The Xinhua news agency and China Daily newspaper, two authoritative platforms of Chinese policies, held out warnings this week over the military standoff with India near the Sikkim border.
China Daily starkly wrote that the “window for a peaceful solution is closing. The countdown to a clash between the two forces has begun….” Xinhua said China’s “restraint has limits and with every day that passes the tether shortens.”
Should these warning be taken seriously? India stubbornly ignored similar warnings 55 years ago in a border war it resoundingly lost and the rest is history.
A war between India and China is improbable since neither side wants it. But below that threshold is a vast space where miscalculations can occur. Indians and Chinese are patriotic people, driven by nationalistic leaderships, and “territorial sovereignty” is a highly emotive issue. What’s alarming is that both governments have successfully rallied domestic opinion.
In China, perhaps, this wasn’t particularly difficult. But in India where a hundred flowers normally bloom, opinion is polarizing at an exceptional rate. It seems all Indians are rising in anger over Facebook posts supporting China’s position. But how could there be a contrarian opinion?
This holds dangers because hubris is a self-devouring monster. The plain truth is that India’s post-Cold War foreign policy calculus will be severely put to test for the first time if a conflict with China ensues. No country has backed India in its seven-week standoff with China. Indians all along fancied that they were leagues ahead of Chinese in “soft power” – yoga, Gandhi, snake charmers, etc. Apparently, that is not so.
It is particularly galling that the United States has not taken any posture favoring India. India’s post-Cold War strategic discourse is heavily laden with the blithe assumption that the US regards India as a “counterweight” to China. Meghnad Desai, a high-flying opinion maker in the English-speaking Delhi circuit, said last week:
“All things that follow now will have a lot to do with what happens in the South China Sea. The US has sent out enough signals. If there is war, it will be a US-China war, with India on the US side, in the South China Sea and in the Himalayas. This trio (India, China and the US) is a very combustible mixture right now.… Ultimately, you have to understand that India cannot stand up to China without American help and support. America cannot stand up to China without Indian help. That is the symmetry in this relationship.”
The sheer naiveté in the above passage sums up India’s misfortune. The Indians refuse to see the geopolitical realities. It doesn’t occur to them that US President Donald Trump will fight wars only if America’s interests are directly threatened. Why should he order the Pentagon to send the marines to the Himalayas or to dispatch a carrier battle group to hunt down Chinese submarines in the Indian Ocean?
The one thing emerging out of the meeting in Manila last Friday between US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is that the two top diplomats did not waste time on the South China Sea or the Indian Ocean.
Tillerson told the media that North Korea was the main topic in his discussions and whatever extra “bit of reflection on the relationship” with China that took place was devoted to the four high-level dialogues between the two countries last April at the summit at Mar-a-Lago, Florida. That meeting, he said, is “really advancing our two countries’ understandings of the nature of this relationship … and how we should strive to strengthen this relationship so that it benefits the world in terms of maintaining a secure world absent of conflict.”
Interestingly, the White House released a press release on Saturday thanking China for its cooperation in securing the passage of a resolution in the United Nations Security Council on increased sanctions against North Korea. Trump is expected to make a state visit to China in November and Wang disclosed that preparations have begun.
Indian analysts simply do not get the point that the US-China relationship is in an altogether different league. Simply put, the single most crucial template of India’s strategy against China turns out to be delusional – that the US will confront China on India’s behalf.
Equally, Indian strategists never expected that post-Soviet Russia would bounce back on to the world stage. Through the past quarter-century, successive Indian governments have pursued a policy of benign neglect of relations with Russia, which are today in a state of atrophy. On the other hand, Russia-China relations are today at their highest point in decades.
Sadly, India’s “soft power” took a lethal blow during the past three-year period of the Hindu-nationalist government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This is so not only in liberal Western opinion but also in the Muslim world. The violence against Muslims, the erosion in India’s secularist foundations, the mass upheaval in Kashmir have all received attention internationally. It is also useful to remember that the Organization of Islamic Cooperation represents 54 member countries of the United Nations.
