Donald Trump is a brash reality-television-star-turned-president billionaire. South Korea’s Moon Jae-in is a former human-rights lawyer and activist who spent time in jail in his fight against official corruption. President Trump’s administration faces a growing swirl of investigations; President Moon was elected to restore trust after his predecessor went to jail for bribery and influence-peddling.
That’s not to say the US and Korean leaders don’t have lots to discuss in Seoul in the days ahead. But with worldviews every bit as a divergent as their personal stories, humankind should tamp down expectations of anything notable happening.
Moon and Trump will do more dancing around than negotiating on the three big issues driving their agendas apart: North Korea, trade and China.
Differences over Kim Jong-un’s provocations are well known. Moon wants to talk, resurrecting former President Kim Dae-jung’s “sunshine policy.” Trump is in Twitter-troll mode, threatening “fire and fury” and scaring Seoul with “calm before the storm” teasers like some TV producer juicing up ratings.
Less well known is how Trump’s White House has left Moon’s administration hanging. Seoul’s decision to host US-designed Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems enraged China’s Xi Jinping. Xi’s government has spent the last several months retaliating: cancelling tour groups, causing visa troubles for K-pop performers, shuttering Lotte stories and orchestrating other hits to commercial interests that Hyundai Research Institute says will cost Korea about US$8 billion this year. All the while, Trump’s White House has been disturbingly silent.
That’s unfortunate, considering Seoul is taking hits partly for Washington. Yes, installing THAAD systems is about keeping 50 million South Koreans safe. But it’s also about having America’s back in North Asia as Kim’s missiles expand their reach. Other White Houses would be sure to make Seoul’s cooperation worth its while. Instead, Trump is scrapping a five-year old Korea-US free trade pact, or KORUS.
Negotiations on KORUS began under President George W. Bush and got ratified by Barack Obama in 2012. Now it’s in limbo as Trump pushes to renegotiate. It’s of a piece with his passion for reneging on deals: Trans-Pacific Partnership, Paris climate change pact, the Iran nuclear agreement, you name it.
Just as with Shinzo Abe’s Japan, Trump thinks Moon’s people are taking advantage of America. “We’re getting destroyed in Korea,” Trump said in April. He’s also called it a “horrible deal. It was a Hillary Clinton disaster, a deal that should’ve never been made.” Given Trump’s belief that KORUS is a “one-way street,” how could Moon expect Asia’s No. 4 economy to emerge from any renegotiation unscathed? The best-case scenario is for Moon to turn on the charm and make Trump’s visit as quick and painless as possible.
Finally, there’s China. After nine-plus months of Trumpian chaos, most Asian leaders are hoping January 2021 comes quickly – and unpreceded by major calamity. A new wrinkle, though, is that Xi just extended Moon an olive branch. Beijing and Seoul just agreed to move beyond the THAAD spat, news that boosted South Korean stocks.
Xi’s people also are talking with Moon’s about a meeting in Beijing by year end. China may have engineered this as a slight aimed at Prime Minister Abe, which in turn could open the door for a possible Xi visit to Japan. That might be an opportunity to increase trade flows with Asia’s biggest economy as Trump tightens the vice from the other direction.
China will necessitate quite the balancing act from Moon and Trump, who will fly directly from Seoul to Beijing on Wednesday. But he’d be wise to shore up the US-Korea alliance first.
Moon’s strategy appears to be flattery: Trump will be lavished with the first state visit for a US leader in 25 years, full military honors, National Assembly speech, gala dinner, cultural performances.
Trump would be wise to return the favor. He will find in the months (and perhaps years) ahead that Washington needs Seoul just as much as Seoul needs Washington.
60% of South Korean voters voted for parties who pledged to end the US occupation of South Korea.
Democracy will prevail eventually.
America must look into the big picture of things. To BRICS and Asian Countries free trade/globalization essentially means ability of fleecing American Economy years after years. American trade deficit was sky-rocketed years after years while US political leadership took a nap. Whole thing make Bush & Obama era talking heads look like painfully uneducated on long term impact on US Economy.
Now a new Ivy league graduate & business man is in White House – Mr. Donald J. Trump. His ‘America First’ policy is substantative and Trade-deficit issue must be addressed head on. US Dollar being the currency of choice for global trade, it is in everybody’s interest to help sustain Dollar’s health. And that should be primary concern in Trump’s 12-day Asia trip. Let’s revisit those Trade policies, balance it or scrap it. Globalization/Free Trade must be a two way street with equal benefits for all. US Trade deficit with every country must be a thing of the past.
Moon, Xi, Abe must come up a policy that America can live with – it must be win-win proposition for all. It is not meant to be a favor to US, but to Moon, Xi, Abe’s country as well.
"Washington needs Seoul just as much as Seoul needs Washington."
What are you smoking and where can I get some? This is such blatant BS that I can’t imagine anyone saying it with a straight face.
Lets be honest about Moon———he is a weak leader that became top dog when Park lost her mind. The Americans and the Chinese know that Moon is weak and that is the reason Korea is in trouble. When Moon became President his mistake was to allow the THAAD missile system to continue, this was mental case Park’s decision and he had a way out with the environmental study that stated THAAD was not good environmentally and a considerable part of the Korean population was against it————-BUT Moon buckled which cost Korea dearly with the Chinese deciding to put economic pressure on Korean companies. Hopefully Moon has learned from his bad decisions and take up the art of dancing with Xi, Trump and Abe instead of getting trapped by the three leaders. As for this so called esteemed writer of this post———the fool is a Trump hater that articles are usually off the mark!!———Just sayin!!
Well, to do that Trump will first have to seek permissions from a lot of people, including (but not limited to) those in Congress, the Pentagon, the CIA, … who in turn will need permissions from "higher authorities".
I’m sure Trump won’t bother — he already knows the answer — it’s a resounding NO.
Trump should do the right thing and hand back control of South Korea’s military in war time back to South Korea. South Korea previous president Ms Park had requested for this simple friendly action and President Moon is again requesting for the same thing.