A couple of years ago I attended seminars with Chinese and Israeli counterterrorism experts in Beijing, in my capacity as a board member of a foundation that promotes Sino-Israel relations. A senior Chinese official complained that the Saudi royal family funds every radical madrassa in Xinjiang province, where Muslim Uyghurs of Turkish ethnicity form the majority. With a long and porous border stretching through sparsely-populated lands, Chinese security couldn’t prevent the funds from pouring in.
I asked our Chinese hosts why they didn’t remonstrate with the Saudi government. The Chinese official said, “We talk to the Saudis all the time, and they say they will have nothing to do with it. But this is not a government. It is a family! Some crazy cousin is always sending money to terrorists through informal finance channels.”
Now it appears that Saudi Arabia has a government, thanks to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s weekend purge of the royal family. It is probably the only political event in recent memory that has the support of Washington, Moscow and Beijing, not to mention Berlin, London, Paris and Tokyo — as well as Jerusalem.
“We talk to the Saudis all the time, and they say they will have nothing to do with it. But this is not a government. It is a family! Some crazy cousin is always sending money to terrorists through informal finance channels.”
China Daily hailed the Crown Prince’s action as a modernizing anti-corruption campaign. “The wave of arrests, the first of its kind, paves the way for a new Saudi Arabia with an intolerant approach against corruption. It also gets ready for the country [to move] towards a post-oil era with the focus on economic reforms and diversity, and major business projects,” the Chinese government newspaper wrote on November 5.
Russia’s Novosti News Service characterized Mohammed bin Salman’s purge in nearly identical language: “As for the detention of a number of ministers and large businessmen in Saudi Arabia, then, according to the expert, on the contrary, one should expect an improvement in the economic situation in the kingdom and a reduction in the budget deficit. ‘The return of the huge capitals exported by these people abroad may help reduce the budget deficit and enable the implementation of new projects proposed by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,’ [Lebanese expert Marwan] Iskander said in an interview with RIA Novosti.”
President Trump, for that matter, tweeted, “I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing.”
Indeed they do. The foundations for the creation of a functioning Saudi state were laid well before President Trump visited Riyadh last March. The Washington Post reported at the time: “Behind the scenes, the Trump administration and Saudi Arabia have been conducting extensive negotiations, led by White House senior adviser Jared Kushner and Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The discussions began shortly after the presidential election, when Mohammed, known in Washington as ‘MBS,’ sent a delegation to meet with Kushner and other Trump officials at Trump Tower. After years of disillusionment with the Obama administration, the Saudi leadership was eager to do business. ‘They were willing to make a bet on Trump and on America,’ a senior White House official said.”
Last month’s Moscow visit by King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman provided cover for the crackdown. As Leonid Issaev wrote in al-Jazeera Oct. 4, “Both Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the Russian leadership have personal interests in developing the relations between the two countries. First of all, the Saudi crown prince needs to strengthen his political position at home and he views Russia as an actor that can help him achieve this goal.”
As I wrote in Asia Times Oct 16, Russia’s sale of its advanced S-400 air defense system to the Saudi Kingdom makes clear that Moscow wants to keep a balance of power in the Middle East. It is perceived as an ally of Iran, but also fears that Iran’s attempts to establish a permanent presence in Lebanon could provoke war with Israel – which Russia does not want. Russia allied with Iran to clean up Sunni jihadists in Syria, not least because large numbers of Russian Muslims came to Syria to fight against the Assad government and returned home as prospective terrorists. But the alliance only goes so far. From the Saudi point of view, hedging the kingdom’s bets against the United States is a rational response to the American drift towards Iran under the Obama Administration, according to a senior adviser to the Defense Department.
Moscow’s interest in Saudi Arabia goes well beyond the market for sophisticated arms, to be sure. Russian-Saudi cooperation to stabilize oil prices is in the interest of both parties. And Moscow will applaud the Crown Prince’s effort to suppress freelance financing for Sunni jihadists by members of the royal family.
Israel has quietly developed contacts with the Saudi government, which has far more to fear from Iran than from the Jewish state. Israel will continue to keep a low profile in the Arab world, but the Crown Prince’s purge has some direct implications for Israeli security. Among the victims of the Saudi crackdown was Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri, who announced his resignation while in Saudi Arabia on Nov 4, citing an Iranian plot to kill him. Hariri almost certainly was ordered to resign by his Saudi hosts. His father, Raafik Hariri, was killed in a 2005 bombing attributed to Iran and its Lebanese militia Hezbollah.