Suffice to say, all these factors will come into play if a war ensues between India and China. India is not a match for China militarily, and in soft power too China may already have an advantage. By cocooning themselves in a fantasyland, Indians are too full of themselves in their refusal to be judged by international opinion – leave alone Chinese and its smaller South Asian neighbors’ opinions.
some duffer think they are very smart .. there are other countery also ready to invade Pakistan ..india is capable to fight two front war ..Pakistan do not have butt to think of that in today looking after indian stong army ..Pakistan can only raise there leg high to be fk only
John Brown if you’re so confident about winning then what you waiting for? Let the war began no one is stopping you. Remember Dogs can only bark same goes for you. Dreaming for win war just by threatening, Every single day brand new threat. And remember if was is declared there will be 1.2b free people against 1.3b slave Chinese.
Some Indians are so cheap like this ^ambassador^..?lol
India is known internationall for its self righteousness and intransigence in settling the border question with China. The border dispute can only be settled on the baisis of International law and negotiation beween countries involved in the dispute. India has always said that its borders are historically derived and not subject to negotiations with anyone! However, talks are OK. These have been going on apparently endlessly. China must be admired for her patience; she has settled her border disputes will all other countries including with Russia which was also intransigent. Then came Gorbachov who took a visionary standpoint and settled the dispute with China. When Modi came to power, it was expected that he would show some vision. That was not to be. His militaristic NSA and Modi were said to be born for each other as told to me by a top intelligence official to me! Settling the border question with China on the basis of negotiations is the key to settling or reducing conflicts in South Asia. India committed a colossal blunder by not going to the OBOR meet in China earlier this year, There could not havve been a better opportunity to begin resolving the differences between India, China and Pakistan by cooperative development efforts. The sole Indian who attended OBOR meet has reported that Xi Jinping’s vision in his speech at the meet was extraordinary and that no Indian leader has evr shown such high calibre visiion. President Trump cannot be accused of such vision and we are foolishly allied with him. The eminent Lord Desai does not want to see it. He should learn something from Bhadrakumar’s views expressed here. Bravo, Bhadra!
So, according to your logic, If China wants to be a real great power it should start helping out Kashmiri who are suffering under the jackboot of India ? or maybe help out Nagaland and Gurkhaland and other minorities of India who are sick of its rulers and are desperately trying to get off the clutches of India? You Indian have a very disturbing mindset and will lead to a lot of self-harm without the inpput of others.
So making racist insults instead of objective arguments is your contribution? And your diatribe is the very definition of "barking" is it not?
They still don’t get it in spite of their access to many sources of information. They only seek confirmation bias. It is indicative that an objective article can stir such jingoistic sentiments.
India would need a moment of madness, like the Cultural Revolution, to show the pain and futility of such excesses before they would come to their senses.
sure, but what if, just what if the nuke missile that India fire is interecept by anti-baliistic missle defense in China? Is India prepare to receive retaliation? note that India currently does not have anti-ballistic missile defense, not only India is vulnerable to retaliation, the world will also condem India for firing the first nuke.
If India cannot win the conventional war, some country might stil side with India as a country being bullied, but if India fire the first nuclear shot, no one will come to India side when China retaliate with nuke also.
It seems to be a quite logical argument.
Spot on.
Deepa Sharma , India is in the 7th place as a large trading partner. India buys from China because it’s providing good value for money and will not have an impact on overall Chinese economy.
India can stop buying from China, but will have to fork out a lot more money to buy from a developed country especially in area of heavy engineering and advance technological products.
Marines in the Himalayas? Did you have opium?? In fact, India has suffered immensely because of these week spined diplomats such as Mr Bhadrakumar who have never been able to convey India’s point of view.In fact, one case clearly, he does not have a perspective of that sort. In fact, he is actually propagating western narrative where the mention of India as country of snake charmers. As a matter of fact, even those narratives have changed over the years but Mr Bhadrakumar stands a loyal fossil of that era. Enjoy your wine Mr Bhadrakumar.
