The Turkish President Recep Erdogan cut a lone figure at the trilateral summit of Russia, Iran and Turkey at Sochi on Wednesday regarding a Syrian settlement.
From a position of being the friend of the Assad family, close ally of the United States and leader of a major NATO power, influential voice in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East – at Sochi he was wearing sack clothes and ashes, pleading with his Russian and Iranian counterparts to accommodate Turkey’s core interests of sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Make no mistake, the US is warning of a regime change in Turkey. The wheel has turned full circle for Erdogan.
He was the darling of the West in the nineties when he took on Turkey’s Kemalists, riding the wings of “moderate Islam.”
The dismantling of Kemalist state wedded to militant nationalism was expected to make Turkey more amenable to western influence. So, the West hailed him as a role model for the New Middle East – a democratically elected Islamist serving western geopolitical interests.
The first shock came in 2003 when Turkey’s Islamist government refused to join the US-led invasion of Iraq. Turkish-American relations never quite recovered after that.
One thing led to another – and, a second turning point came in January 2009 when Erdogan publicly clashed with then Israeli President Shimon Peres over Gaza at a Davos panel, walking off the stage after an angry exchange in front of cameras.
The Turkish-Israeli relationship, which used to be a quasi-alliance, fractured even as Erdogan began supporting Hamas and sponsoring the Muslim Brotherhood. This hurt US interests very much, since the Turkish-Israeli axis was crucial to American strategies in the Middle East.
The Obama administration tried hard to get Turkey to reconcile with Israel, but it became apparent that Erdogan was calibrating the compass of Turkish foreign policies in a new direction altogether. Some called it “neo-Ottomanism.”
The last opportunity for a US-Turkish rapprochement came with the Arab Spring when Obama and Erdogan found themselves on the same page. But then, after raising hopes in Erdogan’s mind regarding regime change in Syria, Obama pulled back from the agenda, whereas Erdogan expected a forceful US-led intervention.
Erdogan’s dilemma was not different from Shakespeare’s Macbeth:
“I am in blood / Stepped in so far that, should I wade no more, / Returning were as tedious as go o’er.”
So, he pressed ahead regardless, and very soon Turkey found itself in strange company, mentoring the Islamic State and al-Qaeda affiliates in Syria.
Erdogan might still have succeeded but for the Russian intervention in September 2015, when a terrible beauty was born profoundly transforming the balance of forces. For the first time in its ancient history, Turkey had to contend with a superior power in its backyard.
In circumstances that remain obscure even today, a Russian jet was shot down in November, which gave Moscow the alibi to turn the screw on Erdogan. It was a win-win situation for Moscow because pressuring and isolating an increasingly intransigent and stubborn Erdogan was just what suited the US and NATO (and Israeli) interests, too.
Whereas, Moscow also knew Erdogan couldn’t take the Russian pressure for long and would seek to patch-up the relationship, which was exactly what happened. Of course, the Kremlin is hugely experienced in salami tactics – a process of threats and alliances used to overcome opposition – and Erdogan’s discord with the US made him by far the weaker party, his bluster and theatrical rhetoric notwithstanding.
Meanwhile, the attempted coup against Erdogan in July 2016 worked to Russia’s advantage. Erdogan believes the US masterminded the coup to eliminate him. From that point, things got personal – entangled also with the fate of his Islamist rival Fetullah Gulen living in great style in the US.
To be sure, the US too is highly experienced in salami tactics and began steadily tightening the noose on Erdogan. The FBI opened a file to implicate Erdogan, his family members and his close circle in a scam that involves Turkey’s state bank for trading with Iran violating US sanctions and in turn breaking US banking laws.
The trial is set to begin in a US federal court in December. And the main accused in the case, an unsavory Azeri character, half-Iranian and half-Turkish in FBI custody, may have turned “approver.”
Washington is seemingly helpless with the due process of law taking its course, but has the option to intervene (provided Erdogan capitulates.) An adverse verdict in the US federal court can lead to criminal charges against Erdogan and key associates, sanctions against Turkey and even eviction from NATO.
With the dramatic change in its relationship with Turkey, the West is furious like a woman scorned. At a NATO exercise in Norway last week, Erdogan (and Ataturk, symbolically) were listed as “enemy” targets inadvertently.
Erdogan – and Turkish politics – is at a crossroads. Erdogan’s dalliance with Vladimir Putin was the “red line” for the West. The dalliance has turned into a tight embrace lately and breaking loose may inflict great pain on Erdogan. Moscow holds the Kurdish card and has influential lobbyists in Turkey’s Islamist elite.
The Kremlin won’t let go Erdogan easily, either. At stake for the Kremlin is the future of the western alliance system at Russia’s gates – nothing more, nothing less.
