As Donald Trump angles to make America’s debt burden great again, he has some finessing to do with his bankers.
No, not Russia in this case, but China and Japan, both by far the biggest holders of U.S. Treasuries with a combined $2.3 trillion.
South Korea’s $95 billion stockpile also has folks in Seoul curious about President Trump adding at least $1.5 trillion of debt for giant tax cuts America doesn’t need.
Trump admitted as much on Oct. 28, while touting news of 3% economic growth in the third quarter despite two devastating hurricanes.
He tweeted that the numbers were “GREAT” and that the U.S. is having its “best consecutive Q’s in years!”
But it’s not like the U.S. is flush – it has a $666 billion deficit. Why, then, budget-busting tax cuts that increase inflation risks, imperil Washington’s credit rating and irk his bankers?
Those financiers are sure to have a number of questions when Trump’s team arrives in Beijing, Tokyo, Seoul and Manila ($36 billion of US debt) in the days ahead.
Bottom line, Trump has some financial diplomacy to do in Asia these next couple of weeks.
There are two problems with the Republican Party’s fiscal adventurism.
One, the estimates for increased debt are wildly conservative. Many Washington think tanks figure the range will more likely be in the $2.2 trillion to $2.7 trillion range, jeopardizing AAA status.
Two, Trump and fellow Republicans assume their Asian bankers will dutifully double down on dollar bets. That could be a dangerous supposition.
As China’s Xi Jinping digs in for another five-year term – with no heir apparent in sight – Washington’s top investor may not be in a giving mood.
Nor might he be very forgiving about tax changes that widen America’s budget deficit and threaten the value of Beijing’s $1.2 trillion of Treasuries. Trump, after all, has on more than one occasion raised the specter of defaulting on debt to gain leverage in negotiations.
Even before Trump, Beijing had a complicated relationship with the fiscal vulnerabilities its dollar holdings pose. In 2009, for example, then-Premier Wen Jiabao raised concerns about Washington’s giant post-crisis stimulus.
“We have made a huge amount of loans to the United States,” Wen said. “Of course, we are concerned about the safety of our assets. To be honest, I’m a little bit worried.”
He urged Washington “to honor its words, stay a credible nation and ensure the safety of Chinese assets.” Those words proved prescient by August 2011, when Standard & Poor’s downgraded the US for the first time.
The US, it’s often said, built a strong and innovative economy on a hill. But Asia holds the mortgage and might not take kindly to Trump’s tax adventure.
Geopolitical intrigue abounds, too. In 2011, Beijing mulled retaliating against then-President Barack Obama’s chumminess with Taiwan. In an editorial, state-run People’s Daily said “now is the time for China to use its financial weapon to teach the U.S. a lesson.”
Just as Japan wondered years earlier. In 1997, then-Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto dropped this bombshell on markets: “Several times in the past, we have been tempted to sell large lots of U.S. Treasuries.”
Hashimoto admitted that tense auto-industry negotiations of the early 1990s had some Tokyo lawmakers pushing for this nuclear option.
Shinzo Abe seems far less of a risk for this White House. The prime minister is the top Trump sycophant among world leaders.
Determined to stay in Trump’s good graces – and avoid his wrath on Twitter – Abe could always pledge to use public pension funds to help Washington finance tax cuts. The quid pro quo would be to have America’s back against China and North Korea.
But Abe isn’t nearly as popular as his October 22 election victory suggests.
While he craftily exploited an opposition in disarray, his latitude to take big financial risks may be limited. What’s more, Abe’s Trump bromance is backfiring and generating buyer’s remorse among lawmakers.
Trump reneging on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, bashing the weak yen and Toyota on Twitter and provoking Kim Jong-un aren’t winning him much love in Tokyo.
Bottom line, Trump has some financial diplomacy to do in Asia these next couple of weeks.
The US, it’s often said, built a strong and innovative economy on a hill. But Asia holds the mortgage and might not take kindly to Trump’s tax adventure.
The US debt is staggering. You should not look only the US National Debt of 20.4 TRILLION Dollar, but their Total Debt and liabilities 108 TRILLION dollar or to make it more understandable 900622 Dollars per taxpayer! The ten-year US budget show an increase of another 10 TRILLION Dollar, so the light in the end of the tunnel is not sunshine, but a meeting train in the wrong tracks.
Why China has more than a trillion-dollar invested in a country who make sanctions against you and acts of terrorism, puzzles many. What is the future for America’ economy? Sanctions and tariffs will not help the US economy. 10.000 Americans retires daily, and the pension funds is severely underfunded. The US expensive wars are never ending and a huge burden.
The best advice to China; take your money and run. Invest the money in new green energy projects, industry along the New Silk Road, and to reduce poverty to stimulate domestic demand. It is time for Asia to stop funding of US assassinations, insurgencies, regime changes, and wars.
I think the article is one of the few that gives a more balanced view. I have followed quite a few of his writings and do think he is a more serious writer unlike some others whose prejudice and bias are obvious from the start.
Sometime things have to get much worse, before getting better. The deficits, and unfunded liabilities of the U.S. governments (central, state, and local) may need to become more painful before politicians, and the people, realize how wrong they have been for years. And sources of credit (Japan, China, etc.) may suffer a "haircut" if the market and financial forces now reigning do not get real. Think Puerto Rico….
As Vice President Dick Chaney once said ———Deficits, who cares about deficits. Nothing to read and entighten with this article———-just move along!!
"Shinzo Abe seems far less of a risk for this White House. The prime minister is the top Trump sycophant among world leaders.
Determined to stay in Trump’s good graces – and avoid his wrath on Twitter – Abe could always pledge to use public pension funds to help Washington finance tax cuts. "
So true. Abe has bent over backwards for Trump since Day 1, because he bet on Hilary and fear Trump’s revenge. Trump can do whatever he wants with Japan and Abe will always obey.