Pakistan has been feeling its way, somewhat blindly, towards a strategy in response to pressure from the United States, whose president last week made allegations of “terrorist havens” in the country as he announced a new American game plan in Afghanistan that involves a greater role for India in the war-torn country.
The fact is that Islamabad needs a bulwark against India. This is why it will not abandon support for militant groups – including the Taliban – even under the harshest US sanctions. In the words of Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the US-based Wilson Center’s Asia Program, “Pakistan has an unshakeable strategic interest in maintaining ties to militant groups like the Taliban because they help keep Pakistan’s Indian enemy at bay in Afghanistan.”
Analysts predict that Washington’s policy of isolating Pakistan could push it closer to Russia, China, Turkey and Iran, and that this will only exacerbate matters, dooming to failure US efforts to help the Afghan government bring stability and peace to the region.
The Pakistani authorities have sprung into action to muster support and backing from regional powers. The country’s foreign minister is visiting China, Russia and Turkey this week, in pursuit of “regional consensus.” Both China and Russia have officially backed Pakistan in response to Washington’s allegations and lauded the country’s role in the war against terrorism.
“We would like to see effective and immediate US military efforts to eliminate sanctuaries of terrorists and miscreants on Afghan soil, including those responsible for fomenting terror in Pakistan”
Following Mr Trump’s suggestion of Pakistani culpability in the failures of American military adventures in Afghanistan, and its harboring of the “agents of chaos,” on August 21, Pakistan gave its first public response – following intense civil-military deliberations – three days later. The Prime Minister’s office said the Afghan war could not be fought in Pakistan, adding: “We would like to see effective and immediate US military efforts to eliminate sanctuaries of terrorists and miscreants on Afghan soil, including those responsible for fomenting terror in Pakistan.”
Simultaneously, Pakistan immediately delayed a planned visit to Washington by Foreign Minister Khwaja Asif. The US Ambassador to Pakistan, David Hale – who had earlier paid a courtesy call on Asif, on August 14 – conveyed to him the US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s desire for a meeting to discuss the state of bilateral relations and Washington’s new South Asia policy. The invitation was accepted, but no date has been set. Meanwhile, Pakistan also postponed a scheduled visit from Alice Wells, the US Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Despite media and public anger, Pakistan – in view of its precarious financial health – cannot risk annoying the US overly much. The US accounts for 16% of Pakistani exports, and the country’s current account deficit surged to US$12.12 billion in the fiscal year 2016/17, compared to US$4.86 billion in the preceding year.
While addressing the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce & Industry (FPCCI) last week, the Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Tariq Bajwa, termed the ballooning deficit the greatest challenge to the country’s economy, saying the bank was weighing up various measures – including currency depreciation – to improve its balance of payment position.
Pakistan will need foreign currency to service its bulging debts of over US$80 billion. Funds are running out and it may find itself running cap in hand to the IMF sooner rather than later before defaulting on debt-servicing liabilities.
This whole game of chess as caused Pakistan much pain and suffering. Someone will bail them out, however they’d want a pound of flesh for every billion!
I think that a shift of USA strategy does not mean that Pakistan is being abandoned. President Trump probably has new strategy that will required India to be more responsible for peace in the South Asia continent. This reqirrs unusual manpower.
Though India has less experience dealing with this type of intercountry matters, the new regional duty would help her to reshape herself toward a better Samaritan country. If China would takeover this role, India will get the pain and suffering!
Mohammad Ashraf Galahad typical terrorist mindset of equating religion with everything.
Mohammad Ashraf Let’s get two facts right here.
1) The Hindus who were slaughtered in Hindu Kush were not invaders who came to usurp the land of the Afghans. They were largely the native Hindu population who resisted conversion into Islam on the edge of a sword or helpless prisoners of war captured by invading Muslim marauders like Ghazis and Ghaznavis and such. Nothing to gloat about it either way. It shows on the religion and values of the people who committed the heinous genocide.
2) Indians are not stupid as you think them to be. India will never send any armed forces into any Muslim lands. The experience of Americans, NATO and even the Muslim armies in alien Muslim lands serves a good example to anyone who care to look and Indians do look before they leap.
India extends her influence the right way – soft power – we build schools, hospitals, universities, road and power grids. We teach and train Afghans to stand on their own legs and resist & break the chains of servitude that Pakistan has prepared for them. We win hearts and minds of ordinary Afghans, a fact today borne well by all kinds of reports emanating from Afghanistan including articles in Pakistani news media like Dawn & Express Tribune. Even if the Taliban came to power tomorrow, it’s only a matter of time before they develop a warm relationship with India and simultaneously start a war with Pakistan, for Pakistan occupies Afghan lands in Pashtunistan.
Therefore, get over your wet dreams of Hindus being slaughtered once again in Hindukush. Its not going to happen.
Mohammad Ashraf: Very confident view. I like to see proof and NOT "talk, talk, and talk and no action."
Very interesting data on India’s socio-economic issues. I do not dispute this proposal of "clean your house first before helping others." However, I think that India has tried to do just that since the unsung hero Ganghi’s time. This process has been proven not to work very well. Just take China as an example, China was not much different from current India when Deng Xiaoping took over. Deng then opened China to the world and let Chinese venture outside China: Now China is very rich country with much much less socio-economic issues like today’s India.
Many times in world history, wars have been known as the agents of changes for the better! No pain, no gain.
Daniel Maraamu if it was not for India, Bhutan � would have been invaded and occupied by the racist Han colonialists as happened to Tibet a long time ago
Prasad Gopinath by supending over a trillion dollors cannot win heart of Afghans, you , you by spending a billing expcting to win over. you stand is becasue of northern minorty and mojorty of Pashtoons will show you the way. with out your billion doller in days after American left Afganistan like sigon.