American officials and commentators often say it will be “suicide” if Kim Jong Un tries something. That something is usually unclear but at the rate Kim is launching missiles he appears to think he’s got plenty of leeway before he does something suicidal.
The North Koreans wouldn’t be the first to miscalculate what suicidal is.
It was suicidal for the Japanese to attack the Americans and British in 1941, in retrospect, at least. But at the time, it seemed like a reasonable idea.
It was suicidal for Hitler to attack Russia, especially when over half the German invasion force’s transport was horse-drawn. But at the time it didn’t seem so.
The United States invading Iraq without a plan for what to do once Baghdad was captured? It might not have been suicidal, but was at least the equivalent of jumping off a three-story building onto an asphalt parking lot, repeatedly.
So consider things from Kim’s perspective as he looks over the last 30 years. No matter what he and his father and grandfather have done they’ve never been painfully punished.
So consider things from Kim’s perspective as he looks over the last 30 years. No matter what he and his father and grandfather did they’ve never been painfully punished.
At various times, the Americans, Japanese, South Koreans and others have given the Kim’s food, money, oil, and atomic reactors – all in exchange for a promise to talk or behave better. Keeping the promises was optional.
And when the Kim regime has acted out – blowing up the South Korean cabinet in Rangoon, torpedoing a South Korean Navy ship, kidnapping Japanese citizens, launching missiles, building and testing nuclear weapons, poisoning a half-brother in broad daylight in a crowded airport terminal?
Why … nothing much happened.
After the South Korean vessel was sunk the Americans even pressured Seoul to do nothing. And China helpfully insisted at the UN that it was unclear who fired the torpedo.
China – the one country that can economically “turn off” North Korea – has kept the Kim’s afloat, protected them politically, and helped with their nuclear and missile programs.
This continues and includes pressuring South Korea over its THAAD missile defense system and strong-arming South Korean companies operating in China. But it’s not just Beijing.
The Kim regime maintains a gulag that a Korean Solzhenitsyn will someday write about. Yet 164 nations have diplomatic relations with North Korea.
The Kim regime maintains a gulag that a Korean Solzhenitsyn will someday write about. Yet 164 nations have diplomatic relations with North Korea.
And a number of them accept North Korean “forced” labor and allow the regime’s licit and illicit money making operations to continue.
The United States has had a curious approach towards North Korea. It maintains military forces on the peninsular and is committed to defending South Korea – while often displaying naivety and incompetence on the diplomatic front.
When the North’s nuclear program gathered speed in the early 1990’s, Jimmy Carter dropped by and declared Kim Il Sung a “good man who you can do business with.” (He added that an excellent harvest is coming – as “an old peanut farmer” knows, which was shortly before famine killed a million or two North Koreans.)
This writer was in the audience at the US Embassy in Tokyo in 1994 when Mr. Carter came back after reprising Neville Chamberlain’s role in Pyongyang. Jimmy Carter is still around, recently calling for talking things out with North Korea.
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright dropped by in 2000 and hobnobbed – double handshake and beaming smiles – with Kim Jong Il. To no avail.
And the State Department’s point man on North Korea, Christopher Hill, was repeatedly bamboozled by North Korean negotiators during the mid-2000’s. He also shut down US officials calling for a harsh approach to North Korea – just when financial sanctions were biting.
The jury is still out on the Trump Administration. But North Korea returns a soon-to-die American student, threatens Guam, and fires in-your-face missiles, including over Japanese territory. And it faces nothing more than angry Tweets and “this time we mean it…really we do” sanctions from the United Nations.
Looking at all this from Kim’s perspective, North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs have progressed nicely over the years despite whatever punishment and sanctions the United States and the United Nations threw at it.
Kim just might think that short of dropping a missile into Washington, DC, there’s not much the Americans will do. And perhaps some distance will eventually appear between South Korea and the United States.
At that point, attacking southwards and reunifying the peninsula may not seem suicidal to Kim – if it does even now.
Given this history, maybe the US can’t change Kim’s mind. But it might change China’s mind about what is suicidal and what isn’t for the Kim family regime. And they can pass the message along to their ally in Pyongyang.
What to tell Beijing? In short, once Americans (or their allies) start dying because of North Korea, it will not be business as usual between the United States and China.
China has a choice now, rein in North Korea or face a complete severing of US economic and financial ties once the shooting starts. (Suspending the Bank of China from the global US dollar system for six months will give a nice sense of things.)
And the Chinese Communist Party elite’s properties and bank accounts in the US will be frozen, and family members’ green cards revoked.
The communist party’s main claim to rule over 1.3 billion Chinese is the economic progress made once it stopped brutalizing its citizens. Interrupt the economy and the party is in trouble.
Continuing to protect the Kim regime may not be suicidal for China’s ruling class, but the Americans can make it the equivalent of jumping off a six-story building – without cushions in the parking lot.
