North Korea may be so convinced that its strategic position vs. the US has changed for the better that it might be willing to step back from the brink of nuclear war and settle for “practical equilibrium” with the US.
Robert Carlin, a veteran Korea analyst writing for website 38 North, says that since two successful ICBM launches last July, Pyongyang may have come to the heady conclusion that it has reached the “final stage” in bolstering the nuclear force.
“It has even explicitly laid out a final goal, a “practical equilibrium” with the United States. What that means exactly we do not know, though presumably Pyongyang has something specific in mind,” Carlin wrote in an analysis posted on Tuesday by the specialist website on North Korea.
Carlin believes this may present an opportunity for North Korea and its adversaries “to stabilize the situation, that is, take a first step toward entering into longer-term negotiations that wrestle with the core issues.”
But the former State Department intelligence honcho cautions that a volatile diplomatic landscape and misperceptions on both sides could still lead to catastrophic miscalculation.
“One problem not well understood is that the North Koreans believe recent developments in their nuclear weapons program have boosted them to a level of invulnerability, and that as a result, Washington — whatever it might say — is without options to counter them,” Carlin wrote.
He warns that such a view could tempt the regime to take “one more fatal step” that triggers a US military response from a US president who doesn’t grasp North Korea’s real motives. Carlin says the “step” might involve a further demonstration of the North’s nuclear capability. He doesn’t say what — but he is clearly talking about another nuclear or missile test of unknown scale.
“Watching events in Washington, it would not be surprising if the North has concluded that the President is too weak and embattled to take decisive action in response,” Carlin warned.
On the upside, Carlin says the swirl of misperceptions could just as easily lead to defusing the crisis.
“In my view, the North is carefully laying the foundation for declaring a victory on the first half (the nuclear buildup) of Kim Jong-un’s March 2013 two-line policy (byungjin) and then turning the focus to the other half—the economy,” Carlin said.
“We don’t have to believe or disbelieve that this is Kim’s real line of March. All we need do is watch to see how he proceeds in the next few months, and judge whether developments provide an opportunity for both sides to step back long enough to explore how to stabilize the situation, that is, take a first step toward entering into longer-term negotiations that wrestle with the core issues,” he added.
China has put fourth a proposal, supported by Russia and apparently South Korea. The proposal is for NK to suspend its nuclear and missile program and the US would suspend it non-stop military exercises in the region. Then negotiations would begin with an aim to finally achieve an end to the war, which is still technically on. A peace treaty guaranteed by the UN Security Council in the spirit of the Iran nuclear deal would include denuclearization of the peninsula and the normalization of relations of the US, SK, and Nk. This is truly win-win, and Trump is probably hearing it from Xi Jinping and when he meets Putin in Vietnam. In fact, he will hear this everywhere. This would be a big win for the world.
the US sees no money in peace so they’ll be against that
North Korea would not accept a Chinese proposal to denuclearise. They truly believe that nuclearisation is the only way for them to be on equal terms.
And if you read more about the Iran deal you will realize that it has not reigned in Iran’s ambitions to rule and become very powerful.
What alot of people don’t realize is that American military power is what keeps the world in check. And without it, it is scary to imagine what some of these countries would become.
Money is only a small part of the whole story.
Mainly it is about keeping other countries in check (preventing them from growing into monsters) and maintaining order.
Of course the order maintained works in the interests of America but it also benefits and protects huge chunks of the planet.
If you read AT you might be forming an opinion that China would be a better ruler of the world with its win win theory. But if left unchecked China would very likely grow ugly.
Personally I’m glad that America has the courage to maintain order in the world and make sure that other countries grow in a good way.
If you look back into the distant past you will find even worse horrific behavior from both China and Russia.
And the reason they are as they are today is because of the US.
North Korea is a strange place (a bit like Russia some 40 years ago) and I don’t think this because of western demonizing media. It’s a fact.
Trump wants to put an end to this. If China really cared they would have stopped feeding North Korea many years back.
Thank God Trump has the balls to face it head on now.