The Xinhua news agency and China Daily newspaper, two authoritative platforms of Chinese policies, held out warnings this week over the military standoff with India near the Sikkim border.
China Daily starkly wrote that the “window for a peaceful solution is closing. The countdown to a clash between the two forces has begun….” Xinhua said China’s “restraint has limits and with every day that passes the tether shortens.”
Should these warning be taken seriously? India stubbornly ignored similar warnings 55 years ago in a border war it resoundingly lost and the rest is history.
A war between India and China is improbable since neither side wants it. But below that threshold is a vast space where miscalculations can occur. Indians and Chinese are patriotic people, driven by nationalistic leaderships, and “territorial sovereignty” is a highly emotive issue. What’s alarming is that both governments have successfully rallied domestic opinion.
In China, perhaps, this wasn’t particularly difficult. But in India where a hundred flowers normally bloom, opinion is polarizing at an exceptional rate. It seems all Indians are rising in anger over Facebook posts supporting China’s position. But how could there be a contrarian opinion?
This holds dangers because hubris is a self-devouring monster. The plain truth is that India’s post-Cold War foreign policy calculus will be severely put to test for the first time if a conflict with China ensues. No country has backed India in its seven-week standoff with China. Indians all along fancied that they were leagues ahead of Chinese in “soft power” – yoga, Gandhi, snake charmers, etc. Apparently, that is not so.
It is particularly galling that the United States has not taken any posture favoring India. India’s post-Cold War strategic discourse is heavily laden with the blithe assumption that the US regards India as a “counterweight” to China. Meghnad Desai, a high-flying opinion maker in the English-speaking Delhi circuit, said last week:
“All things that follow now will have a lot to do with what happens in the South China Sea. The US has sent out enough signals. If there is war, it will be a US-China war, with India on the US side, in the South China Sea and in the Himalayas. This trio (India, China and the US) is a very combustible mixture right now.… Ultimately, you have to understand that India cannot stand up to China without American help and support. America cannot stand up to China without Indian help. That is the symmetry in this relationship.”
The sheer naiveté in the above passage sums up India’s misfortune. The Indians refuse to see the geopolitical realities. It doesn’t occur to them that US President Donald Trump will fight wars only if America’s interests are directly threatened. Why should he order the Pentagon to send the marines to the Himalayas or to dispatch a carrier battle group to hunt down Chinese submarines in the Indian Ocean?
The one thing emerging out of the meeting in Manila last Friday between US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is that the two top diplomats did not waste time on the South China Sea or the Indian Ocean.
Tillerson told the media that North Korea was the main topic in his discussions and whatever extra “bit of reflection on the relationship” with China that took place was devoted to the four high-level dialogues between the two countries last April at the summit at Mar-a-Lago, Florida. That meeting, he said, is “really advancing our two countries’ understandings of the nature of this relationship … and how we should strive to strengthen this relationship so that it benefits the world in terms of maintaining a secure world absent of conflict.”
Interestingly, the White House released a press release on Saturday thanking China for its cooperation in securing the passage of a resolution in the United Nations Security Council on increased sanctions against North Korea. Trump is expected to make a state visit to China in November and Wang disclosed that preparations have begun.
Indian analysts simply do not get the point that the US-China relationship is in an altogether different league. Simply put, the single most crucial template of India’s strategy against China turns out to be delusional – that the US will confront China on India’s behalf.
Equally, Indian strategists never expected that post-Soviet Russia would bounce back on to the world stage. Through the past quarter-century, successive Indian governments have pursued a policy of benign neglect of relations with Russia, which are today in a state of atrophy. On the other hand, Russia-China relations are today at their highest point in decades.
Sadly, India’s “soft power” took a lethal blow during the past three-year period of the Hindu-nationalist government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This is so not only in liberal Western opinion but also in the Muslim world. The violence against Muslims, the erosion in India’s secularist foundations, the mass upheaval in Kashmir have all received attention internationally. It is also useful to remember that the Organization of Islamic Cooperation represents 54 member countries of the United Nations.
Suffice to say, all these factors will come into play if a war ensues between India and China. India is not a match for China militarily, and in soft power too China may already have an advantage. By cocooning themselves in a fantasyland, Indians are too full of themselves in their refusal to be judged by international opinion – leave alone Chinese and its smaller South Asian neighbors’ opinions.
