Poor Japan. While it worries about nuclear strikes from North Korea, it faces an equally potent threat from China: losing its southern islands stretching from Kyushu to Taiwan.
But the danger in this case from China is via osmosis rather than atomic attack.
At immediate risk are the tiny Senkaku islands (Diaoyu to the Chinese) near the southern end of the island chain. China claims these islands even though they have long been under Japanese control.
Since the Senkaku dispute heated up around 2010, China has steadily expanded its fishing fleet, coast guard, and naval activities around the islands.
Chinese ships are in more places, more often, and in greater numbers than the Japanese Coast Guard can handle. China’s air force also routinely intrudes into Japan’s airspace, while harried Japanese jets dutifully scramble to intercept.
In one brazen case of letting Japan know what’s in store, Beijing in August 2016 sent well over 200 fishing boats and 15 coast guard ships to the Senkakus – with China’s navy over the horizon. There was little the outmanned Japanese could do.
Not surprisingly, China reckons it can take the Senkakus whenever it wishes. It’s only a question of time before Chinese ‘fishermen’ land on the Senkakus, and the Chinese Coast Guard dares the Japanese to respond.
And there’s more to it than just the Senkakus. Telegraphing its punches as it usually does, Beijing has quietly stated that the entire island chain, known as the Nansei Shoto in Japan that includes Okinawa, is properly Chinese territory.
Read: Containing China? Some common sense will do just fine
Unfortunately, the Japanese (and Americans) tend to ignore such speculative aggression in hopes Beijing might forget about it. It never does.
But some Japanese do take the Chinese seriously. The Japan Self Defense Force (JSDF) is belatedly establishing a military presence in the Nansei Shoto.
It has built or intends to build small bases on several islands – Yonaguni, Miyako, Ishigaki, and Amami-Oshima. These are nominally for intelligence gathering, but will include anti-ship missiles, and air and missile defenses.
Japan’s air force has added a squadron of F15’s in Naha, Okinawa, and the Japanese navy is modestly stepping up its presence. But the overall effort is uncoordinated rather than melding each service’s unique capabilities into a coherent defensive scheme.
This is a losing strategy and Japan will eventually find itself swarmed and unable to respond. Many Japanese fishermen have already stopped visiting waters around the Senkakus where they fished for decades.
But Japan still has options to prevent being gradually overwhelmed.
First, implement a systematic plan for defending the Nansei Shoto – with the centerpiece being a Joint Task Force (JTF-Nansei Shoto) with the mission of defending the southern islands. This forces the three JSDF services – air, sea and land – to do what they won’t do voluntarily; that is, cooperate.
Then, carry on fortifying the Nansei Shoto, and routinely patrol and exercise in the region.
However, Japan cannot defend its southern islands alone. It needs US forces and when that is factored in, China’s calculus changes drastically and Japanese prospects improve correspondingly.
In 2014, President Obama declared the Senkakus fall under the US-Japan Security Treaty and US officials regularly confirm this. Yet, China continues increasing the size and frequency of naval and air intrusions into Japanese territory.
Hence, more concrete measures are required. Japan and the US need to develop a joint defense plan for the southern islands, and start regular and frequent naval and air patrols and exercises together in the Nansei Shoto region.
This is easy. In September, the USS Reagan carrier group conducted a joint exercise with the Japanese Navy in the East China Sea with an eye on the Korean peninsula. Simply adjust the focus and do more of this.
Meanwhile, US Air Force and Navy fighters can join ASDF fighters scrambling against intruding Chinese warplanes.
And at long last, stop walking on eggshells when it comes to the Senkakus. They either belong to Japan or they do not. And decades of timid behavior have simply put them at risk.
The US Navy and JSDF can immediately start using the two maritime firing ranges near the Senkakus that haven’t been used since Jimmy Carter was President in hopes of improving China’s behavior.
Finally, Japan ought to do something about Chinese political warfare and subversion on Okinawa. Ignoring it won’t make it go away – as the Americans should have learned in the Northern Marianas and Palau.
Announce that these are all just routine activities as called for in the Japan-US Security Treaty. There’s no need to explain. That’s how Beijing does it.
Combined Japanese and US forces operating together are a most difficult deterrent – not least politically – from China’s perspective. Of course China will complain about Japan and its ally defending Japanese territory. That’s nothing new. Nor is it reason to do nothing.
As former US Ambassador to China, James Lilley observed about the Chinese: “First they try to buy you. Then they try to scare you. Then they’re stumped.”