I think the US still has the upper hand because Turkey’s economy and business elite cannot withstand the kind of pressure Washington can apply on Turkey economically. They’re too westocentric(technologically and idealistically), to the point that the wellbeing of Turkey’s economy rely on the west(EU $ US). Edorgan is now between the Pharaoh and the red sea, if the economy is threaten he becomes highly susceptible to regime change backed by the money elite and even capital flight which can further wreck the economy, if he walks back into the fold of the western nations he’s still not free from regime change assault and nobody outside the western camp will ever take him serious again, making him more subservient in the eyes of Washington, and in Washington once you are deemed feckle the wolves will smell blood. Either way his wrong policy after dropping the zero sum problem policy doomed him, with unpragmatic ambition, he overstepped ruined his political capitals with neighbouring nations and now find himself in the wilderness with dangers lurking everywhere.
It’s impossible for Turkey to back down. The way Erdogan feels he is being treated by Europe and the US will make sure that Turkey’s love affair with the West is over. Leaving NATO and siding with Russia and Iran will make sure that Turkey will keep some influence in the ME, that Kurdistan will never come to be, and that vast economic possibilities will be open for Turkey in the Euro-Asian sphere.
atimes seems to lose its bearings,the west has far too many interests for turkey to be part of nato,first turkey still wants assad to go,second russia needs turkey more than ever and israel will eventually join the sunni alliance,erdogans follys were miscalculated rather than political decision ,he has come out of the serious mistakes,it is important to understand that erdogan looked for better alli the west away from nato.. europe never really gave turkey the complet green light to join the EU
Erdogan change to a right path, leaving the hypocrite wolf, which abased the Turkey pride to a Jewish state level. It is understandable, even Turkey dont agree with Saddam but he never brings enemies to next door. It makes Turkey a safe place today. Regional stability and security is very much important to Turkey than far friend doubtful of their honesty. Erdogan might as well alliance with Iran, Pakistan, Russia, Euroasia states , Syria and Lebanon. These sre most intelligent and honest alliance than the wolf alliance. Turkey would not scare about their economy because its independent state. The coup has the good implication to remove enemy within, the hypocrites cause most failures to ME. Turkey is to clear all US dollar, replace with gold. Europe is still dependent on Turkey, otherwise they face inflation. Turkey will be stronger in near future would be respected by his new rival, US.
in your scenario, what stops him from fully alligning with Iran and Russia (and China for that matter)?
China will be with Turkey all the way too.
It was always delusional to believe this. "The dismantling of Kemalist state wedded to militant nationalism was expected to make Turkey more amenable to western influence. So, the West hailed him as a role model for the New Middle East – a democratically elected Islamist serving western geopolitical interests."
Erdogan, has played one bad hand after another———-the fool thinks he is so special BUT all he is deep down is a Islamist fool!!
Overall, not a bad article. But two minor cavils:
"The Turkish-Israeli relationship, which used to be a quasi-alliance, fractured even as Erdogan began supporting Hamas and sponsoring the Muslim Brotherhood. This hurt US interests very much, since the Turkish-Israeli axis was crucial to American strategies in the Middle East."
Washington may have a problem with Hamas, but the they didn’t have one with the Ikwan generally. Remember: they favored ‘régime change’ in both Egypt and Syria, which had (or, in the case of Syria, would have had) the effect of bringing the Ikwan to power.
"Erdogan might still have succeeded but for the Russian intervention in September 2015 … For the first time in its ancient history, Turkey had to contend with a superior power in its backyard."
Also not accurate. The Russian Empire and the Ottoman Empire were almost constantly at war in the Caucasus and Ukraine for centuries. True: until the 1950s, Russia never had a presence in Syria. But they definitely fought their share of battles against the Turks elsewhere.
"mentoring the Islamic State and Al Qaeda affiliates in Syria." This is stated with almost unequivocal certainty. Same as " began supporting Hamas and sponsoring the Muslim Brotherhood". Are these statements incontrovertible facts? Whereas, you also stated " Erdogan believes the US masterminded the coup …" which gave the US the benefit of the doubt. This is not a balance article.
Anyway, Erdogan would need to do a balancing act and weigh his decisions carefully. If he could last for another 3 or 5 years, the circumstances may be different. Trump may get a 2nd term and there may be different world order in the future.
It is a lesson for all in that anyone who tries to fit in bigger shoes or tries to live beyond their means invariably comes to grief. Big power ambitions don’t suit a small State like Turkey on any day and the Ottoman days dream is likely remain one as such. Krish
Turkey is Rising, so are her neighbours. The time is that of The East. Times are changing: Europe needs good relations with the East, on its own and not as a poodle of the USA. Turkey is the doorway between the East and the West. China will do whatever it possibly can to keep the present set-up in Turkey, to keep this bridge open between the two continents.
U nailed it.
Well said