Middle East politics just witnessed two contrasting events. In Riyadh on Monday, there was a meeting of Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition (IMCTC) defense ministers. The previous day, in Tehran, came a trilateral “commercial” deal signed by Iran, Turkey and Qatar.
The IMCTC spectacle outstripped the modest event in Tehran in terms of sheer pomp and media publicity. Yet it is the latter that needs to be watched closely.
The new military alliance has been hastily called the “Arab NATO,” but it is neither quite Arab nor an alliance. Its steel frame is provided by Pakistan, but Pakistanis themselves are racially akin to north Indians.
The real North Atlantic Treaty Organization came into being on a solid geopolitical and ideological platform and provided the cutting edge to the West’s containment strategy vis a vis the USSR. But the IMCTC’s threat perception is over a protean, non-state phenomenon that mutates within the Muslim world itself. Saudi Arabia is widely reputed to be the principal incubator of “Islamic terrorists” historically, but its current predicament is that the birds are coming home to roost.
An economy in great distress, with foreign exchange reserves fast depleting; a vicious succession struggle that is tearing the royal family apart; signs of resentment in a deeply conservative religious establishment that traditionally lent legitimacy to rulers; deep-rooted social tensions producing demands for “reform” and opening up; seething unrest in Shi’ite oil-rich eastern provinces. Saudi soil is fertile for radical Islamists.
Equally, there’s a complicated external environment: Shi’ite empowerment in Iraq; a quagmire in Yemen; defeat in Syria; loss of Lebanon to Hezbollah; a “post-sanctions” Iranian surge; volatility in the oil market; and American unwillingness to prop up the Saudi regime in any domestic upheaval.
Saudi Arabia doesn’t face the threat of external aggression. Therefore, how useful is the IMCTC in warding off an enemy that slouches within Saudi Arabia itself? Again, will IMCTC countries go to war with Iran to re-establish Saudi pre-eminence in the Muslim Middle East?
Most IMCTC countries – drawn from distant lands in the Maghreb, Africa or Central Asia – maintain friendly relations with Iran. (Even Pakistan seems eager to turn a new leaf with Iran.)
Simply put, the IMCTC is the latest manifestation of the Saudi approach of throwing money at a problem to shoo it away. But the crisis today is existential, and the IMCTC gives a false sense of security. Monday’s photo-op in Riyadh called to mind the Shah of Iran’s festivities in 1971 showcasing the 2,500th Year of the Foundation of the Imperial State of Iran in Persepolis, even as the enemy was knocking at the gates.
By contrast, the Iran-Turkey-Qatar deal struck in Tehran on Sunday was a low-key event, but the substance of it is guaranteed to impact regional and international security.
The agreement, signed by three obscure commerce ministers who do not make headlines in western media, provides for the creation of a “joint working group to facilitate the transit of goods between the three countries” to tackle “obstacles to sending goods from Iran and Turkey to Qatar.”
This may seem a modest effort at streamlining the logistics of trade flow to Qatar, which can no longer access the land route via Saudi Arabia. But it is hugely symbolic – signifying Doha’s strategic defiance of Saudi regional leadership, and open support from Ankara and Tehran. Doha’s dalliance with Tehran was ostensibly the initial reason behind Saudi wrath, but Qatar and Iran are now flaunting a veritable alliance. It undermines Gulf Cooperation Council cohesion, since Iran also enjoys cordial ties with Oman and Kuwait.
On a broader plane, the deepening three-way entente between Russia, Turkey and Iran, against a backdrop of their shared antipathy toward the US, already provides a firewall for Tehran from regional isolation. And Iran’s kinship with Qatar and Turkey, two Sunni Muslim countries, debunks the campaign by Riyadh to give sectarian coloring to its rift with Tehran.
Fundamentally, the Turkey-Iran-Qatar alliance resets the balance of forces in the Muslim Middle East by openly challenging Saudi Arabia’s leadership role
The Qatar-Iran proximity has profound implications for global energy markets. Russia, Iran and Qatar account for around 55% of the world’s proven gas reserves. The three countries are leading players within the Gas Exporting Countries Forum. Besides, Iran “shares” the South Pars gas fields (accounting for 27% of Iranian reserves) with Qatar, and Russia is, of course, deepening its presence in Iran’s energy sector.
Qatar has dominated the LNG markets since the 2000s. But Russia is bolstering its LNG production with the establishment of the Yamal field facility (expected to be fully functional by 2020) and Iran, too, is eyeing a future as an LNG exporter.