At the end of world war 2, it was agreed by the allies that Japan had to return all teriitories and islands that it siezed from China including the Diaoyu aka Senkakus islands. USA has no right to cede Chinese silands to Japan. If US military might gave it the right, then times have changed now that the South China sea is a no go zone for the US navy. China actions are legal based upon UN post world war 2 declarations and have the right to secure and safeguard its boundaries against encroaching foreign navy vessels .
The unfortunate result of US post WW II arm-twisting to ensure the Pacific remains an American lake.
Actually, the Senkakus are not considered Japanese territory even by the US. In the early 1970s, the Nixon administration gave them to Japan to administer, with the stipulation/suggestion that their legal status should be negotiated between China and Japan. I love Japan and take Mr. Newsham’s concerns seriously, but he cannot make up his own facts.
Moreover, the Senkakus are far to the west of the line of the Ryukyu islands, and can be dealt with without taking seriously the murmurings about the Ryukyus that have emanated from Chinese academics and media (not from government).
Japan, in my opinion, should stop delightedly annoying China and start trying to befriend it. That would be wiser and more productive for all concerned, I believe.
It seems that all the knowledgable people here know about the lies and treachery which resulted in Japan occupying Chinese territory. Too bad we don’t own any of the "free press". Only billionaires have that right.
Grant Newsham should not call himself a researcher. He has simply refused to respect the historical facts relating to the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands. He sounds more like a political apparatchik on the payroll of the usual suspects.
"China claims these islands even though they have long been under Japanese control" After this statement I lost interest in the article
The official statement by US is "We acknowledge the administration of these islands by Japan".
Report sprinkled with misinformation.
KS Chin Japan is not the owner. Then who is the owner? China. Will US flight with China for the island? No.
The US should build its own island in the West Philippine Sea, and dare China to do something about it.
"But some Japanese do take the Chinese seriously."
They take the Chinese seriously, because they know they are aggressor, and they know they are occupying Chinese DiaoYuTai islands, which eventually will be returned to the Chinese people.
One thing I don’t undestand, a supposedly learned man such as Mr Newsham really believe what he writes to be true are does the smarty like to take liberties with facts and the truth?? I guess the smarty thinks all the Asian Times readers are a bunch of uninformed dummies BUT the dummy is Mr Newsham for peddling this garbage!!
Yes poor japan, can’t even takr a piss without uncle sam approval.
On one side, there is Japan, which needs the Chinese consumers.
On the other side, there is China, which has consumers who are not yet patriotic enough to boycott Japanese products, for selfish reasons.
There will be an economic solution, be it in 2040 or later, upon the flavor of Chinese military distinct superiority.
Will China one day be able to defeat the selfishness of the Chinese consumers? I believe the answer is yes. China will do a combination of improving the appeal of domestically produced products, allowing imports from other developed countries to compete with Japanese products, and last to rev up anti-Japanese sentiment to promote patriotism that will influence consumption choices.
It will be easy to rev up anti-Japanese sentiment. Just a few landings on the disputed islands with unarmed civilians will do very well. Fistfights with the Japanese will be televised on Chinese TV. Japanese CEO’s will experience heart attacks.
China really has all the trump cards and Japan will face great difficulties. Instead of relying on Chinese economic implosion, Japan should consider its future being dominated by a powerful China. Stop making land claims against China will be a good start, to be followed by apology the fits the gravity of the atrocities committed by the Japanese grandfathers.
The role of the US is as I have stated many times is very limited as long as a war is possible but has not happened. Under such a circumstance, the compelling role of the US will be to prevent war. The US has this modicum of decency, certainly.
Mr Grant Newsham, are you on the payroll from Japanese government to spread fake news about who has the legitimate right to the Diaoyu Islands? US has no right and business to interfer in South China sea.
I think the ASIA TIMES has repeatedly expressed his political attitude damn clearly. It just wants to persuade the readers that Diaoyu island has under the control by Japan for decades, and it is under the range of Security Treaty between Japan and America. So China should rethink its behavior before takes any action to claim the Diaoyu island. After all China has and will not ally with any other countries to reinforce himself to against some other countries who did not obey the orders of America.
gee, I wonder how much the neo fascist in japan pay mr. newsham to write this sham
NATO wasn’t effective in the 1990’s when the alliance had a oppertunity to make peace with Russia under Yelsin. A organization like NATO needs a enemy and create a perpeual state of cold war in eastern europe. Thats not a scenario that needs to be repeated in asia.