Airplane manifests say much about what presidents are thinking when visiting a nation. Lots of business titans on board means one set of priorities; loads of national-security or human-rights types portend others.
In the case of Donald Trump’s arrival in Beijing on Wednesday, the tell is who’s not on Air Force One: China-bashing advisor Peter Navarro.
It’s long been disturbing that an economist famed for a documentary titled “Death by China” has US President Trump’s ear on America’s most important economic relationship. Navarro and his trade-war-drum schtick being left behind suggests a measure of realpolitik has seeped into the Trump policy bubble.
It probably won’t last, though. Navarro’s policy prescriptions may be back in favor once the negotiator-in-chief returns to Washington largely empty-handed and bombarded anew by swirling scandals.
Trump’s sales pitch was doing for Americans what the “Art of the Deal” guru did for Trump International. One year on, he has zero legislative wins and a tax cut plan that limped across the starting line. Nor are efforts to pull a Ferdinand Marcos and put political enemies in jail working out. Trump’s base wants him to return from his Asia jaunt with a slew of job-creating deals.
That didn’t happen in Japan, despite Trump’s hot bromance with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. It’s even less likely in Moon Jae-in’s South Korea. And it doesn’t seem to be on the cards with China’s Xi Jinping, who’s already positioning his economy for the years after Trump vacates the Oval Office.
Odds are, frustration will lead Trump back to Navarro’s zero-sum worldview of 45% tariffs. Abe is demurring on Trump’s bilateral trade push, while Moon isn’t proving the pushover Trump hoped. Trump’s claims that he and Xi enjoy the “best relationship of any president-president” look hollow as China goes its own way on North Korea.
At every failed legislative turn, Trump resorts to executive actions that make headlines and remind everyone who’s boss. Irked that Xi isn’t falling into line, Trump may follow this pattern and move to choke the flow of Chinese goods.
That would be yet another self-inflicted wound. The first was killing the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Turning his back on history’s biggest trade pact, one incorporating 40% of world gross domestic product, was a colossal Trump gift to Xi. Another wound: reneging on the multilateral Paris climate-change deal.
China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Belt and Road Initiative and massive investments in renewable energy, artificial intelligence and other industries of tomorrow suggest the Trump presidency is but a blip on Xi’s radar screen
Ian Bremmer of Eurasia Group isn’t trolling Trump with his “China Won” Time magazine cover story and #AmericaSecond hashtag – he’s explaining why Trump has so little leverage as he arrives in Beijing. China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, Belt and Road Initiative and massive investments in renewable energy, artificial intelligence and other industries of tomorrow suggest the Trump presidency is but a blip on Xi’s radar screen.
Sigmund Freud seemed to be in the room recently when Trump referred to Xi as “king” of China. Xi knows full well he’ll be at the helm long after Trump vacates the Oval Office, whether that’s in 2021 or sooner, given the scandals and indictments flying the way of his White House. Since Xi’s new Politburo Standing Committee contains no clear successor, there’s every reason to think he may angle to stay on beyond 2022.
Xi’s “Made in China 2025” vision is in stark contrast with Trump’s determination to drag America back to 1985. China is putting its full weight – and huge financial firepower – behind raising its technological prowess and industrial innovation. It’s promoting domestic brands, working to become a leader in green manufacturing techniques and other technologies to make China a major player in high-speed transportation, medical devices, robotics and space travel.
Trump is working to make coal great again, reversing course on free trade, cutting taxes for billionaires, freeing bankers to generate the next financial crisis, harping on about exchange rates and threatening trade wars. It’s a ploy to return to the global system that existed in 1985, back when currency tweaks and tariffs could bend everyone to Washington’s whims – and it won’t work.
So, Xi will roll out the red carpet, show Trump a good time and feign cooperation while Air Force is in Beijing. History is likely to prove, though, that it’s the calm before the trade storm to come.