Now, as Anna Ahronheim wrote in the Jerusalem Post on Nov 6, “It seems that Hariri has given Israel more legitimacy for a full-scale and uncompromising campaign against Iran and Lebanon, not only Hezbollah, should a war in the north break out.” Hariri gave credence to Israel’s position that Hezbollah, which threatens Israel with a stockpile of more than 100,000 missiles, is a cat’s paw for Iran. Israel’s Defense Minister Avidgor Lieberman tweeted on Nov 5, “Lebanon=Hezbollah. Hezbollah=Iran. Lebanon=Iran. Iran is dangerous to the world. Saad Hariri has proved that today. Period.”
Yoav Gallant, a member of Israel’s security cabinet, commented, “Iran controls actually Lebanon, Iraq and is working very hard to take over Syria. This is a great danger to the stability of the region and the peace of the world. Hariri understands very well that after the massacre that is taking place in Syria, he might be next in line, as it happened to his father Rafik al-Hariri, and he is saying it in his own words.”
Should war break out, the Jerusalem Post quoted Gallant as saying Israel “will bring Lebanon back to the stone age.”
From the viewpoint of Washington, Beijing, Moscow, and Jerusalem, this is win-win-win-win. The odd man out is Iran, whose attempts to project power from Tehran to the Mediterranean have become an annoyance even for its allies. The shape of the deal emerging in the Middle East was visible last summer. As I wrote on July 17, the US and Russia both need to leash their dogs – the former to crack down on Saudi financing of Sunni jihadists and the latter to puncture Iran’s dream of a Shi’a empire.
The missing ingredient in the mix was a Saudi leader with the courage to face down his own family as well as the country’s religious establishment. It is not clear yet that Prince Mohammed bin Salman will succeed, but if he does, he will be the most popular world leader of 2017.
A Saudi Deng, clearing out the Gang of Four so he can drag his country into the 21st century?
I hope it’s true.
So in sum, all major powers are coalescing around MBS because he is a "centrist/modernist," everyone in the world can agree that they hate aggressive Wahhabist Islam, and the all now seem to want peace via a balance of power in the mid-east. Do I have that correct?
So, if true, that makes the old Saudi regime and American neocons the ultimate losers, aggressors and villains of the recent Syrian proxy-war. By inference it also proves that Obama/Clinton/McCain did indeed use Jihadis, if not ISIS, as stragetic tools in Syria. Finally, It also makes Russia a huge victor, and Putin appear as a sage, with Russia’s limited but highly successful intervention in Syria that has brought this new peace and balance of power.
David Goldman It is doubtful if Mr. Ahmed would get past security at Ben Gurion Airport. My understanding is that screening for politically undersirable people has reached a new level.
Agreeing or not, sure appreciate Mr Goldman, taking the time to interact with his readers.
David Goldman The Uighurs is part of what is called the Turkic ethnic group from the Old Ottoman empire. They have several organizations in the USA getting support for their causes.
http://katehon.com/1227-cia-and-turks-created-caliphate-to-launch-attacks-on-russia-and-china.html
China have killed arrested a lot of CIA assets. Some of them in Xinyang province.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/20/world/asia/china-cia-spies-espionage.html
All over Caucasus CIA has made connections using Uighurs, Grey Wolfes (Turkish & Turkic), and not to forget the Gulen network. For more information I strongly recommend Newsbud video’s. Uighurs has been used in the Syrian war and Uighurs connected to the Turkic Grey Wolfes has been used for terrorism in Europe and Asia. The Grey Wolfes has training camps in Xinyang. Grey Wolfes have been involved in the CIA/NATO Gladio operations and is also suspected to have behind the Bangkok bombings.
I wish there was someone like MBS in the US, with a powerful vacuum cleaner…
David Goldman That kind of activity is subcontracted to KSA and Pakistan, subject to approval of the US. It remains to be seen whether current political developments will affect this.
