Dramatic developments in Pakistan over the past three weeks evoke a certain sense of deja vu: rampaging mobs causing a breakdown of law and order; mainstream political parties watching mutely, too scared to take a stand against the bigotry whipped up by mullahs; and a civilian government appealing to the army to step in and restore calm.
The climax came on Saturday evening, as large-scale violence gripped several Pakistani cities. With the government in a state of retrenchment, all eyes turned to the army leadership in Rawalpindi.
By Sunday morning, it had set out its position in a letter to the Interior Minister. The army was prepared to discharge its constitutional responsibility to assist the government, the letter said. However, its authors also wished to highlight a “few aspects meriting deliberation,” such as how the “police has not been utilized to its full capacity” in dealing with the protesters.
The letter underscored that – in-keeping with orders passed to the civilian government by the Supreme Court and Islamabad’s High Court on the matter last week – the terms of the military’s deployment need to be clarified. Simply put, the army has drawn attention to the fact that it’s the only adult in the room.
At the core of the current mayhem is a game of thrones stemming from the ouster of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif from power in July following a court verdict on corruption charges that resulted in his disqualification from holding public office. Sharif maintains there has been a conspiracy by a coalition of political forces – orchestrated from behind the scenes by the army – to drive him into the wilderness and eventual perdition.
Sharif has fought back, regaining much lost political capital over the last few months. His political base remains intact, his party is holding together and its prospects of winning federal elections next September have looked good.
That is, they did until religious mobs were mobilized around the country on the basis of false allegations that rightly belong to the theatre of the absurd – namely, that the government under Sharif’s party has not been unequivocal in its articulation of the rule that candidates for election must swear by the doctrine of Khatm-e-Nabuwwat, or finality of prophethood.
This mobilization is a blatant attempt to replace the incumbent government with a subservient “interim government” that would be willing to gerrymander the upcoming elections and keep Sharif’s party out of power. Alas, the other mainstream parties – both the Pakistan People’s Party and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf – also pine for the disintegration of the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz).
In this three-way power struggle between civilian government, clerics and the military, the latter puts on the appearance of an impartial arbiter. In reality, it’s plain to see that it fears a resurgent Sharif repeating the feat of Turkey’s Recep Erdogan, who has been able to assert civilian supremacy and send his country’s “Pashas” packing to their barracks.
When the violence began spiraling over the weekend, army chief General Qamar Bajwa pointedly spoke about the mullahs and the elected civilian government in the same breath. Rawalpindi tweeted: “COAS [Chief of Army Staff] telephoned PM. Suggested to handle Isb Dharna (protest marches) peacefully avoiding violence from both sides as it is not in national interest & cohesion.”
The religious parties, most of which have been mentored by the army for decades as ‘strategic assets,’ traditionally act as the vanguard to create political mayhem and force regime change in Pakistan
The former military dictator, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, was characteristically blunt in his analysis, proposing that an interim government be set-up to “run Pakistan for a few years through constitutional amendments and restructure the whole country.” Musharraf warned that Sharif’s party had a fighting chance to secure a renewed mandate.
The religious parties, most of which have been mentored by the army for decades as “strategic assets,” traditionally act as the vanguard to create political mayhem and force regime change in Pakistan. Mark Twain’s observation – that history does not repeat itself but often rhymes – may be worth bearing in mind, however.
Faith-based violence is an established feature of Pakistan’s political landscape. A significant difference this time, though, is that unlike in the past when the extremist fringes of the Deobandi sect provided the foot soldiers, this time it is the moderate Barelvi sect (which is often perceived as belonging to Sufi tradition) that has been mobilized. This is a fateful development.
The radicalization of Barelvi clerics and networks in Pakistan is ominous. As a perceptive Pakistani editor, Raza Roomi, points out: “Their (Barelvi) weaponization is arguably the worst outcome of the power struggle in Islamabad. We have been suffering the onslaught of extremist variants of Deobandi clerics and with the Barelvi power turning violent, Pakistan is headed towards a disastrous path.”
There are implications for wider sub-continental Muslim politics as well: whereas Deobandis constitute less than one-fifth of India’s Muslims, Barelvis form a majority. The point is that all of this is happening at a time when religion-based politics – something that has been more fundamental, historically, to Pakistan’s DNA – has been gaining huge traction among India’s Hindu majority.