Deepa Sharma honestly U don’t know what is th hydrogen bombs
china sucess test in 1967 4000 kt
A career diplomat who wants to point finger for every lingering problem to Hindu Nationalism whether local, international, inter planetary, inter solar system, inter galactic.
Rejenal Pang : when india test nuke it was 65 kt now india is possess more then mini 300 kt nuke .india has thermal nuke too china did not poseess
What kind of career diplomat is he? He misses the entire issue of China bullying Bhutan and CHinese control over DOklan is a security threat. Blaming Modi and Hindu nationalism cannot be the reason behind everything specially policies of foreign governments. Modi has tried to please the Chinese too much by no granting visas to Dolkan Isa, supporting against Uighurs and sitting back silent on other Chinese incursions in Ladakh and Kalapani. I think the career diplomat wants India to let CHina construct the road.
On thing is sure India right now may have US tilt it is not banking on it. THough 70 billion dollar trade is only 2% for Chinese with India the potential to trade with 1.3 billion market is an orgasmic idea for Chinese goods therefore it would have been better if the author analysed these angles. If our career diplomats comment like this on our policy what can we expect from general public??
Rejenal Pang For India/china war or China/vietnam war china has to first come with a whitepaper what it is willing to lose ( shanghai,beijing,another 20 cities) then it has to ask India for proof whether it has capability to execute that…..it can be any form suitcase to ship only then china will go for war….India need not have to win war it has to increase capability such that it meets requirement of chinese defense whitepaper…..sameway is between north korea vis a vis USA/SouthKorea what is acceptable collateral they are willing to risk for war…..so there will be no war
however India/Vietnam will demand from china when are you balancing my trade ….nukes are meant to get leverage in trade actually that is why all countries having nukes are rich countries
The author is a diffident commie supporter of the past, most likely educated in JNU or St. Stephens, perhaps was a snail in his past life and hence wants to cower and go back to his shell on the first sign of trouble.
Rejenal Pang Dream on!
Rejenal Pang If THAT’S the impression the Chinese are getting about India’s nukes, I would say India is doing AN EXCELLENT job of hiding its capability… And believe me, if India can send an orbiter to Mars AT ONE ATTEMPT and a much much heavier rocket (GSLV) (which China attempted and spectacularly failed TWICE), then developing Nukes with much larger range and capability is child’s play. You’re talking about India here who developed its entire Nuke program indigenously UNLIKE Pakistan that stole it and trafficked it to rogue nations like North Korea and China who EVERY ‘Advanced’ technology is that reverse engineered from American tech stolen through spy activity.
So, if India is NOT giving away its Nuke capability, it’s time for China and it’s lapdog Pakistan to WORRY
And it will ALSO EXPOSE China’s ‘peaceful rise’ ruse… Who are you kidding?
2 million lives and all economy in ruins, for a barren piece of land, where you can’t even breathe easily…don’t make your normal cities unbreathable and radioactive.
Rejenal Pang a weak nuke at shanghai will cost 2 million +
China can intercep all india missile in tibet but India have no air defence equipment and bluffer area. besides that india nuclear weapon is way too weak.only 4 mdga ton test in the late 90 but china nuclear is 4000 mega ton in the 60
nepal is moving towards China and soon be bhutan
they will build a few dam and india ……
China can intercep all india missile in tibet but India have no air defence equipment and bluffer area. besides that india nuclear weapon is way too weak.only 4 mdga ton test in the late 90 but china nuclear is 4000 mega ton in the 60
yes true north korea is blackmailing USA and japan since long but no one able to stop them…. so nuke threat must be given ..
authur forget china has more front to fight ,,india has only two front war,,chines power is devided in 6 front as indian to two front,, accoriding to this logic india has upper hand.. no need to get any support from out side ..can win war its own… Indian air force and navy has edge on chines always .. so china cant take india lightly ..it will get big blow on his jaw will bleed herself
One of India neighbour constanly threat India about use of Nuclear Power. Than why can’t India use the same against China. Let China understand that cost of war will not be less for them also.
A fatalistic colonial article, nothing about the future consequence if China takes control of that strategic location. Sometimes you have to fight when you are a man (Kenny Rogers put it rightly in his famous song)
Though the article has valid points, the motive behind the article appears to be to support China, beat up India and the Modi government and create a wedge between India and the US. Just like assuming America will support us is naive, implying that America will do nothing reveals the hidden agenda behind the article. With articles like this around, no wonder that the Chinese are at an advantage.
Nuke Shanghai if we can’t win them..that is the leveler here.