In February, China’s embassy in Tokyo issued a unique safety warning to millions of mainland tourists flocking to Japan: mind the radiation.
Japan didn’t take kindly to the advisory. Its preferred narrative three years ahead of the Tokyo 2020 Olympics is that all’s grand at the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant. It’s under control. Nothing to see here.
Chinese diplomats in February were responding to an admission by Tokyo Electric Power Co. that radiation levels at the Fukushima atomic facility northeast of Tokyo were higher than previously thought.
Yet China may have its own radiation worries with which to contend, ones partly of its own making across its border with North Korea.
As the global media obsesses over Kim Jong-un’s latest missile shot over Japan, the real story may be intelligence amassed by North Korea experts like those at 38 North.
Commercial satellite imagery, the respected Johns Hopkins University advisory reports, show increased numbers of massive landslides near the slopes of Mt. Mantap, near Pyongyang’s nuclear test area.
Kim’s regime is essentially engineering giant earthquakes. It was a March 2011 quake, remember, that precipitated the Fukushima atomic plant meltdown, the worst nuclear crisis since Chernobyl.
Ominously, South Korea is detecting traces of land-based radioactive xenon-133 gas from North Korea.
Ominously, South Korea is detecting traces of land-based radioactive xenon-133 gas from North Korea.
“It was difficult to find out how powerful the nuclear test was with the amount of xenon detected, but we can say the xenon was from North Korea,” said Choi Jongbae, executive commissioner of the South Korean Nuclear Safety Agency.
These radioactive isotopes don’t occur naturally and they’ve been linked to North Korean nuclear tests in the past.
In this context, 38 North’s assessment of Pyongyang’s September 3 nuclear test, its sixth, is decidedly chilling.
“The yield of the test clearly shows North Korean progress in increasing the yields of their nuclear weapons,” write Frank V. Pabian, Joseph S. Bermudez Jr. and Jack Liu.
Not to forget, the risk of accidents and mistakes rise with the frequency of nuclear tests and the destructiveness of each new weapon. It makes you wonder about what kinds of radiation traces Chinese officials are measuring.
The odds of President Xi Jinping’s opaque government coming clean on this score are virtually nil. Yet it may be the underappreciated catalyst that drives Beijing to get serious about taming Kim’s provocations.
If China is worried about Fukushima, imagine having to sort out radiation leaks in neighboring North Korea – a crisis the global community wouldn’t know about until it’s too late.
If China is worried about Fukushima, imagine having to sort out radiation leaks in neighboring North Korea – a crisis the global community wouldn’t know about until it’s too late.
That would have the world laying some blame at Beijing’s feet, given that its financial support enables Pyongyang and the porousness of the China-North Korea border.
As Paik Hak-soon of the Sejong Institute warns, the “possibility of a radiation leak there is growing.” The odds, Paik says, are rising because the “risk of collapse within the Punggye-ri nuclear test site is growing.”
The political rhetoric is frightening enough, with President Donald Trump threatening “fire and fury” and Kim’s regime saying US-ally Japan should be “sunken into the sea by the nuclear bomb of Juche,” referring to North Korea’s self-reliance ideology.
The risks facing Kim’s main benefactors in Beijing, though, are worth considering. Even beyond radiation, say experts like Rand Corporation analyst Bruce Bennett, China worries Kim’s tests could cause mountains to collapse and volcanoes to erupt.
China has signed on to recent United Nations sanctions, but it’s been reluctant to tighten the economic screws.
The thing is, Xi can ignore Trump’s bromides from Washington and he can brush aside advice from Japan’s Shinzo Abe or South Korea’s Moon Jae-in side eyes all he wants. But Xi can’t ignore the growing radiation risks directly in China’s backyard.
Nor can a global economy relying more and more on a stable and growing China.
Radiation suddenly wafting China’s way would be an epic Black Swan that markets aren’t even remotely pricing in.
If ever there were a reason for Xi to rethink his laissez-faire approach toward North Korea, the risk of a Chernobyl-like disaster on his doorstep is it.
China has tried to talk common sense to North Korea for more than three decades. Maybe China should have been barking against the US instead? Anyway, this is not an easy situation for China. They are extremely unhappy with the North Korean nuclear program and the US threatens with sanctions against China if they do not respect the UN sanction deal.
China will respect the sanctions, but USA will scream foul play anyway. China should stop being so nice and gullible against the USA. For obvious economic reasons China want to be friends everyone, but the US want conflicts and is ready to fabricate reasons.
China must become energy independent from the US and the US allies. Use some of the $ one TRILLION in US treasury bonds and deposit in investments in “green-energy”. The US will freeze these funds if there will be a currency, commodity, and markets war. Important to increase the investments along the new silk road and reduce Chinese poverty further.
The US is ready to throw their South Korean allied under the bus and re-start the Korean war. So nuclear contamination is guaranteed if not the US listen to Russia and China to abstain from further provocations. The Saudis and Israelis is begging the US to take action against North Korea. They fear Iran can buy nukes from North Korea. With the new sanctions, North Korea might be forced to sell nukes.
One phone call from Xi to the fat boy in North Korea and this would stop——-the Chinese are allowing fat boy to play this dangerous game——–WHY??? no one knows BUT there is a reason that is for sure!!
and israel is also implicated:the middle east countries are not safe withthe nuclear test of israel conducted with the us!we have to accuse the usual suspects!of course
The goat (North Korea) thinks by rubbing it’s body against it’s enemy’s (America) wall, it would be dirtying and spoiling the wall.
The goat does not know it is spoiling or damaging it’s own skin
The author seems unable to differentiate between underground nuclear explosion , as in the case of North Korea test and open air explosion as in the case of Fukushima.
China must be very careful with this, north korea can turn berserck and attack even China, whats the difference of attacking japan and beijing or russia, it will for sure get a much more abomb in return from any country it attack. Its a suicide. Nobody is safe. China must do something, whether they like it or not.
A reunited Korea would be one awesome country !
Why is when they are talking about NK the Arabs always have to jump in and start their issue against Israel 🙁 that is not what is being discussed. And having said that the same happens vice versa
Roger Barmes first of all i am not an arab,you seem to do the mistake like all of you europeens(i assume you are one)!the probleme is nuke only and you know and you dont mind too,israel can blow iran because they want to be the most powerful in the area!you dont share this ,it"s not israel because it’s israel !why you dont apply the same rethoric against the most repressise segregationist terrorist state!you not the only one anywayand every one you name israel is presumably an anti semite!am i wrong?there is no vice versa:iran ,noko never attacked other countries:on the contrarythe only one that did it is the us and most of you do not mind!i talked about nuke and be sure i am and be against country if in case of having some nuke i am andwill be againstit
it’s clear you dont like any of the three of them:china pakistan n korea:it’s a simple and easy guess!
smart and beautifularse leekingto the us
There neighbours should take action Russia China not the usa
Well…If China has been trying to talk "common sense" to NK for decades, they, above all other nations should know how useless that has been, and what sort of regime they, together have created, for their own supposed interests. China and Russia have been responsible for aiding and abetting this Dynasty/Cult to the position it now is, threatening everyone. It’s past the time that China and Russia actually did something positive about Kim jong un, and his toys. If THEY want to enhance THEIR standing in the world, thereby lies the answer.