If North Korea launched a missile with a nuclear weapon toward an American city or military installation, how much warning time would the US have? It remains unclear, but with the latest North Korean launch, we can be sure that warning time is decreasing and the threat of war is increasing – perhaps in tandem, as North Korean technological prowess grows.
This is the high-anxiety situation that faces the US President, Secretary of Defense and Joint Chiefs of Staff. It is not new.
The North Korean problem evokes the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941 (December 8 in Japan). In a few days, the United States will remember those who perished on that fateful day 76 years ago. But beyond the memorials, it is worth examining the situation prior to the war and consider lessons that might relate to today’s problem.
In the 1930s, the US was not the dominant force in the Pacific. Our land forces were small and dispersed, and our naval force was made up mostly of old ships that were no match for Japan’s fleet. As the ‘30s and the Japanese threat progressed, Americans became more – not less – isolationist and willing to turn a blind eye to our westernmost holdings.
Congress and the administration, however, were not. In 1934, Congress passed the Vinson-Trammel Act, providing emergency appropriations to build 65 destroyers, 30 submarines, one aircraft carrier, and six cruisers. In 1937 and 1938, naval expansion received another boost with additional authorizing legislation, and in 1940 Congress passed the Two-Ocean Navy Act – also known as the 70 Percent Act because it increased the size of the navy by 70%. At the very height of the influence of the isolationist America First Committee, Congress nonetheless approved seven new battleships, 18 aircraft carriers, 29 cruisers, 115 destroyers and 42 new submarines. By then, America was expecting big trouble on two fronts and was ready to get ready. But Congress was late – most of these ships would not come online until 1943.
At present, there is no strong Congressional activity, or any proposal from the administration that would upgrade the design of an area-wide explosive vehicle to knock down enemy missiles
If there is an analogy, it is that the United States can see the missile threat from North Korea rising – as it saw the threat from Japan rising – but has not even reached 1934 in planning to meet it.
The US has not developed defenses that can be considered sufficiently reliable or capable against a multiple North Korean missile launch. The US is heavily invested in hit-to-kill technology, meaning the enemy missile would be destroyed by a high-speed projectile that rams it directly. This compares to an area-wide explosion designed to be used against aircraft, exploding relatively near the threat, releasing hard pellets (often made from tungsten carbide) with explosive force that rip up the incoming aircraft.
The benefit of hit-to-kill is that it would cause less collateral damage than using an area-wide explosion in space. The downside is that hit-to-kill is a largely unproven and possibly inadequate missile defense array that does not cover all possible targets and may not work.
At present, there is no strong Congressional activity, or any proposal from the administration that would upgrade the design of an area-wide explosive vehicle to knock down enemy missiles.
There has long been a debate whether Roosevelt “let” the Pearl Harbor debacle happen to provide him with the political room to declare war on Japan, knowing the Axis would also be obliged to declare war on the United States. Recent research shows that the US government certainly had a plan to be provocative, definitely had enough intercepts to know an attack was coming, and that one of the targets was Hawaii and Pearl Harbor. The admiral in charge of the fleet in Hawaii, RA Husband E. Kimmel, and LTG Walter Short, were held accountable, relieved of duty and demoted in rank on December 16, 1941. While there is evidence that important intelligence was not shared with them, it is also true that both failed to prepare Pearl Harbor for a possible attack and did nothing to move ships out of harm’s way, or even man anti-aircraft systems and pay attention to radar scans that showed the Japanese air armada heading for them.
The US cannot afford the same failures when the threat is nuclear.
Because of the shortcoming of missile defense and the fact that North Korea seems unresponsive to persuasion in the form of three aircraft carrier task forces and sorties by B-1 bombers off the North Korean coast, President Trump’s options are bleak: wait for a real North Korean attack with the risk of something far worse than Pearl Harbor, or preempt if preparations look threatening. No matter how you look at it, the threat is circa 1941, while our preparations are stuck in the mid-1930s.
Taking a lesson from history, meanwhile, Hawaii is restarting regular tests of its air raid siren system, last heard from during the Cold War.
Stephen Bryen and Shoshana Bryen co-authored this article. Shoshana Bryen is Senior Director of the Jewish Policy Center and has more than 30 years experience as a defense policy analyst.
Both Kim Jung-un and Putin are playing games with Americas own grown paranoia and kicking the countries fragile psyche when it comes to outsiders. The 21st century wars are not going to be fought with massive military might but with nerds eating pizza, drinking cola and sitting at keyboards, as the US political system has already discovered to its cost. The USA played this game, via the CIA, for decades in the second half of the 20th century and other countries have learnt from this and are now applying it, very succesfully, to America. It really doesn’t matter if the DPRK’s missiles can or cannot technically damage the USA physically, they can damge the USA’s psyche hugely, as we are seeing. Trumps own lack of diplomatic/military/historical knowledge plays into their hands nicely and his own narcacistic personalaty adds to the poor responce as the US looses face and influence around the world.