Dresden was a conventional attack. Israel doesn’t require nuclear weapons to reduce parts of Lebanon to a grease spot. It’s true that Israel should not be complacent. It knows perfectly well that it has to fight for survival, and that’s why it has succeeded. I suggest you go visit the "Zionist state." You will see the most vibrant, optimistic, successful society in the world. Not much like Russia in 1988.
It puts Arabia a step closer to ruled by Al Qaeda.
If Lebanon goes to stone age, so too Israel will. Don’t think nuclear weapons are very effective in near visinity. In conventional war although Zionist Israel has technical supiriority but a blunt weapon is no less effective for a country like Israel. In 1973 if USA directly did not participate, Israel would be non existant again. Don’t forget the lesson of Super Power Russia. No one could imagine even it will collapse from with in. Today or tomorrow Zionist State will be non existant again. Be confirmed.
The Chinese are upset that the US (and Germany) have hosted Uyghur exile organizations, but I have never heard an allegation that the US is funding radical madrassas from any Chinese source.
Hardly a puppy, although I’ll take that as a compliment. More like a nasty old dog.
MBS certainly is acting as a dictator. So what? So did Henry VIII, Louis XI, Ivan I and Charles V. Pre-modern societies have always need a strong leader to drag them into modernity. Nobody talks about "Ivan the Reasonable."
An Israeli security analyst close to the PM told me that the Israeli response to rocket attacks from populated Shia districts would be "Dresden." I don’t understand your question. Israel certainly has the technical capability to do this. The issue always has been politics. Condi Rice held Olmert back in 2006. If Hezbollah fires rockets into Israel, Trump will NOT hold Israel back, and the Saudis will applaud. Putin and Xi will wag their fingers at Israel but no more. Iran will then have the choice of attacking Israel and sustaining a devastating response, or doing nothing. Not much of a choice really. That scenario is unlikely to unfold, The only change is that thanks to the Saudis, the credibility of Israeli deterrence went up a notch. Substituting RMB for USD in oil trade will take many years, if it ever happens.
"Saudi Arabia Gets Its First Real Government" …….
Ok Spengler, let’s take this as an attractive title for your article, but this is Goldman’s glitter and not gold’s. How about Israel getting a first real government, sooner or later ? Too many blunders, the latest with the Barzani’s big flop, when Israel was dreaming a new military base against Iran… And the other blunder going to fail soon, Israel’s military "masters" based in Somaliland, dreaming to help the Saudis destroy Yemen and become the Saudi’s new official Raj…
Blunder after blunder, and we have seen many of them, will Israel understand that China, Russia and Iran have been and still are very patient ? They don’t need to bomb Tel Aviv, they are patiently getting rid of the US$, Israel’s oil…
Goldman sounds nothing but an israeli puppy . Assuming lebanon can be turned back into stone age is pipe dream . Evey subject in the world gets connected to Israel where Goldman is concerned
Good read!
May Sheldon Cooper forgive me, but "you couldn’t be more wrong", Mr Goldman. This purge is driven by MBS, a tyrant-to-be, stable and single-minded as it gets but who has proven his true colors sofar, just a slightly different hue from his predecessors. Hardly KSA "New hope", except for car sellers maybe.
It is a re-edition of Erdogan coup of july 2016, a general worsening of ME war fog.The fact that, supposedly, IL will be left out (if we trust MBS) doesnt make it less terrible an event.
Hmm…..
"…. Et tu Brute’…..?"
This counter coup was a be or not to be for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. There has been looming coup plans against him. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman need full control to implement his Vision 2030 for Saudi Arabia. What he does not need is corruption that results in more misery for the average Saudi national.
The reactions have been mixed, but what can you do when the Crown Prince has taken complete power. What annoys many Muslims is the close relations between US/Saudi/Israel. An increasing number of Americans is awaking to the fact it might not be only the Saudis behind the 9/11 false flag. Anyway, the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman idea of modernizing and diversifying the Saudi economy is a good idea.
I might ad the US too is very good at supporting to funds every radical madrassa in Xinjiang province, where Muslim Uyghurs of Turkish ethnicity who now is a minority due to the influx of ethnic Chinese. The US is providing support for destabilization of the Eur Asian region. The Turkish/Turkic Grey Wolfes has built a network of Jihadist connections and USA uses the Grey Wolfes to commit terrorism in Europe and Asia to achieve US objectives.