“There are no permanent friends or foes in international relations.”
If this diplomacy maxim is to be believed, current times offer a perfect opportunity to test it. US President Donald Trump has thrown internationalism to the wind and is sailing under the flag of populist nationalism, so a post-American world order seems to be in the offing. American partnerships and alliances around the world are changing and no more so than in Pakistan whose ties with Russia are experiencing a new cordiality.
High-level visits between both countries are making news. On September 25, elite Russian and Pakistani military commandos began two-week-long joint counterterrorism exercises, dubbed “Friendship 2017.” After tracing the history of their bilateral ties, it’s evident that the reluctant romance of Islamabad and Moscow usually begins when Pakistan-US ties are frayed, and ends when those ties are mended. Though there are many elements in the bilateral equation, the US factor dominates. So, will the recent cordiality survive if Pakistan-US relations return to normal?
The answer relies on two factors: Pakistan’s art of diversifying its bilateral relations and Russia’s adroitness in balancing between India and Pakistan.
Pick a policy and wear it like armor
Pakistan’s foreign-policy dilemma has been its dependence on a major power while balancing its turbulent relations with arch-rival India. Instead of diversifying its relations with other major powers, Pakistan has always chosen to pick one and wear it like armor. There is nothing wrong with this realpolitik, except its inevitable consequence: earning masters rather than friends. The need for Pakistan to revisit its foreign policy has long been emphasized. However, in the face of friction between Islamabad and Washington, Pakistan’s reactionary approach guides it towards Russia.
Moscow forged friendly ties with Pakistan but its closeness with India mars the Pakistan-Russian link. From 1947 to 1950 and from 1965 to 1969 the Soviet Union and Pakistan cooperated in the fields of education, trade and commerce, and culture. The Soviet Union played a proactive role in ending Indo-Pakistan War of 1965 by facilitating the 1966 Tashkent Agreement. Pakistan Steel Mills became a hallmark of their friendship in the 1970s. However, its stance on the Indo-Pakistan War of 1971 and the vetoing of Pakistan’s resolutions on East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, damaged bilateral ties. The relationship further deteriorated after the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979.
A strategic diplomatic four-way dance
The chill continued until Russia began to consider Pakistan strategically important. In 2005, Indo-US cooperation started to increase which paved the way for the 2008 Indo-US Civil Nuclear Agreement. The Kremlin had warned New Delhi about its growing cordiality with Washington, while the differences arose between Pakistan and the US over the so-called War on Terror.
In 2011, the Salala check-post attack by US-led Nato forces sunk bilateral relations to their lowest ebb. Russia condemned the attack and the same year President Vladimir Putin publicly supported Pakistan’s bid for membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. In August 2013, Russian Colonel-General Vladimir Chirkin visited Pakistan and discussed issues relating to defense and security operations.
Defence cooperation hit a milestone in 2014 when Russia lifted its embargo on arms sales to Pakistan, which made headlines in New Delhi. Despite India’s strong opposition, Russia delivered four Mi-35M assault helicopters to Pakistan this year. Negotiations for the delivery of S-35 warplanes and the “Friendship 2017” military exercises have enraged New Delhi. Yet Russia currently seems to be effectively balancing its relations between India and Pakistan. And Moscow has announced joint military drills with India from October 19 to 29.
Russia’s vision is clear — to assert itself on the global stage. So is fostering its relationship with Pakistan under the umbrella of defence, military, diplomacy and global terrorism. Pakistan fits Moscow’s strategic calculus, but where Russia stands in Pakistan’s strategic aims remains unclear.
A marriage of convenience limits options
Again, it is strategic and defence cooperation which remains at the core of the recent convergence of Pakistani and Russian interests. Islamabad’s resentment with Washington’s mantra to “do more” to fight terrorist groups in the country and its shortsighted Afghan policy are stimulating the marriage of convenience with Moscow. The reactionary approach has always been a delimiting factor in tapping the true potential of Pakistan-Russia relations.
State-to-state relations endure when there are common goals. Shared animosities, frictions and rivalries knit a bond which sustains as long as the contention sustains.
If Pakistan is to diversify its foreign policy and reduce its dependence on other great powers, it will let economics guide its bilateral relations. Russia has expressed the desire to sign a free-trade agreement with Pakistan, which will increase bilateral cooperation. Pakistan can provision Russia since European agriculture imports are banned in Russia. Energy is also of interest to Russian oil and gas companies.
Pakistan can also provide a convenient international route to Russian goods through China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. The major obstacle to the development of economic relations has been unsettled mutual financial obligations. To this end, an intergovernmental commission on trade, economic, scientific and technical cooperation between Russia and Pakistan can play a pivotal role.