Stupid Yankee. Your illegal (and btw, unpunished) war in Iraq and Libya made sure NK will never trust you in any negotiations. Now you want to start a preemtive war in Asia to protect your dumb asses at Asia’s expense. Well FK you, go home where you belong and stay there, then NK will automatically become Asian’s own problem to solve and solve they will, theres your FKing answer.
If you don’t know how to lead world to peace, at least have the decency to know your shortcomings and get the F*K out of the way before others spank you to it.
Pretty entertaining BS from SB and SB, as usual.
I envy those Defense Policy Analysts at the Jewish Policy Center for the superb entertainment they have been getting under the BS (Brilliant Stewardship) of its Senior Director in the form of Defense Policy Analysis.
I’m sure the world would be even better served if SB would make some minor changes to some names and titles at JPC to reflect the amazing talents in churning out BS political jokes.
Imagine how wonderful it would be if I could rewrite the 2nd paragraph as:
I envy those Delusional Policy Analysts at the Joker’s Policy Center for the superb entertainment they have been getting under the BS of its Senile Director in the form of Delusional Policy Analysis.
Oh and Im not done. How the FK did you develop this attitude that this is all about US and NK while disregarding rest of Asia? No Asians will want this war, FKing yankee. Its the freaking yankee bootlickers politicans in Japan SK and Australia’s overreliance on you that helped you develop this attitude is it? I said before, Asians really need to be careful allowing too much US "security" influence into rest of Asia. Just see Middle East, North Africa and to a lesser extent tensions in Eastern Europe. Asians need to up the ante and take their own collective security in their own hands, that way even if war does break out they will at least know they did it wrong themselves in the driving seat not because some fuking war addicted yankee cowboy high on his cow literarily rode Asia into a nuclear sunset (in this case)!
I so admire duterte right now. For all his faults at least he’s taking his nations destiny back into its own hands instead of outsource it and relying on these yankees.
This article is trying to push the US’ hand. In case of war, the brunt of the devastation will be borne by the East and Southeast Asian region. The US should not be allowed to make the decision of going to war alone.
What a duet! S & S Bryen and one half it seems having 30 years experience as a Jewish defence policy strategist! Wow!
I am not going to take sides but will stay neutral.
All I ask you simply, is wherein your CV does anything make you an expert on the Oriental mind?
The modern military strategist should be objective and have a binary mind, should have both an Occidental mindset as well as an Oriental mindset. In this modern post WWII era Western hegemony is no longer the preferred case nor acceptable model. And the U.S. which has not won a major war since WWII, and in particular lost absolutely in the Orient, should not assumed it will surely win.
Modern wars are won or lost at the stage of the ‘mind games’. You are assured to lose however when you are condenscending and self-righteous and grossly understate or underestimate the ability and capacity and most of all the resolve of the enemy.
It is essential that you know your enemy! Take the examples of Napoleon and Hitler in relation to the rustic plebeian Russians. In modern mind games the military strategist on both sides of the ‘confrontation’ should excel not only in Western chess but also Oriental weiqi!
Also the starting point should not be prejudging and self-judging that one is right. No one is right or wrong in war but both are equally to blame. Or, are children not taught that in U.S. primary schools. Or, at Sunday school that we are all God’s creatures big or small or different, and that we are all entitled to our space on Earth!
The starting point should always be like a good doctor from the symptoms establish the cause of the ailment or disease. So here the military strategists and analysts should in seeking a cure, instead of chopping off limbs or cutting out organs, as a preliminary prognosis and diagnosis, be critically evaluating what were the causes, the genesis of the current impasse and state of red alert for nuclear war. Why is North Korea acting like that? Why is the U.S. acting like that!
In the nuclear age, you cannot afford to have people who act like Napoleon and Hitler. The U.S of today is imperialist in making their self-proclaimed God ordained threats and demands all over the globe, just like Napoleon and Hitler did. For the U.S to assume that it is the prosecutor, judge and jury would be surely foolish! Why? If it goes to war with North Korea it automatically goes to war with China and Russia.
I am no friend of South Korea. But I am no friend of the U.S. either. In fact, I am no friend of anyone who is finger itchy to press the nuclear buttons.
What is required is an independent psychoanalyst cum psychiatrist to medically examine both the ‘minds’ of the U.S. as well as North Korea. Until we get the medical results back, we should consider both countries as equally mental as anything.
In the meantime we should have a truly neutral referee saying to both parties that until they both calm down both should be subject to an AVO (Apprehended Violence Order) and both should keep away from each other and not talk to each other except through and within the august chambers of the United Nations.
What I am trying to say is that the rest of the world should not be put at risk or be imperilled because two ‘monkeys’ want to play ‘soldiers at war’.
This dude is a clueless fool and loves to make up stories about conflict——the man loves misery———that is how the dude rings the register!!
Correct Esby, the Yugoslavian mess was a US/NATO terrorist plot
"If North Korea launched a missile with a nuclear weapon toward an American city or military installation"
See, this is the problem with articles like this. NK is not in anyone’s wildest dreams going to launch a nuclear weapon against the US. US writers always assume leaders of countries like NK or Iran are suicidal and that as soon as they have the ability, they plan to drop their one nuclear weapon on the most powerful nuclear armed state which has proven it will use such weapons even when it is completely unnecessary.