John Brown India DID NOT invade another country. India is PROTECTING being it’s friendly neighbor being invaded… BIG DIFFERENCE…
John Brown Either you’re a Chinese shill or you were living under a rock… Where were you when the Chinese were encroaching on other nations on the South China Sea? At least, India WON’T let a bully bully it’s friendly nation, in this case, Bhutan.
John Brown neither are International Geo-politics so simple as you are putting out, nor is the dispute at hand so simple as you are thinking. History is full of such instances. Why to go to another region at all. These differences over construction of roads and forward outposts are the things that led to the conflicts in 1962. They were what led to the conflict in 1967. So what you are saying is meaningless. Why is the Mexico so much hostile towards building of a Compound wall in the US-Mexico Border. What did the NATO and its allies lose when the Berlin Wall was built. Why did the Chinese come to NK’s rescue in Korean War, when the aggressor was NK and UN forces merely came to the rescue of SK and of course came very near to occupy whole of NK. Because they came dangerously close to Chinese territory. Geo-politics not so simple and cut and right as you are putting it out to be.
Rejenal Pang keep your tounge under control. And rather it is not me but your whole country and also seemingly the whole of the war-mongering media in your country which is unable to understand the difference. If you are asking with the difference between the two, I too agree that there can be no war. But if you people come with a Conflict then neither people here are willing to back out and surrender ourselves. So go to hell. I dont care about such crap comments, who don’t understand the etiquette of a discussion. Maybe that’s the culture you people have got after the Cultural Revolution. Lol
CIA trolls posing as Indians are here again making stupid war, nuke comments.
Mr Bhadrakumar is an honest author and his articles are insightful, analytical and accurate.
China will handle this little issue properly as always and another CIA plot will bite the dust.
John Brown . The chinese have invaded bhutanese house. Thus is because Bhutan has had 24 failed border meetings with china. India has security teraty with bhutan to protect it. Hence india is saving bhutanese house from chinese invaders. This is inportant for indias own security also. China is not in its own house. China has always invaded others houses. India never had Han chinese at its borders before the chinese invasion of tibet.
ASIA TIMES .This bhadrakumar is writing misleading accounts. Instead of commenting on india china relationship he is more interested in denigrating the current indian govt. He is actually trying to interfere in internal politics of india rather than discuss international relations. He is factually wrong at times. There are better commentators available in india.
John Brown Being a big country in the subcontinent has been a problem especially for a democratic country with such huge diversity that our neighbours policies directly affect our local population. We have the Nepalis and the GOrkhas living in UP BIhar and West Bengal, the Bangladeshis SIndhis and Punjabis and a huge Tamil population. 1987 Rajiv Gandhi murder by the LTTE and the support of India towards the Sri Lankan civil war are some of the examples.
Similarly the 2015 blockade of the Madhesis (people from UP and BIhar settle in Nepal) were for political representation of Madhesis in the constitution of Nepal and redivision of federal states like the issue of Tamils in Sri Lanka.
Issue with Bangladesh is the demographic changes in Assam and West Bengal due to migration over the past 60 years.
However currently India has good relations with all except Pakistan baserd on their "official government statements". CHina may have deep pockets but for the past 60 years India has done a lot for the neighbourhood though at a snail’s place being a poor democracy. Economic viability of BHutan and NEpal is interlinked with India not just because of free flow of economy but also people who freely take up jobs in India even government service.
Even if you analyse your own arguement of being a bully analyse what will India gain by pushing its neighbours towards China. What will India gain from bullying? Poverty here is rampant and people in the subcontinent survive to make ends meet. IF CHina has such a big heart as people conclude why doesnot if addresses India’s security concerns by not building a road?? A road that too in a disputed region.
IF CHina has such a good heart why does is vetos UN Scurity Council Resolution against terorist who was freed after IC 810 airline was hijacked for him (Masood Azhar).
CHina feels India supports terrorist like His holiness Noble Laureate Dalai Lama. All this is a spectacle for the world to see. India may loose to China on open war but CHina will take nothing but enmity from 17% humanity and more than 800 million people to be below 40 years old by 2050 who will be invading the world from all sides as workers, managers officers a key source of workforce in the next century.