Pakistan-Russia Defense dependencies are meaningless for India to pay any attention to.
India is a lot bigger, stronger and stable than Pakistan but Russia is struggling to keep together what is left of Russia,
very apt analysis.
Does the geographical size matter much,when it has a potent nuclear neighbour?At state level India weighs all those premises.
This strategic friendship of Russia and Pakistan is to check the Indian hagemony in South Asia, in view of current geo political scenario and to balance the same.
Democracies progress slowly but surely. Look at economic size of India. Pakistan pales in comparison.
Pakistan’s strength lies behind the size of Chinese apron.
China is no friend of Pakistan. Chinese apron won’t cover provide protection to Pakistan.
Pakistan must wake up to that fact.
Chinese are shrewed businessmen. For China, India offers better business opportunities than jihad infested Pakistan.
Jihad won’t get you any where, Pakistan!
Wake up!
US weapons are based on technology which no other country can come close to.
India is making a strategic mistake by allienating Russia relations and cozying up to Pakistan. Pakistan like Israel has traditionally been allied with the US and Britain and will retract to it’s original policies when in a bind.
Pakistan has played a devestatingly negative role vis-a-vis Afghanistan and even has aided in killing of many Russian soldiers during the Afghan Soviet 10 year long war. Pakistan provides the terrorist groups like the Taliban and ISIS safe heaven and training with Arab money.
Wait, its Putin! one who do not know Putin, should never try to know Putin. Its not Russia, Pakistan friendship. It’s Putin Pakistan friend ship precisely. Now this means what Afghanistan & Chechnya taught Russia & Putin, may be Russia like all other in depth studies in any related matter, wants to know how one time enemy can be eliminated without a bullet being fired. Or not using nuclear revenge?.
The percieved interests and policies of India and Russia are on a divergent path. The western NGO’s in India, currently over 62,000, have worked hard and spent millions over the last decade to get to this point. It is just a matter of time when things would get worse between the two. Russia wants to see a stable Afghanistan and Pakistan for CPEC to be a success because of its own interests – which is in direct conflict to what India is trying to do.
Agreed.
It was never Indo-Pakistan War of 1971. Bangladesh declared independence from Pakistan in 1971, and hence Pakistan started the war, by killing, raping millions of Bangladeshis. And, dear writer, do you know why Bangladesh declared Independence? Because Pakistani Authrity denied rights of Bangladesh. That is why.
You ve very rightly pointed out the key cause of Pak-Russia cooperation in the historical context. Its the time to broaden horizon of bilateral ties. Candid and balanced analysis.
Controversy death figures in Bangladesh’s liberation war.
�https://www.theguardian.com…
http://m.timesofindia.com/w…
Pakistan estimates vary from 25-50 thousand dead which was also the figure Indian commanders at the time used ,while the figure of 58,000 is said to be the case by Uppsala University and the Peace Research Institute, Oslo.�Dr mumin chowdhrys a Bengali writer on the subject also gives the same figure in his book.�Sharmilla Bose also wrote a book on the subject but was hounded non stop by her critics.�Other institutions and academics put the total at 100-300 thousand.
But in those figures are also the west Pakistani migrants and Urdu speakers killed by the Bengali fighters.
Even if we meet somewhere between half way ,there was about 150’000 dead which is not a small number and must be condemned.
The problem with "millions dead" is that when it’s put under scrutiny it starts to fall apart.
Serajur Rahman
Retired deputy head, BBC Bengali Service
On 8 January 1972 I was the first Bangladeshi to meet independence leader Sheikh Mujibur Rahman after his release from Pakistan. He was brought from Heathrow to Claridge’s by the Indian high commissioner Apa Bhai Panth, and I arrived there almost immediately.
Mujib was puzzled to be addressed as "your excellency" by Mr Panth. He was surprised, almost shocked, when I explained to him that Bangladesh had been liberated and he was elected president in his absence. Apparently he arrived in London under the impression that East Pakistanis had been granted the full regional autonomy for which he had been campaigning. During the day I and others gave him the full picture of the war. I explained that no accurate figure of the casualties was available but our estimate, based on information from various sources, was that up to "three lakh" (300,000) died in the conflict.
To my surprise and horror he told David Frost later that "three millions of my people" were killed by the Pakistanis. Whether he mistranslated "lakh" as "million" or his confused state of mind was responsible I don’t know, but many Bangladeshis still believe a figure of three million is unrealistic and incredible.
Well written. Future of Pakistan-Russia relations depends upon what she said, "Pakistan’s art of diversifying its bilateral relations and Russia’s adroitness in balancing between India and Pakistan."