US President Donald Trump is set to expand US LNG production, but, to be sure, the world LNG market is getting crowded. A quasi-alliance between Russia, Iran and Qatar can therefore seriously derail Trump’s best-laid plans for American LNG exports.
This also adds to US sensitivities about its 6500-plus troops currently stationed in Qatar, which hosts the regional headquarters of US Central Command, at Al-Udeid Airbase. There are, likewise, gathering storms in US-Turkey relations. Turkey has a military base in Qatar, too.
Meanwhile, a giant new port opened in Qatar in September that becomes a gateway for Iran, just across the waterway, to boost trade, even as Fifa’s 2022 Qatar World Cup draws ever closer. Iran, moreover, is offering its airspace to reroute Qatar Airways flights to Europe and the Americas.
Iran hopes to attract Qatari investments. There is even talk of listing Iranian government debt, such as treasury bonds, on the Qatar Stock Exchange someday. Suffice to say, in geopolitical terms, the budding alliance with Qatar provides Iran with much strategic depth.
Iran has a history of outwitting the Saudis through a mix of brainpower and guile, projected through diplomacy, and that seems to be repeating. Fundamentally, though, the Turkey-Iran-Qatar alliance resets the balance of forces in the Muslim Middle East by openly challenging Saudi Arabia’s leadership role.
NATO has been a disaster from day one for all nations participating, exempt the US. The US has lured NATO countries to spend a fortune on arms and participate in most of the US/UN wars. Safe to assume the “Arab NATO” IMCTC will be the same concept.
Who will be the next victim of war in the Middle East? Lebanon seems safe for now. Qatar is a money honeypot. Iran is the Saudi Archenemy.
The Israeli, Saudi, and the US military complex lobbyists is very powerful, so the US might get involved in an Iran war. US retired Col. Wilkerson said a few days ago: The Saudis will fight Iran to the last AMERICAN. Israel too will be happy to get the US fight "their" war against Iran. President Trump got 400 BILLION reasons (arms sales) to participate in the shameful Yemen Genocide. It seems in Washington money talks, ethics and all other considerations comes second.
Sir, your appraisal is very accurate. I presume your past diplomatic connections are still proving useful. If I might just be a little wee bit critical.
You have been rather subdued in not divulging the full background as to why the U.S. is now complacent and rather indifferent to the Saudis, other than keeping them as customers in terms of good income from war weaponry.
It is an open secret that the Saudis were behind 9/11 and also behind the Sunni connected ISIS insurgents and also behind the worldwide proselytising of extremely old fashioned Wahabbi orthodox Islam. All these ‘jihad’ when the world is crying out for moderation and religious tolerance and interfaith dialogue. Yes, the chicken has come home to roost.
But that aphorism also applies equally to the Americans who initiated all the post WWII conflicts in the Middle East right from the time of the topping of the legitimate government of Iran to put the Shah in power, And every subsequent war in the Middle East and North Africa, all in the name of total access to or control of the global oil trade through its oil cartels and petrodollars. In fact 9/11 is simply the Chicken coming home to roost.
Neither Communism nor Islam are per se sinister and evil. Only the Yanks declare them to be so as an imprimatur as the World Sheriff.
You have also not discussed the reasons or the implications of the Pakistani Army contracted to the Saudis, being the military version of Filipino maids and workers working in the Gulf States. Pakistan is in financial trouble. Any country that is not currently full of factories or natural resources including touristy resorts and scenery in this world and has a very large population is going to be in deep shit.
The mercenary Pakistan Army would be like the Gurkhas for the British. But the Pakistani Army has only proven itself except against its avowed enemy India. I hate to consider what the outcome might be if they were to go to war against the Iranians or the Israelis.
But allow me to speculate – a Pakistani will fight to death any day to defend his family and kin and his country. But to die for money for an employer (though a fellow Muslim) but not a fellow Sind, Pathan or Punjabi or Baluchistan! The Saudis are dreaming a fantastic reverie!
What I am saying is this. If the Sunni Saudis think they can have the Pakistani Army stand in for the U.S. Army, if it goes to war with Shite Iran, instead of themselves Arabs fighting the Iranians, they are not facing reality. When Muslims fight Muslims, Islam fades into the background and then it is simply just a tribal warfare. It is no longer the case like in history where the Muslim Saudis conquered the other heathen tribes in the rest of the Middle East. It is no longer Islam against Pagans. It will be now one Muslim tribe or nation against another Muslim tribe or nation. And on that account Allah has to stand in the sidelines as the faithful make war among themselves! Exactly what the Christian West wish for! Can the Muslim World please wake up to their senses that divided they fall!
