As US President Donald Trump heads to Asia, the American foreign policy class is holding its breath. The President is, after all, ‘transactional’ – and might ask allies to do something in exchange for US support. The other side of this double-edged insult is that Trump might sell out American principles.
They needn’t worry. The most difficult part of the trip will be forcing a smile if he’s required to wear a Philippine ‘barong’ shirt.
Trump will give a few speeches, and otherwise say the right things about American commitment to the region and “a rules-based order,” and the like. But the audience will be left thinking: “Now show us.” Most Asian nations, and Southeast Asian nations, in particular, are in a bind owing to previous US administrations’ handiwork.
China is tossing around a lot of money, has beefed up its military, and threw down the gauntlet at the 19th People’s Congress. Its patience is not limitless, and it’s getting harder for regional nations to hedge or hold China at bay.
ASEAN and the People’s Liberation Army will be holding their first joint military exercise shortly. The American military is no longer the only show in town.
As important as what Trump does in Asia is what he does after he goes home – to give allies and friends concrete reasons to see the United States as an alternative to Chinese domination.
Some ideas on stalling Chinese domination
Other presidents have given good speeches in Asia – and the US military and business people are active there. But if Trump proposes doing more of the same, it’s a losing trend. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has taken de facto control of the South China Sea and is ready to do the same in the East China Sea. China is increasingly seen as the indispensable economic partner for regional nations – not the United States.
Trump gets plenty of advice, so some more won’t hurt: Once back at the White House, summon Wilbur Ross and the administration’s economic team and tell them to stop picking fights with America’s friends in the region. That’s low hanging fruit that doesn’t matter – and it irks countries that you are expecting to do more defense-wise.
The problem is the PRC. For starters, look for $100 billion in counter-vailing penalties (call them whatever you will) as punishment for intellectual property theft over the last few decades. Don’t bother about what US companies were dumb enough to give up voluntarily. One can’t blame the Chinese for that.
Don’t ignore the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Maybe it was a bad deal, but pulling out left a void – political as much as economic –and China is filling it. Come up with something better – and let the region know.
Next, call in the Department of State – with the economic guys still in the room – and ask if they think supporting free, democratic people on Taiwan is more important than placating an aggressive dictatorship and being able to buy cheap things at Wal-Mart? If not, find some officials who value US principles – and are not so ‘transactional.’
Also, ask the State Department to explain why a coup in Egypt (and a violent one at that) was worse than a coup in Thailand – and warranted humiliating a longstanding and important US ally? The answer will require sophistry. The State Department needs fewer sophists.
With all present, read the Taiwan Relations Act and resolve to live up to it. Stop treating Taiwan and its officials as if they’re South American drug lords. Allow Taiwan’s military officers in the US to wear their uniforms, and end the State Department’s self-imposed ban on active duty American generals visiting Taiwan. Send the US Navy on port calls and invite Taiwan to next year’s RIMPAC exercise.
While you’re on the subject of RIMPAC, bring in Secretary of Defense Mattis and your uniformed and civilian military advisors, and ask them a few questions.
Finally, use your appointment power and fill all Asia/Pacific positions – and with people who don’t think the last 30 years of Asia policy have been a splendid success.
Ask why the PRC should be invited to RIMPAC – and whether two previous invitations improved Chinese behavior? Put the invitation on hold – at least until PRC ‘repo men’ retrieve the Chinese-made missile transporters from North Korea that make it nearly impossible to detect an ICBM being readied for launch towards Los Angeles.
Then ask why it will take over 30 years to build a 355-ship navy as your Under-Secretary of Navy recently said? Find some people who think it can be done faster – as it can be.
Ask US Navy brass about the Littoral Combat Ship? A correct answer will involve sailing them back to the US and scrapping them – and building more useful ships instead.
Even the US Marines have some explaining to do: Ask which Asian militaries can do real-world, short-notice amphibious operations with or without the Americans? After 50 years of exercises there ought to be at least one. After the harrumphing subsides, tell the Marine generals to set some smart captains and majors onto the matter. That will take care of things.
By now everyone is trying to make themselves inconspicuous. You might note that the Chinese Communist Party’s 19th Congress made a compelling case that democracy is a failed Western concept. State and Defense Departments have ‘strategic communications’ staff. Ask what it is they actually do?
Finally, use your appointment power and fill all Asia/Pacific positions – and with people who don’t think the last 30 years of Asia policy have been a splendid success. It seems like you’re counting on evaporation to ‘drain the swamp’. That will take forever.
Do some of these things and you’ll give America’s friends in Asia reason to believe what you said while visiting.
The US can have good relations with Asia if they change their behavior. No more US bullying, sanctions, regime changes and wars. The US must wake up to the new reality, Asia has had an amazing growth in their economies the last decades. The growth is expected to continue. China is no longer only making cheap copies, but become a leader in developing new technology. What Asia need is positive cooperation and assistance in reducing poverty, if the US assist, Asia might gradually forget about the misery created by US “Imperialism” in the region.
What must be discussed is how to solve the North Korean issue peacefully. The US should also be concerned about their partner, the regional nuclear superpower Pakistan, who experience political and economic challenges.
Boy oh Boy———-I wanted to read this article BUT I could not bring myself after a few lines————you want to know why the States are in trouble———–just read this garbage by a man that is clueless about how the world works in 2017. The Middle Kingdom continues to march forward!!
By withdrawing its military from around the world, the US can easily find out how many real friends it actually has.
For a piece of writing to be respected, for a message to influence a reader, the article must be objective and not totally one sided as this so call senior researcher seems to write one article after another. After reading the first few lines one can tell that the writing is meant for the rubbish dump and not a serious piece of strategic or scholary research work. No doubt that he gets some monetary reward for the article being publish here but what a waste when its not going to be paid much attention by anybody. All the points you suggested and recomended will come to naught.
The U.S. trade deficit with China is overstated. Official trade statistics compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis record a U.S. net trade deficit with China of $309 billion in 2016, or 1.7 percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). In reality, it is much lower than that. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has pioneered value-added methods for tabulating trade that paint a more accurate picture based on country of origin for each of an export’s components. This dataset shows that in 2011, the U.S. net trade deficit with China, based on the actual Chinese and American value added to final goods and services traded between the two nations, was more than 40 percent lower than the traditional trade statistics suggest.
While data for recent years is not available, if we assume a stable ratio between traditional and value-added data, then the adjusted U.S. trade deficit in 2016 with China would come down from $309 billion to $169 billion. This is still a high number, but a much more sensible and useful starting point for discussions about policies to reduce U.S. trade imbalances with China.
China is always willing to deal and sucess will depend upon fair terms of offer in accordance with free market conditions. Everyone hops that USA will be reasonable.
and spcially India the racist state
Some of this might have been useful advice in the 1970s, but that train has left the station some time ago. That’s what happens if you spend too much time in think tank land. China "bullies", China "dominates", US has "principles". Most of the world looks at it the other way round.
Not even one after counting the real numbers.
The writer is a well known C.I.A. ex operative and nowadays he continues the same policy which is =make america first.
The american writer is another faithful servant of US hegemony which is going down the drain by the day.
LMAO
Saleem Ibrahim Kapoorwala dream on
US is not interested in soft power. It is the world’s No1 proponent of the Iron Fist. Anyone who is considered a threat will get the Iron Fist. No jaw jaw, just punch punch. With Trump, it will be more punches thrown than words spoken. And it will bad for the world.