It is to be remembered that the US invaded the Hawaiian Kingdom, deposed the lawful government, imposed a puppet regime and lawlessly annexed an independent country. The US has no moral standing to protest a state protecting itself from US aggression. Pearl Harbor wasn’t the first sneak attack on Hawaii. The USS Boston in January 1893 was. Leave NK alone and see what happens. NK has committed far fewer war crimes than either the US or Israel. All empires fail, we are simply waiting for the US empire to collapse, as it should and must. All the US population needs is a border patrol and a coast guard. Capitalism needs an empire. Americans don’t.
It is somewhat boring to read the biased comments here. The hate America crowd ignore the good of America anButd that’s OK because it renders their opinions impotent of general influence except as cheerleading like minded bias. But for serious problem solvers who think long term and who objectively observe activity in the world, Xi Jinping’s strategy for world domination avoids armed conflict which is refreshing especially when compared to Mao and some others. Donald Trump has revealed his leaning is to disconnect from the America that saw itself as world policeman and/or leader of the west based one world order. Trump’s task is more difficult than Xi’s because of American democracy, but Trump has demonstrated he is up to the task as powerful forces try on a daly basis to take him down. There’s more Xi Jinping in Trump than people realize. They are jusy in different political environs. While the America haters spew their venom, they are interestingly unaware of the transgressions of any other country, currently or historically.
Are you one of the pizza eaters, coke drinker glued to the computer
Victor Njoku I retired at 58, just designed and built our own house, so taking a breather before our next venture early in 2018. Lots of time on our hands to read what’s happening in the world and try and understand some of it in a little more depth and from more perspectives than we’ve had time to do in the past.
Qian Deng Yeah baby… nailed it… Yankee go home… try filling the pot holes and paying my pension
Americans are not trust worthy. Building fake stories about Iraq they destructed the whole country & committed mass genocide in Iraq. They are the ones responsible for destabilising Asia for their benefits & proving supremacy in the region. Times have changed. N Korea could prove to be very nasty if Americans try their dirty games here.
Are the Bryens serious? China has stated that she won’t allow a preemtive strike on NK, so, not only the US would be responsible for the initial civilian loss in Seoul and Japan, but may be the entire US. The mentality of "do what I say, not what I do", along with the betrayal and free interpretation of peace treaties by the US, have cornered the regime to clinch to the nuclear weapons, because they know that it’s the only guarantee that they won’t be attacked. Think of a bully on the school, asking you to drop the bat while he carries a bat, and all the catcher gear.
let’s all pray no world wars shall ever happen again…… coz this time, it would really be more horrible n devastating…. imagine the fire power of all the super powers that will collide
After what America and allies have done to Iraq , Vietnam and Afghanistan it is clear their hunger for power and thirst for blood , their main aim seems to be selling arms and looting oil or money and power in simple words , on top of that now they have half crazy Trump , on the other hand we have wounded and vicious Russia , third front we have richest cash master China also looking to dominate the world , Enslaving Tibet and threatening to take over north east of India , using Pakistan a rogue nation in encircling India , with an almost dictator like in US , Russia and China Modi has surrendered to US and has moved a bit away from Russia , fifth dictator of NK is feeling threatened and is showing signs of agressiveness , Behind it all we have injustice and thirst for money n power , with America being a bankrupt country with trillions in debt to the world and spending out of limits wants world to pay for its misadventures indefinitely, the day dollar is dropped as trading currency America will be finished , and the most likely trading currency may become Yuan , NK and SK given a chance can co exist in peace if America shuts up , China India and Russia can become allies and world can prosper on humanity , this bankrupt America instead of improving its economy keeps on making designs to keep the world under threat and uses Britain and Europe to its advantage, the only thing wrong is the Muslim Jihad , and who is behind the supporting of such rogue countries who are helping this devil is America again , Muslims have now spread their misadventures to Africa again being looted by Americaany , I am not against or pro any nation or creed , I want peace and prosperity to prevail , and behind most of the problems of world I find paranoid America everywhere, I hope sense prevails China India and Russia unite so does Sourh and North Korea and a bankrupt and broke nation America is shown the mirror
I agree with u Simon Gibson
North Korea is legitimately resilient against western hegemony, and sensitive to protect her sovereignty. The west divided their country and have provocative military presence in South Korea. If the west sincerely agrees to WinWin policy and let all nations live with sovereignty and dignity, much of tensions will be reduced.
It took only 2 atomic bombs dropped at both Hiroshima and Nagasaki to bring Japan on her knees that ended WWll. One nuke bomb at today’s capacity is so many times powerful as that bombs. One thing is sure, US alone in counter attacking NK’s initial nuke attack can erase all living things in Korea. NK should avoid being stupid that they will be winning an all out nuke war with US per se. The Fat Boy should come to his senses before doing this horrible thing.