Iran has the networks, expertise, experience and strategic patience required to fight and win proxy wars at low cost and with plenty of disingenuous deniability. The Saudis simply don’t, which is why seeking to beat the Iranians at this game is dangerous and costly
Too much alcohol is bad for your brain, tiger.
In other words Saudis are brainless arrogants with running out money 🙂
Very good analysis from MKB. Right on point.
As the saying goes, Iranians play chess while their enemies seem to think it’s checkers. For Israel to cultivate Saudi Arabia as an ally against the Persians is like bringing a knife to the proverbial gunfight. Iran will clean the floor with the Saudis unless they run and hide behind the US Navy, which I’m pretty sure is Riyadh and Tel Aviv’s program anyway.
Just like the Axis and Aliiedalliance of world war 2. A prelude to a bigger regional war or even world war.
The article and the comments here are virtual crash courses in regional politics. Very informative discussion taking place although I suspect some are using 2 or 3 accounts. Hehehe
If IMCTC moves in the right direction, GCC will have to be shut down, and Saudis pack their bags back home.. Its going to be a giant meal for the US and Russia, whereby Russia has already had its piece of cake from Saudi Arabia (S400 deal made in Moscow lately) China went fishing into Saudi waters, but could get the right big fish. Whereas Saudis wanted war with Iran, and the Israels have already sniffed it….Changing Middle East..Good report MKB..
If it wasn’t for MK Bhadrakumar’s pre-emptive article, Spengler, Goldman (Mossad agent) would have been singing praises if Saudi led NATO…..LOL.
Saudis have just added Qatar and Turkey to the list of snakes for the Arab Nato i.e. Pakis to strike off their heads.
It is a war of nerves more than any thing else.Persians have brains.Arabs will have to borrow it either from Israel or US. I bet on Iran to win this game
In order for any kind of mutual defense system to work it must includ Israel as the nuclear power, not the Paks.
But looking at the bigger picture, it does look like this gathering in Saudi Arabia to cSombat terrorism is much more then that. Given the support that MbS is getting from Russia and China, this looks more like Saudi effort to jump into the swing of global realignment. Being for much too long stuck in one mode — US neocon framework — it has suffered many humiliating defeats, and is eager to get itself shifted into the broader global trends. Having been for years the financier and the inspiration behind all forms of Islamically inspired shock-troups, from Al-Qaeda and Taliban, to ISIS and its various offshoots in Asia and Africa — Saudi Arabia depleated its resources, humiliated in hasty Qatar utlimatum, stuck in an unwinnable war in Yemen, lost in Syria and Iraq, and acquired reputation for being the home of the most intollerant sect, Wahhabis. The same sect that provided spiritual leadership to ISIS, and is associated with its incredible barbarity. The abrupt change in Saudi leadership was not that abrupt as it appears. It was brewing ever since the short-reigning crown prince Muqrin was replaced by neocon friendly Mohammed bin Nayaf. Crown Prince is the head of the government, and years of breeding neconon friendly elites resulted in a Saudi Arabia that lost it bearings, its financial strenght, sacrificed its oil prices for geopolicial games, and in the end, lost all the battles it fought on neocon urging. It lost its closest Gulf allies, who no longer towed hard anti-Iranian line. The Kingdom lost its reputation. King has — as a precaution — placed his son in critical positions, but it is important that everyone keeps in mind that he was not decision maker, only an informed insider in MbN circles.