US should stop QE, purchase of its own treasuries and creating false demand for the U$. The U$ is being manipulated, overvalued and that accounts for most of the trade deficit. US runs deficits with most of its trading partners, overspend on its military and is uncompetitive.
A weaker U$ will reduce imports and boost exports. Market forces will reduce the trade deficits and increase employment in the US.
Impossible, because the empire is doomed to go down the drain and the course of history must take place in the way it happened to other empires before.
that is your informed opinion I suppose?
America will remain a great power for many years to come.
There’s mine.
The US Military is what maintains order in the world.. Personally I feel better knowing that it is as strong as it is.
When Trumps term is over there will be another president in his place.
It isn’t because China is planning for some future glory that it will achieve all its goals and it isn’t so bad if Trump and Co wish to bring back the 80’s..
In any case America is still a powerful nation which maintains order in the world and it will remain so. Especially if future leaders manage to project the modern America which is already being created in many states independently of Washington.
In the US, President has lost his power. He has been destroyed by the “Deep State”. His administration commit treason against him and leaks information to the media. There are Impeachment plots against President Trump and even to unseat him using other methods.
When Trump arrive in China, President Trump should not bark and do “revolver” diplomacy. Asia has had enough of the US experience. So many Asian countries has been victims of US assassinations, covert operations, regime changes, and wars. The US is now publicly threatening to erase North Korea and we all know this could result that will kill millions of the US “friends” in South Korea, and worst case contaminate North Asia for decades.
President Trump should be humble and respectful. Trump knows Japan and China is the one borrowing the US the most money and keep the US from bankruptcy.
Asia should hope for the best, but prepare to be 100% independent of US imports, the US financial markets, and the US dollars.
Another lame article by this biased writer: instead of attacking President Trump for trade policies that he had nothing to do with he forgets about what President Geroge Herbet Bush started that allowed China to become the PLAYER that they are today. Bush then passed the baton on to President William Jefferson Clinton who was only to happy to sell out the American worker and destroy American manufacturing so US Corporations stock prices could soar to the sky. There is so much blame to go around in the selling out of America BUT Mr Pesek does not have the "Guts, Smarts, are Wisdom" to write a article on why the American Politicians sold out the country to the American elite and American Corporations for "GELT" and power.As for a trade war with China————it is not going to happen———–President Trump is smart enough to know that China holds the Queen in any trade war so his meeting with President Xi will be a love fest and China will give Trump some assurances on trade and will BUY some stuff to make President Trump a winner on his Asian tour—————one thing about President Trump that is discounted by Trump haters like Mr Pesek———-the man is blessed with "Yiddish-a- Kupp"———–that has made him what he is today.
China cannot afford to "go its own way " on North Korea " . To put it another way , Xi owns yhe North Korea problem, his client state ( Kim ) continues to cause Xi to lose face – this gives President Trump the upper hand bearing in mind Xi’s ambition to be seen as the regional power center in Asia .
Stuart Budgen
I quote nobel prize winners, Wall Street experts, American think tanks etc. It is their opinions.
Can you clarify why did US create and supply arms to ISIS if it is protecting the world? Why did opium production tripled in Afghanistan when the US took over and Is there really an opiate epidemic killing Americans?
Kim JongUm is right. Trump is a dotard who does not know what he is talking about. He says one thing today, forgets what he has said and says the exact opposite the next day. He creates and nurtured the tension in the Korean Peninsula and blame it on North Korea while at the same time he has two of his most powerful destroyers rammed by cargo ships and 17 of his sailors buried alive. And he boasted that he had sent a most powerful navy and an even more powerful fleet of submarines to subdue North Korea while the powerful fuel navy was heading in the opposite direction.
I think Xi will swat Trump like a bug.
Now Xi has consolidated his power base, he can show the US who the real boss is.
Too late, the US has dug a hole it can never escape from, that’s why many Americans want to go out with a bang, go full bore Carthage, like they never existed.