Most pundits agree that the least bad way to deal with North Korea’s nuclear saber rattling is a continued combination of tight containment and aggressive diplomacy. Fewer, however, have recognized that the least bad military option – the one implied by US President Donald Trump’s insistence that China take responsibility for its dangerous neighbor – is a Chinese invasion, or regime change forced through China’s threat to launch one.
This outcome, which would sharply shift East Asia’s strategic balance in China’s favor, is not as unlikely as most people think. In fact, its very plausibility is one reason why it needs to be taken seriously, including by Chinese military planners. In Trumpian terms, this is a “China First” option that could help “Make China Great Again.”
Any military intervention, Chinese or otherwise, would carry huge risks. But before dwelling on them, consider what a successful Chinese intervention would achieve. For starters, it would put North Korea right where the country’s post-Korean War history suggests it belongs: under a Chinese nuclear umbrella, benefiting from a credible security guarantee.
Mao Zedong used to say that his country and North Korea were “as close as lips and teeth” – a fitting description, given Chinese troops’ role in averting an American victory in the Korean War. But while Japan and South Korea have remained close allies of the United States during the six decades since then, hosting US bases and sheltering under US nuclear protection, China and North Korea have drifted ever further apart.
As a result, China has little control over its neighbor and purported ally, and probably scant knowledge of what is going on there. It could, it is true, tighten the existing siege on North Korea by cutting trade further and blocking energy supplies. But this might achieve little beyond pushing Kim Jong-un’s cloistered regime to look for support from its other neighbor, Russia.
If, as is commonly assumed, North Korea wants some sort of credible security guarantee in exchange for curtailing its nuclear program, the only country capable of providing it is China. No American promise would remain credible beyond the term of the president who gave it, if even that long.
So if China were to combine threats of invasion with a promise of security and nuclear protection, in exchange for cooperation and possible regime change, its chances of winning over large parts of the Korean People’s Army would be high. Whereas a nuclear exchange with the US would mean devastation, submission to China would promise survival, and presumably a degree of continued autonomy. For all except those closest to Kim, the choice would not be a difficult one.
China’s strategic gains from a successful military intervention would include not only control of what happens on the Korean Peninsula, where it presumably would be able to establish military bases, but also regional gratitude for having prevented a catastrophic war.
No other action holds as much potential to make Chinese leadership within Asia seem both credible, and desirable, especially if the alternative is a reckless, poorly planned US-led war. What China needs, above all, is legitimacy, and intervention in North Korea would provide it. Successful use of hard power would bring China, to borrow the distinction coined by Harvard’s Joseph S Nye, huge reserves of soft power.
But now to the 64 billion renminbi question: Could it work? We can’t know the answer for sure, and any military intervention carries great risks. The Chinese armed forces are now well equipped, but lack comparable battlefield experience. Their inferior opponents have leaders who might be prepared to use nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction, if they did not simply accept Chinese terms and surrender.
What we can say with near certainty is that a Chinese land and sea invasion, rather than an American one, would stand a better chance of avoiding Kim’s likely response: an artillery attack on the South Korean capital, Seoul, which lies just a few dozen miles south of the demilitarized zone. Why would North Korea slaughter its southern brothers and sisters in retaliation for a Chinese invasion that came with a promise of continued security, if not autonomy?
Moreover, while the Kim regime’s nuclear restraint could hardly be taken for granted, China would be a less likely target than the US for North Korean missiles. Were a Chinese military option to be contemplated seriously, some intelligence and missile-defense collaboration with the US might be worth exploring. Given the risks, it would be hard for the US to refuse.
This scenario may well never happen. But it is so logical that the possibility of it should be taken seriously. It is, after all, China’s best opportunity to achieve greater strategic parity with the US in the region, while removing a source of instability that threatens them both.
Copyright Project Syndicate, 2017.
www.project-syndicate.org
While many years of western media and Hollywood films loved to portrait china as evil or for sure to a certain extent ( just somehow not legit ), china has not had war nor invaded one single country for 40 years . Chinese people in general do not constantly think of others as threat and thus through a self righteous ideology think it is " right to invade " others . Never mind to remind all here : when one invaded Iraq or Libya , it’s not as if it’s " Iraq " or " Libya ", it millions of innocent lives to be killed and whom those children or mother or brother or father have nothing to do with it . China is not ready in many foreseeable years to invaded any country .
A bunch of nonsense. Nobody knows how the DPRK would react in the event of a full-scale war- can you guarantee that NK won’t lash out at Seoul or Japan? This Emmott guy doesn’t seem to have any background on Korea or military issues. The best bad option is to allow China to entice NK leadership into making economic reforms, and this would require dropping much of the sanctions. And sanctions never work in these cases anyway.
Its like ur sweet talking China to fight us ‘s war.
Do China has any misunderstanding with North Korea’?
Why do Americans think there enemy must be other’s enemy?
Diplomacy requires both sides to actually want it and leaders that actually have a brain in their heads.
You are an idiot. Show me where in all of history since the Roman times that diplomacy has avoided imminent conflict.
