downward trend

Oil explains about 60% of the variation in 10-year breakeven inflation year to date:


That is what we would expect to observe. As noted on the scatter chart, today’s observation for 10-year breakeven inflation is relatively low for a $54 value WTI oil price.

In fact, the residuals of the regression of 10-year breakeven inflation vs. oil appear to describe a downward trend:

2. 10-year breakeven vs oil

The presence of a downward trend is confirmed by including a trend variable in the regression of oil on breakeven inflation:

3. 10-year breakeven vs oil and linear trend
4. Dependent variable

There are many possible explanations for the deflationary trend net of oil, including technological improvement, changes in the composition of the labor force, and so forth.

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