. It’s wrong because it is against international law. It is an ilegal annexation. In your twisted reasoning the victims of crime deserve to be humiliated. How messed up is that.
Interesting how so many in the Middle East do not recognize history except through a tinted lens.
The Franks tried to take Arab lands nearly a thousand years ago, and they failed, just like the Jews will fail.
The Jewish enclave only survives because of massive financial and military aid from the US.
As the US decline gathers pace, the aid for Israel will dry up, and the Jews will go back to Europe, just like the franks did.
David Goldman So your suggesting that the US should use the same sort of tactics with Arabs, as the Nazis used on the Jews?
Shame on you.
Jerusalem declaration stoked fuel to oppressed Palestainians and lessened credibility of American President as a peace broker.Ihave an inkling that Palestainian people will be suspicious of U.S intention and that may jeopardise peace process.
Hidayat, from the little I’ve seen, David Goldman is pretty awful, but you are even worse, and you don’t help the Palestinian cause, you hurt it. Go crawl back under the proverbial rock.
David Goldman The Arabs of Judea and Samaria can wait a while? Wow! It’s only been 50 plus years. How long would you “wait” living under military rule? And you object to me characterizing you as a dehumanizer! As you would say, piffle.
I am not surprised that you are friends with Caroline Glick, that woman is pure evil.
Michael Becker How long will Trump and Bebe be in charge?
I think advocating independence will land you hot water in any country. Ask the Irish about that.
Freedom of speech should not be based on humiliation of others.
David Goldman No that’s because the Germany was humiliated after 1918 (We treated Weimar Republic as it was already the hitrd Reich and treated the 3rd Reich as it was the Weimar Republic) with Versailles Treaty and after, we reintegrate Germany in the family that Germans didn’t seek for any revenge and of course the fact that German was guilty for a lot of crimes (Shoah and others).
Well, I agree and people in real intelligence work believe you, but who are we against so, many?
My father fought in Germany and served there duing the beginning of the occupation, He said "They were beaten and knew they were beaten."
Are you going to get involved with the Jean Elshtain fund at CSU?
Vince Cheok Follow money+power and you are on the track of " Global Jewish conspiracy for domination " you may find some few Jewish men and women who will tell you that you are not crazy,because it exists,
Henry Livermore Abbott Cant you escape Trump? oh dear old child,
Andrew Keith Caroline is a hot granny, yummy,
David Ward Go on , Kill Manfred, WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?
President at night? or after middnight?
Yes, Your Ego! everytime you humiliate Muslims, you boost your Ego,
Israel is a European imposition upon the Arab world. It was imposed by England and France, both of whom were Colonial Empires who ruled that region. One of the first acknowledgements to create Israel is in the Balfour Declaration of 1917.
Israel’s wealth and power is maintained by the United States . Quoting Washington Report on Middle Eastern Affairs:
-"Since 1949 the U.S. has given Israel a total of $83.205 billion. The interest costs borne by U.S. tax payers on behalf of Israel are $49.937 billion, thus making the total amount of aid given to Israel since 1949 $133.132 billion. This may mean that U.S. government has given more federal aid to the average Israeli citizen in a given year than it has given to the average American citizen."
As for the destruction of the Temple of Jerusalem, the destruction done by Emperor Vespacian in 72 AD is the most significant for it ended classical Judaism when the central practic of animal sacrifices died with the destruction of the Temple. This also ended the practice of holding the Torah as the central book.
After Emperor Titus gave permission for Jews to build Synagogues in Europe the Talmud became the book of the Jews and the Synogogue a place of learning in addition to worship.
The reconstruction of the Temple became an issue under Emperor Julian "the Apostate" who gave permission and large funds to rebuild an elaborate Temple.
The Christians vehemtly protested mainly due to the fact that Christ cursed the temple and profesized its destruction, to even calling it the "Synagogue of Satan". It is believed that the reconstruction of the Temple of Jerusalem will herald the end of Christianity and the 2nd coming of Christ.
When the Jews began contruction earthqaukes took place, with fire erupting from the earth, lightening and high winds. The workers were burned to death. This is a historical fact, not myth. It had been recorded by Pagan Judaian and Christian historians.
ass-u-me
it’s a miracle that you can drag yourself out of bed each morning
Herb Glatter To whom is your comment addressed?
Why is that a despicable lie? Its an interpretation of events before the author’s birth. The event happened. It maybe interpreted in way you agree or disagree with. But why a lie?
Vince Cheok Nobody "gave" us anything. Judea is Jewish before Britain was British France was French and Japan japanese. It was taken away from us by force. It was destitute land read Mark Twain, no Jew lover. So we came back when the resistance to return was the least. The United Nations and the League of Nations recognized an obvious fact juyst as trump and putin recognize an obviuous fact. The Pallies are a bunch of invaders and they know it. How do I know? Its from their own mouth https://www.memri.org/tv/hamas-minister-interior-and-national-security-fathi-hammad-slams-egypt-over-fuel-shortage-gaza
Shawn Napper right. Like East Paris is not like West Paris. Like East London is not a part of West London. Like East Tokyo not being a part of the Real Japan. The fact that the muslim invaders have occupied Jerusalem does not make it any less Jewish.
Iran is Muslim. Mainstream Islam absolutely rejects Judaism and the Jewish claim to their own homeland. You may ask what is the antipathy of Indonesia to Israel, why is there no israel embassy in Indonesia. Answer: Islam. Iran raises the flag of muslim Dominance, which means the Jewish State cannot be because Islam is based on denial of Judaism and and the Jews.
Andrew Keith They dont have to wait. they can leave right now. the Muslim world is 1500 million strong. It can take two million Muslims. Israel at half a million took in a wave of a million refugee Jews with nary a complaint. and another 1.2 million refugees from the Soviet Union 40 years later. Let the Muslims take care of their brethren. Or maybe you do. Two million Muslims distributed among America 330 million sounds a piece of cake. Especially if Israel pays for it.
No need to wipe out anyone. We welcome any Jew to return to his homeland. We expect the muslims to do the same.
No one dehumanizes the Palestinians. However, Palestinians is a hoax. Dont listen to me Listen to them
https://www.memri.org/tv/hamas-minister-interior-and-national-security-fathi-hammad-slams-egypt-over-fuel-shortage-gaza
If you think a large Muslim minority is a recipe for peace, then a muslim majority is surely a recipe for peace. Like Syria. Like Iraq. Like Yemen. Like Egypt. Like Libya. Thank you no. I suggest as many Muslims live west of the Jordan as there are Jews east of the jordan.
The oppressed are the Jews who are threatened with death, and forced to accept their opressors as citizens while these opressors terrorise them.
Branka Alhamdy He doesn’t know nor does anyone else, however by closing options heading for that outcome, you will find out if you are on the right track. If not you just reverse the decision.
Trouble is people revert of religion rather than counting the cost. so think that saying means you have the truth rather than thinking things through, then acting.
Like the humiliation of the Germans after WW1 led to the rise of Hitler. Or more relevant context the humiliation of the Jews lead to the rise of Israel, without the holocaust israel would not exist. So it could go either way.
Who is at war with Israel? No-one. So the humiliation is gratuitous. Israel has been attacking Syria, both directly and through front groups for no reason at all. They founded Hamas which they control and use as an endless rolling thunder of alibis for mindlessly attacking Palestinians. They are constantly defaming and threatening the Iranians. So humiliating people isn’t going to lead to peace because its the Israelis attacking everyone that is the problem. After all these decades its really very clear. We will have peace in the Middle East when the Jews there are brought under strict third party control.