Mr Bhadrakumar,
Sir, I have always enjoyed and appreciated your insight into the powder keg that is the Indian sub-continent. I thank you. This is a very erudite and prognostic article. I trust the readers can read between the lines and understand the warning bells you are sounding. Politics on its own is bad enough when it is just a class struggle between the haves and have-nots. But when you throw religion into the boil it is mayhem. And when you throw in nationalistic or tribal passion and fervour as well it is an impending disaster.
India and Pakistan does not have the benefit that China has of an almost homogenous people and culture. China is also basically an atheist secular authoritarian society albeit having a new ‘Emperor’ in the form of the Communist Party. We just take our Emperor as we find him of it as is currently the case. Basically the Chinese are primarily focused on a commonality of family first and economic wellbeing above everything else.
Pakistan was formed on the basis of the commonality of Islam, but now the spectre of conflict and differences arising from having heterogenous and different tribes, languages, culture as well as different sects or denominations of Islam, all inherently divisive is apparent. Token democracy in Sharia Islam Pakistan is just a farce! It may take time but eventually Pakistan has to be one singular united people under an Islamic caliphate of Pakistan. No further pretence.
India is where the real problem lies or is because it is striving to be the world’s largest democracy. It has the pretext of continuing on as an Anglisised Western nation. But with the ascendancy of Vedantic Hindu Nationalism can democracy truly survive? When there is nothing more belligerent than two opposing major fanatic religions like Islam and Hinduism, where lies the hope of Mather Bharat of Hindustan?
It is not as if you have the Chinese advantage of saying the Tao that is the Way Mother Nature is inconceivable. Tao once defined or prescribed is no longer the Tao. So, to each his own, and the Chinese happily go about doing their own personal version of the Tao. When however the Muslims and the Hindus do clash, it is like the clash of the Titans – to death!
What a pity! I have Hindu as well as Muslim Indian friends, all wonderful people. And my favourite actor is Sharul Khan. And my favourite all time movie is ‘Mother India’. I hope and pray therefore that both Hindus and Muslims in India do not get hot headed. Do not erupt in religious violence that Pakistan has. The multiracial, multireligious and multidiversity ‘unity’ caravan that is Bollywood must plod on regardless of how the different dogs bark and growl.
There is no evidence that religion based politics is gaining huge traction among India’s Hindu majority….In fact , it’s the Owaisis and Mamatas which are using minority votebank politics blatantly. For the author to claim that such is the case points to his leftist liberal leanings…
The recent turmoil in Pakistan by religious fanatics is nothing new. The short history of the country is replete with such incidences and do not indicate a trend. The religious fanatics had always been a convenient and cheap tool used by the power brokers in the subcontinent for ages. More troubling is the recent discovery of this religious fanatism and expliotation by the western powers who have globalized it and scaled it to unprecedented levels with their resources, funding and training to create the likes of ISIS, Al-Qaida and a host of other affiliated outfits. The western ploicy makers are amazed at this discovery – how easy and cheap it is to get people to die for a religion which has been distorted to serve their agendas.
Yesterday, Zahid Hamid resigned as law minister, but protesters are still not happy. Coup rumors is flourishing. Army is giving the civilian government enough rope to hang itself, paving the way for a military rule. Pakistan’s 111 Brigade is ready to take control of the streets if more demonstrations comes. TV/Radio now back on air, and so is social media.
Pakistan has in addition to religious problems, corruption, political, and economical problems. Not good for a nation with nuclear missile stockpiles.
Hi:
I have enjoyed your articles, and they are quite analytical. I do take certain investment decisions based on your analysis along with analysis of a few political analysts. I feel, the situation in India is going towards that of Pakistan. In my 65 years, I have not seen such fear. Why do you not do analysis of this
Nilakantan
After adding a Mullah to their title, the extremist zealots are practically worshipped as sacred cows in Pakistan.
@Shen Shen mind that pope Francis would never never condemn anybody and any religion. His words come from Jesus the Christ who brought us love for everybody in this world. Jesus was not the founder of a new religion he was the founder of a new heart towards our human fellows.