Just for clarity, I am NOT pro anyone having weapons of mass destruction. At the end of the day one can not help but wondering how and why a bunch of countries that collectively own thousands of these weapons(nuclear or otherwise) demand from others not to develop some of these weapons themselves. There only been one country in the world that ever used such weapons and that is the USA who’s been involved in some form of war for almost their entire existence however they never ever attacked a country that had nucle Capabilities. So I am of the opinion that owning nuclear firepower is more defensive than it is offensive. Of course everyone is entitled to their opinion regardless if I agree with yours or not , I will respect it.
Mr. Raymond as you have rightly said that Kim Jong Un and his inner circle are only concerned about the continuation of Kim dynasty, I don’t think that Kim Jong Un will back down at any cost whatsoever after what happened to Saddam Hussien and colonel Muhamad Gaddafi. It is my belief that US should withdraw it’s forces from Japan and South Korea if there has to be normalisation of volatile situation in the Korean peninsula.The war in the Korean peninsula may lead to the global conflict which all of us know will be the begining of the destruction of the whole world.
the best option offered so far in resolving the north korean crises…the devil is in the details however…on how to implement that option….
You are bonkers. N Korea has nuclear weapons it can smuggle into Beijing. It may already even have one there right now.
The problem with Kim jong un and his inner cohort is, what will he do if he considers his Dynasty to be under threat from all sides, because the Kim Dynasty is all that matters to him, will he bow to the wishes of others? Even those he counted as friends? Will he peacefully acquiesce to such a protection proposal from China, even with the promise of severe Chinese military protection from the perceived threat of the United States? Will he give up his own ICBM/nuclear ambitions for the purpose/excuse of contributing to that end anyway? If not and he decides to make a stand, come Hell or high water. If I’m going, I’m going to take as many enemies and traitorous neighbors as possible with me because, without the power, position and worship I’ve created for myself within NK, and that I now have, is unconsionable. It’s said he is not suicidal, no, probably not, but vengeful beyond reason?? How do we try to prevent that scenario?
Peaceful solution to the problem is a must because a War will destroy everything.
Even drastic sanctions will create some more problems like not enough essentiall basic items for North Korean citizens to survive like food, clothing, drinking water etc.. if someone build a wall around our house not allowing us to bring food, water, and medicine then we will inevitably break that wall just to survive. what we need understand is that sanctions is like building a wall around the country and I don’t think any country will like it.
Nuclear weapons testing is not good for the Environment. We must not forget that every country that have Nuclear weapons, tested it’s own weapons sometimes. Whether the testing is done underground or overground it is not safe.
The only solution to the problem is peaceful negotiation not War
The most stupidest, irrational, illogical article of the 21st. century. This writer must be on some cheap drugs!!
Both China and Russia are being affected, along with South Korea, Japan and SE Asia, by Kim jong un’s underground testing of nuclear warheads. China is very concerned about the possible collapse of the caverns created by those tests and the imminent release of tons of contaminated material from those sites. They are also very worried about the seismic effects of those tests on the fragile earthquake/volcanic faults in the earth’s crust, of which there are plenty in the region. South Korea reports detecting nuclear particles in air samples that only come from such tests i.e. leaking is already occuring. If encouraging Kim jong un to desist from his testing in the name of peace, with the avoidance of war, is NOT successful, what do you suggest China SHOULD do in it’s own interests?
"Diplomacy based on trust is the only way forward". What exactly is the form of diplomacy you propose? What and how do you suggest to build trust? If, for instance you mean the surrendering of South Korea to be a subject of the North for the reunification of Korea, as well as the removal of US forces from Japan, you must know, by any stretch of the imagination, that is a foolish notion. It just isn’t going to happen. Certainly not while the Kim Dynasty remains. If your diplomatic solution is not that scenario, please inform us of what you propose. Your statement indicates that you have a course of diplomatic action to solve the crisis peacefully, so that all possible combatants, can walk away from the brink intact and secure. The world awaits your peaceful solution that doesn’t require those unlikely criteria. Please.
This so called military strategists think that military superpower like China is Stupid and a great country like China will invade another country just because, outsiders wanted it. It is just wishful thinking.
China and it’s leaders will only respond if they are effected not because some outside military strategists wanted it to destroy North Korea
It is not nice to put two friendly nation’s on a path of conflict and watch it thinking that they will invade and destroy each other. It is pathetic.
The strategy should be to encourage Peace, without War
Most stupid article ever rea. One suggestion for the author Bill Emmott: please don’t write article when you’re drunk. Don’t waste your & our time….please
Wish full thinking at best,dont take Chinese to be that stupid and your selves to be that clever.DT has become a laughing stock of the world,if he dosnt find a way out through negotiated setellment,USin general and the world over all, is in deep trouble. Diplomacy based on trust is the only way forward.
China with there actions are supporting North Korea. Allow North Korea to coninue with there Nuclear tests. The tests can trigger a valcona that will destroy North Korea and a big part of China. Karma for them.
The same group of so called strategic thinkers will decried China’s action as they suggested as a threat to US interest and the world and call for UN action against China. A most ridiculous article.
Self-serving wishful thinking.