My view is that in line with the King asserting his authority that was tarnished by neocon spread of false information about his senile state — realignment happened on the level of all tribes, as they approved the replacement of Crown Prince. With the changed relationship with Russia and China, Saudi Arabia now has to manage US relationships. They have to be managed carefully, as infulence of neocons among Saudi business and royal community is high. The key management of the relationship is the anti-Iranian rhetoric — but the gathering of many Moslem countries that have good relationship with Iran shows the willingness of Saudi Arabia to diversify its outlook. It may be about anti-terrorism, but probably more about curtailing its own support for groups. But much more then that, coordination could prove be create a more unified group, but a group that is by far more influenced by Eurasian developments then far away US or even Europe. Saudi Arabia is not dependent on Russia to control the price of oil. The fear Saudi Arabia had was the loss of US market. Yes, the loss is probably temporary, as anyone with real technical knowledge of both fracking and tar sands oil extraction claims — the production cost are higher then then market value, and the industry is dependent on revolving financing. It is also clear that the
sweet spots of extractin have been exploited already, and only costlier and less productive fields remain. Yes, it may be so that US may end up on world market again in a decade or so, but for now — it is swimming in oil and gas, and crashing the prices on global market. With Russia agreeing to curb production, prices will stabilize. China is, on the other hand, a growing customer. The projects encompassing a great deal of Central Asia, Iran, Turkey and Balkans as a part of BRI, are the new source of customers, something Saudi Arabia cannot ignore. As the author pointed out, large LNG producers will become even larger. Russia and Japan are collaborating on LNG terminal in Russia for Japan market. And the Russian-Turkish gas pipeline, the one US is strenuously lobbying against in Europe, will also have LNG component in Turkey. So, the construction of pipeline is not dependent on the European flakeness. If Europe does not approve of pipeline accross Balkans to Europe, it is very likely that local interests of Balkan countries will. Greece, Serbia, Hungary and Austria will very likely want the pipeline, which which will isolate Macedonia — at present in clutches of Soros engineered regime change government. But no government, engineered or not, cannot survive working openly against the interests of its population. So, Chinese, Turkish and Russian move on Balkans is by far more powerful then the perenial whining about Russia moving into Balkans. I am under impression that Saudi Arabia changed its course, and like any other large ship, it will take time to reposition, reassess and redirect its priorities. But the key direction has been set.
Falk Rovik Fully agree with you, and this the fact you mentioned roght here.
iam suni muslim My personel believe Iran Turkish and Qatar has more power than tororist ideagoal countries like Saudi Arabia their are empty country reality they are acting as leader ship of sunni Muslims no human right at all but the only reason they have because location muslim of holy areas like mecca and madina give them more opportunity than other islamice countries in that reason they believe they are leading sunni Muslim which not false picture mojority suni community knows better than others
Well written article by MKB that shows the true new alliances and their repercussions in the ME , Europe and the world of LNG and Energy .
Very informative and well written.
The Saudis were only the patsies for 9/11, the real perpetrators were the CIA/MOSSAD coalition, this has been comprehensively documented so your statement cannot be ignorance, but more likely you are a disinformation agent of the zionists!
Thank you for the interesting article. I’ll have to check out the Asia Times more often.
Barry Graham – While the CIA and the Mossad were most definitely involved in 9/11, I believe there were more participating parties, e.g. Dick Cheney, some rogue elements in the Pentagon, the British intelligence services, private security contractors with connections to high level government officials … etc etc.
I don’t think Vince Cheok works for the Zionists.
Curious if the US is a loser why is it still the superpower that it is and Iran a regional power locked against Saudi with USSR collapsing and Russia in throes of bankruptcy? ?
Mocking will be a recipe for regime change assignment for the Jews first State.
I am muslim sunni living saudi arabia last 30 year and i know this country very well Really Saudi is the government is puppet of american and they beleive every they did american will protect them because the American money getting from them as well they are really tororist country because the way they are used Islam different from the visions of the Islam but its not real concept of the islam its wahabs come abdiwahab vision even they tororisted the non Saudi resident of the country if go saudi jails thousand non saudi are there for nonsense reason because they have very bad character of those Saudi pupolation supported by the government 9/11 did by Saudi every body as well Isis boko haram .all shabab all qaida all they are get support from them and get the money as well the real support coming from Saudi included and gatar and emarat those countries are very dangerous
Always american has good dreams if israil and saudi and emarat start war against iran just beleived or not iran more stronger than those countries so if american put his nose Russian and chines and turkey will help Iran and more other in middle as well as sunni Muslim because iam sunni muslim supporting Iran not only me alone thousand Muslim sunni will support Iran rather than Saudi Arabia other monkey countries like emarate Bahrain and other small countries
Just believe or not Saudi Arabia and emarat are most hateful sunni Muslim countries
How to support KSA when they behive so erradic, without concept and ideology. Who can understand why they supported such criminal like Sisi monster is, why they pledged bilions to damned Sisi Egipt under Coptic cross. They lost friends among muslims and will never get a friend of USA. Very very lost but still with plenty of money.
If they return to their old politics of blocking Israel would be much better for them, but God nows the best
Turkey doesn’t like Saudi Arabia that’s good move but Turkey also dislikes Iran so the alliance is a temporary alliance. Once the Saudis were overthrown, Turkey would fight Iran.