Then, China might finally get serious about North Korea.
With nuclear weapons, suicide and genocide are the only choices. Don’t blame us if Kim chooses suicide.
Yup. Amazing how the writer gets all upset about Kim, then advocates a solution just just gives him what he wants.
Max Tolkoff Well, that’s what much of the American left and the environmentalist believe. 🙂
This is the propaganda machine of the evil west and it’s allied
I am really interested in hearing your logic as to why you think SK , arming herself with nukes is a pipe dream?
Why did the US accept all that ill-gained money from the princlings in the first place? Is it because the PRC could crash the dollar – and thereby the US’ global reputation by dumping just a tiny fraction of the US debt it holds to make the US oblige and restore the dollar if not the US’ reputation?
Yes. Why do it yourself when China can do it for you. Petty American and their petty thoughts.. Not impressed at all..
Keith Crosby For Mr. Kim it is a matter of survival. Keep in mind he is probably indoctrinated as the rest of the North Koreans and read history books about the horrors of the Korean war.
Thanks to the North Koreans regime priorities and international sanctions the North Koreans has been starving. The elite has a good life. They are driving Mercedes Benz S-class limousines and drink not only Champaign, but all types of alcohol for $ Millions a year. Mr. Kim has his own yacht, private island, many houses, one house even has his own golf course.
Anyway, the US should make a psychological profiling of the decisions makers in North Korea. If they do so they will find they have a different mind-set and is not afraid of a war. The latest hydrogen bomb test has provoked the world. China and Russia is deeply concerned provocations from either side could trigger a war. Let us hope last minute diplomacy can save the situation, if not it seems the US is ready to make South Korea their new battleground. Millions will lose their lives if there is a war. We might see a major economic market reaction in all financial markets, including the US.
Nonsense, and no need to trace back million years in histories, I can make conclusion on your ambition is to wash out North Korea. Two senarioes for you.
1. Even North Korea alone and your sides are what is called alliance, North Korea is ready to host and greet you at all time in WW III in terms of you all act foolish thinking.
2. You all and UN must consider the UN nuclear treat and amend to fair ly for all countries around the globe must destroy it own nuke. USA must start to destroy it’s nuke first. ( Your alliance have right to produce nuclear and weapons not only for defend your own territory but also sell out?)
USA should leave korean peninsula, Japan and allow NK and SK to reunite. They should concentrate on rebuilding, compensating, and apologizing countries they destroyed around the world. Rather than trying to do what is going to be genocidal.
When will people realise America is the issue? At this stage its a case of name the countries you havent been at war with over the past few centuries. Kim Jong un is a lunatic but he is right to test and keep his weapons. Look at what happened to Gaddiffi when he wanted to the leave the petrodollar for the dinar. The US army and imperialism is the issue here. Your country hasnt fought for freedom since world war 2. It fights for the petrodollar and the Rothschilds. Wake up
How Chinese proud, they are nothing just copying the technogy, innovation is far from Chinese chunks
Mark John to understand this, you need to do your own research on history (last 400 years). Your research would take a long time, many years if not a decade. At last you will understand why Zionists are the prime suspects most of the time.
Zee Grinder left wing nut?
People tell me!! Please I need an answer, why it is only some countries allowed to have nukes but not N K, live north to be nuclear power jst like others. USA, Islael and Russia should get id of their nukes. If not they should let NK to to have nukes like others. Fairness should prevail.
Excellent article!????????????
crazy times.
Who has more to lose, USA with it’s allies or North Korea most whom have never set foot outside their place of birth? Iran isn’t sleeping…so I wonder how many nuclear wars USA is willing to undertake in the very near future. No system is 100% efficient, not even security. Drugs are smuggled and so can nuclear explosive devices. If America is reckless with it’s military might, then the next world war will soon be upon us sooner than we can blink! Never underestimate a nation or a man’s inability to imagine it’s/his own destruction.
Warren Dew You are so right
Ottis Sheta-Sibanda Washington would never allow it otherwise US would lose leverage against Seoul. Instead it will offer to put American nuclear capabilities on SK and wipe out what little,mostly decorative,sovereignty SK has left.
Ken Nguyen ! Actually it was India who was initially offered the UNO-SC membership. But Nehru the-then Premier of India refused it in favor of China. Now India’s remorse for the decision is only imaginable.
Interesting… what do you think will be the Economic repercussions if China choses to respond differently…have u consider their other likely options with regards to how tgey respond?
Kim isn’t mad.it’s totally logical to acquire nuclear capability when faced by an enemy ie the united states that 1.is theonly country ever to use an atomic bomb (x2 and against asians),2.brought death and destruction to korea in 1950 when it interfered in what was a civil war 3.makes no secret of its desire to see the end of the dprk.